The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NY-Gov: Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who's always behaved as though he's politically invincible, is finally experiencing some genuine vulnerability thanks to a trio of burgeoning scandals: a federal investigation into his efforts to conceal the true scope of nursing home deaths due to COVID, deepening outrage over his abusive treatment of fellow Democrats, and allegations of sexual harassment from former aides. The question, though, is whether any rivals are positioned to seize the opportunity Cuomo's self-inflicted wounds have created—and have the courage to actually take him on in next year's Democratic primary.
At the top of the list is state Attorney General Tish James, the first Black woman to hold a statewide post in New York. The New York Times' Katie Glueck reports, however, that unnamed operatives, while viewing her as "formidable," think she's "risk-averse" and unlikely to challenge the governor.
James, who previously served as New York City's public advocate, could make serious inroads with Black voters, who've long been one of Cuomo's most important bases of support, though she may be reluctant to cross the man whose support helped her win the 2018 primary for her current job. Then again, as Politico notes, James' own investigation into the nursing home crisis is what broke the scandal open. A James spokesperson "declined to comment" about the attorney general's potential interest to the Times.
Campaign Action
One person who's been a little more voluble is James' successor as public advocate (a sort of ombudsman who's first in line to the mayor), Jumaane Williams. Williams, who is also Black, told Politico that Cuomo "appears he's earned himself a primary," though he added "I am not focused on that." He does, however, have experience going up against the Cuomo machine: In 2018, he primaried Cuomo's lieutenant governor, Kathy Hochul, and lost by a surprisingly close 53-47 margin (Cuomo turned back a challenge from actress Cynthia Nixon by a much wider 66-34 spread that same day).
It's possible Williams could target either of the two top jobs in 2022: Glueck says that he "has spoken with allies about the possibility of running for governor or lieutenant governor." (Hochul has yet to say if she'll seek a third term.)
A couple of other pols also haven't foreclosed the idea of opposing Cuomo but neither sound likely to do it. State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi echoed Williams and said, "Any elected official that does not respond to the mandate of the people deserves a primary, myself included," though when asked if she's considering the race, she responded, "No, not today."
Fellow state Sen. Jessica Ramos offered remarks in a similar vein, saying, "We definitely need a true progressive governor, and I would love to see working people in New York coalesce around one candidate," but noted that fundraising would be "a very serious challenge" against Cuomo, who has a $16.8 million war chest.
Both Ramos and Biaggi have taken on entrenched politicians in primaries before. In 2018 they both unseated turncoat Democrats who were members of the "IDC" faction that for years kept Republicans in control of the state Senate, including junta leader Jeff Klein, who fell to Biaggi.
Senate
● GA-Sen: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein adds a couple more Republican names to the pile of potential Georgia Senate candidates: former Rep. Jack Kingston, who very narrowly lost the 2014 GOP primary to now-former Sen. David Perdue, and state Sen. Burt Jones, an extremist Trump supporter who was booted as chair of a key committee by fellow Republicans for leading an effort to overturn last year's election results. There's no word on Kingston's level of interest, but Bluestein reports that the wealthy Jones is "keeping his options open."
● KS-Sen: Donald Trump just endorsed—not by tweet, of course, but by press release—Republican Sen. Jerry Moran's bid for a third term next year, which may foreclose any intra-party challenges. Perhaps the person who will be most disappointed by this turn of events, suggests the Kansas City Star's Bryan Lowry, is CPAC organizer and election truther Matt Schlapp, who "was seen as a potential primary challenger." Lowry says that Schlapp, who considered a Senate bid last cycle but ultimately declined, "did not respond to a text message asking for his reaction."
● OH-Sen: Almost a month after the New York Times' Jonathan Martin reported that Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan would launch a Senate bid in early March, the congressman not only pushed back against that timeline but said he hadn't even committed to a campaign yet. "We'll make a decision here, I guess, in the coming weeks," he told Spectrum News' Taylor Popielarz on Friday, saying of a March kickoff, "I don't think that's going to happen."
● WI-Sen: Democratic Rep. Ron Kind said on Friday that "down the road, I'm sure we'll be taking a look at" a possible bid for Senate, but don't expect him to actually go through with it.
Kind, who was first elected to the House in 1998, has regularly considered campaigns for higher office but has never gone through with it, making him something like the Tim Ryan of Wisconsin. In 2017, he considered a run for governor but opted out; in 2015, his name came up as a potential Senate candidate but he never went for it; in 2013, he initially wouldn't rule out a gubernatorial bid but nothing came of it; he did the same thing in 2011 when the Scott Walker recall began bubbling up; he also said nix to a Senate bid that same year; he passed on a campaign for governor in 2009; and he likewise pulled his name out of contention for governor in 2001.
That's literally every statewide election for Senate or governor that didn't feature a Democrat seeking re-election since Kind first took office. We suppose there is a first time for everything. But then again, even Tim Ryan is finding it hard to commit—just see our OH-Sen item just above.
Governors
● CA-Gov: When asked on Thursday if he might run in a possible gubernatorial recall election, Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, did not quite rule out the possibility, saying, "In the middle of the worst pandemic in 100 years … the last thing anyone should be thinking about, and the last thing I'm thinking about, is politics."
However, many other California Democrats have taken a very different approach, stressing that uniting behind Gov. Gavin Newsom is their foremost goal. State Treasurer Fiona Ma, for instance, recently told Politico, "I'm flattered—but absolutely not. If the recall makes it, I will not put my name on the recall ballot. I play on Team Gavin, all the way."
The idea is to avoid the debacle that wrecked Democrats in 2003, when the party awkwardly pressed the slogan, "No on recall, Yes on Bustamante" in a dissonant effort to exhort Californians to vote against the recall of Gov. Gray Davis on the first question on their ballots but support Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante as a fallback option on the second question.
But the very existence of Bustamante's campaign—he was the only notable Democrat to run—made it harder for Democrats to rally around opposition to the recall in the first place, a task that was made even more difficult when Bustamante himself started to criticize Davis in the evident hope that the recall would succeed and he'd reap the rewards. (He didn't, of course: The prize went to Arnold Schwarzenegger.) So far, no Democrats have broken ranks this time, but of course, that could change at any moment.
● MI-Gov: The AP's David Eggert reports that unnamed Republican politicos say that businesswoman Lena Epstein could try to challenge Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer next year. Epstein lost an open race for Michigan's 11th District in 2018 to Democrat Haley Stevens, who defeated her 52-46 to pick up the seat for Democrats amid that year's blue wave.
House
● TX-06: On Friday, Republican state Rep. Jake Ellzey announced that he would compete in the May 1 all-party primary to succeed his former intra-party rival, the late Rep. Ron Wright.
Ellzey, who is a former Navy pilot, sought this seat in the Fort Worth area when it was last open in 2018. He looked very much like the underdog after he trailed Wright by a wide 45-22 in the first round of the primary, but Ellzey dramatically narrowed the gap in the runoff and lost just 52-48.
That close showing seems to have largely been the result of developments outside of either candidate's control: The Star-Telegram's Bud Kennedy explained afterward that there were several competitive local races in rural Ellis and Navarro Counties that helped boost turnout in Ellzey's strongest areas, while turnout in Wright's Tarrant County base was poor. Two years later, Ellzey decisively won the primary for a safely red state House seat.
Fellow Republican Brian Harrison, a former official at the Trump-era Department of Health and Human Services, also filed paperwork with the FEC Friday ahead of the March 3 candidate filing deadline. However, Fort Worth Police Officers Association head Manny Ramirez announced that day that he would not run for Team Red here.
