Today, I am going to be looking at the remaining four competitive TX house districts: HD 61, HD 108, HD 112, and HD 138.
TX HD 61
Note: So far when discussing the various TX house districts, I have written about what they currently look like under the existing boundaries and what they will look like for 2022, post-redistricting. However, this isn’t particularly relevant in the case of HD 61, given that the existing HD 61 represents a completely different geographic area than the new (2022) HD 61. When discussing HD 61 below, unless otherwise noted, I am referring to new district that will be in-place starting in 2022.
TX HD 61 is based in Collin County, a suburban county just north of Dallas County. (The existing HD 61 covers heavily Republican rural areas a bit west of Dallas.) Under the new boundaries, HD 61 has trended very rapidly towards the Democrats, as it supported Donald Trump by about just 8 points in 2020, after having gone for him by a much larger margin of nearly 22 points in 2016. In addition, the district is also open this cycle, as the Republican incumbent who was drawn into the district, Scott Sanford, the current representative for TX HD 70, isn’t running for reelection. I’m classifying HD 61 as Likely Republican. With 2022 shaping up to be a favorable year for the GOP, the Republicans should be heavily favored to hold the seat. Still, the district is worth keeping an eye on, given that it is open and how rapidly it is trending blue. Three Republicans are running for the seat: Paul Chabot, who actually previously ran in California for Congress and the State Assembly, Frederick Frazier, who has served on the McKinney City Council, and James Herblin, who previously ran for a TX senate district back in 2012 but lost the GOP primary. Sheena King is the Democratic candidate.
TX HD 108, TX HD 112, TX HD 138
Note: I previously wrote about these districts in separate posts, after the new maps were proposed, but prior to my decision to look at the entire TX House. Therefore, I’m not going to discuss these districts in as much detail. (For those who are interested, the post on HDs 108 and 112 is dated October 8th, and the post on HD 138 is dated November 9th.) All three of these districts are Republican held.
TX HDs 108 and 112 are both located in Dallas County and have become moderately Democratic leaning at the top of the ticket in their current incarnations, with Dem Beto O’Rourke carrying HD 108 by about 15 points and HD 112 by about 10 points in 2018, and Joe Biden only performing about a percentage point worse (in both districts) in 2020. However, Republican incumbents Morgan Meyer (HD 108) and Angie Chen Button (HD 112) have managed to hold on, as they narrowly won these seats in both 2018 and 2020. For 2022, both districts have been redrawn to be quite a bit more Republican leaning, as Trump would have now very narrowly carried them in 2020 by less than a percentage point. Again, the new districts also seem to be quite a bit redder down-ballot as Dem MJ Hegar (in 2020) would have easily lost the new HD 108 by nearly 16 points and would have lost the new HD 112 by a smaller, but still fairly significant 8-point margin. Given Meyer’s and Button’s tendencies to overperform, they should be heavily favored for 2022, so I’m classifying both districts as Likely Republican. Elva Curl, who has previously run for Dallas City Council, is the Democratic candidate for HD 112, while two Democrats are running in HD 108: Elizabeth Ginsberg and Freda Heald, both of whom are precinct chairs for the Dallas County Democratic Party.
Under the existing boundaries, HD 138, which is in Harris County, has been a competitive district, with the Republican incumbent winning the 2018 state house race by a razor thin margin of less than 100 votes and Republican Lacey Hull winning the seat in 2020 by a fairly close 3-point margin, when it was open. Again, the 2022 redistricting has made the district more Republican leaning, as Trump would have carried the new HD 138 in 2020 by a little more than 5 points, in contrast with the current HD 138, which supported Biden by a little more than 4 points. For 2022, I’m classifying the district as Likely Republican. Stephanie Morales is the Democratic candidate for the seat, while Hull has two Republican primary challengers: Josh Flynn, who ran for the seat in 2020 but lost the primary, and Christine Kalmbach. If Hull ends up losing the GOP primary, it’s possible that the district could become more competitive, though unless the national environment also ends up being better for Dems, I probably won’t change my rating for the seat, as classifying it as “Likely Republican” is arguably generous for Dems to begin with.
Thanks to Texas Legislative Council (for the statewide/presidential election results under the new boundaries, as well as the 2020 statewide/pres results under the existing boundaries), Daily Kos Elections (for the remaining statewide/pres results under the existing boundaries), New York Times (for precinct-level data), Texas Secretary of State website (for 2022 candidate list).