The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Demographics: Daily Kos Elections has published an exhaustive guide on the electoral and demographic statistics for the new 117th Congress members and the districts and states that they represent. The guide includes our calculations of the 2008-2020 presidential election results by congressional district, recent Senate election results and the 2012-2020 House results, and the racial, educational attainment, and income demographics of each district and state. For every member, we have included their race or ethnicity, age, gender, religious affiliation, LGBTQ status, and a name pronunciation guide.
In a new post by Stephen Wolf that explores this data in detail, we have created several charts and maps of the demographics of the new Congress' members, including the map at the top of this post (see here for a larger version) that details the racial or ethnic identification of each House member, which you can also see broken down by party for Democrats and Republicans separately here.
The new House is the most diverse on record, but with people of color only 27% of the overall membership, the House is still much whiter than the general population, which is nearly 40% people of color. However, those numbers diverge sharply by party, with people of color making up 43% of House Democrats but only 8% of House Republicans.
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The Senate, meanwhile, is even whiter than the House at just 11% people of color, and just like the House sees a partisan disparity, with people of color making up 16% of Senate Democrats but just 6% of Republicans. We have also included maps and stats on the gender composition and religious affiliation of the House, which similarly see Democrats as much more diverse than Republicans.
Be sure to bookmark this spreadsheet guide since we will keep it updated when congressional membership changes and new demographic info becomes available.
Senate
● FL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy says she's "seriously considering" a bid for Senate, though she says she's looking both at a race next year, when Marco Rubio will be up for re-election, and in 2024, when it'll be Rick Scott's turn. To that end, she's kicked off a "statewide listening tour," though she didn't offer a timeline as to when she might make a decision.
Politico's Marc Caputo reports that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has encouraged her to challenge Rubio and says that Rep. Val Demings "has also been approached" but seems less interested than her fellow Orlando-area congresswoman. In part that may be because Murphy's swingy suburban district is more likely to be targeted by Republicans in redistricting than Demings' seat, which is considerably bluer.
● NC-Sen: For the first time in a while, Lara Trump, the wife of Donald Trump's son Eric, has spoken up about her possible interest in a Senate bid, telling Fox's Sean Hannity. "I've taken it very seriously and I have no decision to announce. .. But I will tell you, stay tuned, because it is certainly something that I would be honored to do." That's the first time Trump has directly confirmed her interest; in the past, she hadn't gotten any further than declining to rule out a run.
● NH-Sen: Retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who came up short in last year's Republican primary, insists that he won't abandon his second bid for Senate even if Gov. Chris Sununu, the favorite choice of GOP leaders, enters the race. While Sununu recently said he won't decide any sooner than this summer, if he did eventually get in, his name recognition, popularity, and fundraising ability would sorely test Bolduc's pledge.
Meanwhile, a new poll from the University of New Hampshire finds Sununu narrowly edging out Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan 48-46, while Hassan leads former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (whom she ousted in 2016) 48-43, crushes Bolduc 52-39, and obliterates former Trump advisor Corey Lewandowski 53-34. Of this group, only Bolduc is actually running so far.
● WI-Sen: State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, one of several Wisconsin Democrats considering a bid for Senate, will decide whether to enter the race in the spring, per an unnamed spokesperson. Already running for the Democratic nod are Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson.
Governors
● NY-Gov: Lindsey Boylan, a former aide to Democrat Andrew Cuomo, elaborated this week on her earlier accusation that the governor had sexually harassed her, saying in an online essay that Cuomo had fostered a hostile workplace and had once kissed her on the mouth unsolicited. In December, Boylan first publicly charged Cuomo with harassment but did not provide any details at the time. A Cuomo spokesperson denied the allegations, just as Cuomo himself did last year when they first surfaced. Boylan is running in this year's open-seat race for Manhattan borough president; last year, she lost a primary challenge to Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler 67-22.
● NY-Gov: For some reason, term-limited New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio isn't ruling out a bid for governor next year. "I have not made any plans yet for my next steps," said de Blasio when asked about a possible campaign in a new radio interview, adding that he was focused on battling the coronavirus pandemic.
De Blasio's feuds with fellow Democrat Andrew Cuomo have been legendary, but the governor has always gotten the better of the mayor, so it's hard to see why de Blasio would be interested in more punishment. That said, for the first time in his career, Cuomo is facing some united opposition from members of his own party, who are furious over his attempts to conceal the extent of nursing home deaths due to COVID-19. That recently exposed effort has reportedly prompted the FBI to open an investigation into the Cuomo administration, and in addition, Cuomo also faces new sexual harassment allegations (see our separate item just above).
It's still hard to imagine Cuomo, who handily fended off primary challenges from the left in both 2014 and 2018, losing a bid for renomination, and even though he's currently at an ebb, no prominent opponents are actually running against him. It would be an even bigger surprise if Cuomo were to abandon his quest for a fourth term, a goal that eluded his father, the late Mario Cuomo, who was a victim of the 1994 Gingrich wave. But if he were nonetheless to retire, there are plenty of Democratic politicians more popular than de Blasio who could jump in, such as state Attorney General Tish James.
House
● TX-06: Sery Kim, who served in the Small Business Administration during the Trump administration, announced Thursday that she would run as a Republican in the May 1 special all-party primary to succeed the late Rep. Ron Wright. Kim, who is the daughter of immigrants from Korea, would be Texas' first Asian American member of Congress. Another recent arrival to the race is Army veteran Mike Egan, who was twice awarded the Bronze Star.
The Republican who has attracted the most attention so far, though, is longtime party activist Susan Wright, the wife of the late congressman. On Thursday, Wright unveiled endorsements from two congressmen from other Texas seats, Lance Gooden and Jodey Arrington. Wright also has the backing of several other Republicans who had been mentioned as possible candidates: state Reps. David Cook and Tony Tinderholt, Tarrant County Sheriff Bill Waybourn, and Arlington Mayor Jeff Williams.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. Chris Turner said this week that he would stay out of the race. The filing deadline is Wednesday.
