Opinion by Hal Brown
I know in advance that you will dismiss this proposition as wild-eyed optimism. If anything unites the vast majority of Daily Kos readers it is their deep cynicism when it comes to any politician with an R after their name ever doing anything ethical or having a moral compass to guide their decisions.
There is something to consider about what most of you may consider an oxymoron, based on how seven senators voted in Trump’s trial, that there may be something as a reasonably good Republican member of Congress. Here are the reasons each of the Republican senators voted for conviction.
Some are retiring in 2022 and some have to run again which is why the next two years are particularly relevant.
The most important Republican senator even though he voted for acquittal of course is Mitch McConnell who is one seat short of becoming majority leader in 2022. Consider this from Politico:
Mitch McConnell voted to acquit Donald Trump, then publicly torched him — encapsulating the dilemma of the man who now must guide a GOP riven by infighting over whether it's the party of Trump or the center-right party he wants them to be.
“My goal is, in every way possible, to have nominees representing the Republican Party who can win in November," McConnell said by telephone. "Some of them may be people the former president likes. Some of them may not be. The only thing I care about is electability."
The Kentuckian made clear that "I’m not predicting the president would support people who couldn't win. But I do think electability — not who supports who — is the critical point.”
The Democrats have two years to assure they keep majorities in both bodies of Congress in 2024. Aside from implementing their agenda they have to make sure they fill all the federal judgeship vacancies with progressive judges. Hopefully older progressive judges with retire opening their seats for younger judges.
Every progressive policy that requires Congressional approval should be put on a two year timetable.
Every change that the Democrats want to put into law won’t be anathema to the few moderate Republicans. One category that jumps to mind involves money and politics. Laws should be passed to prevent another president from doing some of the things that Trump got away with. For example, there should be laws requiring that all presidential candidates release their tax returns for the previous 10 years and another would be spelling out and expanding what is prohibited in the emoluments clause. While it is unlikely and future president not named Trump will do what he did, this would send a stronger message of condemnation to Trump’s supporters if some Senate Republicans voted for them. Off the top of my head: laws assuring the independence of the Department of Justice, nepotism, self-pardons, undocumented meetings with foreign dignitaries, and others should be looked into.
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A digression
I doubt many Republicans worry that they party is on the cusp of becoming a minority party for the foreseeable future. By “cusp” I mean on the way to but not quite there. Here’s a triple D.
Demographics Dictate Democracy
I like how the first part of word demographics comes from the ancient Greek demos, meaning the people which is why the Democratic Party is call what it is. Experts can’t predict when this will happen (America’s electoral future: The coming generational transformation, Brookings Institute, 2019) they agree that it will happen even with Republican attempts to disenfranchise Democratic voters. Most Republican Senators couldn’t give two shits about this. They just want to hang onto their power for at least one more election.
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Many of the votes for the more progressive laws in the Senate over the next two years may be squeakers with Sen. Joe Manchin considered the most conservative Democrat in an evenly split Senate (article) so even one or two Republicans signally their support may convince him to side with the majority of Democratic senators.
Unfortunately with these seven Republicans voting with them the Democrats come up short when it comes to having enough votes to stop a filibuster. This requires a supermajority of 60 votes or 3/5th unless the nuclear option is exercised.
“The nuclear option is a parliamentary procedure that allows the United States Senate to override a standing rule of the Senate, such as the three-fifths vote rule to close debate, by a simple majority, rather than the two-thirds supermajority normally required to amend the rules. The option is invoked when the majority leader raises a point of order that contravenes a standing rule, such as that only a simple majority is needed to close debate on certain matters. The presiding officer denies the point of order based on Senate rules, but the ruling of the chair is then appealed and overturned by majority vote, establishing new precedent. “
If you don’t understand why the filibuster is so important to the Republicans at this time read:
This is where Mitch McConnell comes in. He’d be in a strong position to negotiate with the Democrats to modify their legislation to his liking and avoid their using the nuclear option if he could convince nine more GOP Senators to vote for the Democratic bill this gives the Democrats the 60 votes they need to block a filibuster. The seven Republicans who demonstrated some spine and voted to convict Trump would be the most likely to go along with this so he’d only need two more votes. These could include any Senator up for reelection in a purple state which is leaning Democratic and where they face a popular Democratic opponent but also may include Senators who fear McConnell’s wrath more than they fear the voters at home.