The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● FL-01: The New York Times reported Tuesday that Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, who remains one of the most prominent Trump sycophants in Congress, is under federal investigation “over whether he had a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old and paid for her to travel with him.” Federal sex trafficking laws, as the Times explains, “make it illegal to induce someone under 18 to travel over state lines to engage in sex in exchange for money or something of value.”
Gaetz told the paper that the Department of Justice had informed his attorney that the congressman was a subject of the probe, but not its target. “I only know that it has to do with women,” Gaetz said, adding, “I have a suspicion that someone is trying to recategorize my generosity to ex-girlfriends as something more untoward.”
In a separate interview with Axios, Gaetz told reporter Jonathan Swan, “The allegations of sexual misconduct against me are false … They are rooted in an extortion effort against my family for $25 million … in exchange for making this case go away.”
When Swan asked him about the allegations in the Times story, Gaetz responded, “I have definitely, in my single days, provided for women I've dated. You know, I've paid for flights, for hotel rooms. I’ve been, you know, generous as a partner. I think someone is trying to make that look criminal when it is not.” The congressman also insisted he was “absolutely” sure none of the women in question were underage.
Three unnamed sources told the Times that the Gaetz matter was part of a broader investigation into a political ally of his named Joel Greenberg. Greenberg, who resigned as Seminole County tax assessor last year, is set to stand trial in June on 14 different federal charges, including sex trafficking of a minor.
Campaign Action
The Times story broke hours after Axios’ Alayna Treene reported that Gaetz “has privately told confidants” that he was thinking about retiring from his safely red seat, or possibly even resigning, in order to take a gig at the far-right Newsmax. That story did not allude to any possible wrongdoing by Gaetz, who did not respond to the report.
Governors
● NM-Gov: State political observer Joe Monahan relays that Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block says he'll announce a bid next month for the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, though there's no quote from Block.
House
● LA-02: State Sen. Karen Carter Peterson got some very welcome news on Monday when she received the endorsement of progressive activist Gary Chambers, who earned an unexpectedly strong third place in the March 24 all-party primary. Fellow Democratic state Sen. Troy Carter led Peterson 36-23 in the first round of voting, while Chambers was just behind with 21%.
Peterson needs to win the bulk of Chambers' voters in order to make up her deficit for the April 24 runoff for this safely blue seat, and there was reason to think they'd break for her even before Chambers took sides this week. While both state senators have been campaigning as ardent Democrats, Peterson has argued she's the more progressive of the two. Notably, while Peterson and Chambers called for a Green New Deal, Carter merely characterized it as "a good blueprint" that won't be in place for a long time and that he doesn't support. Still, Chambers' endorsement will likely make it easier for Peterson to mobilize his voters next month.
Peterson also got some outside help on Tuesday when the Congressional Progressive Caucus launched a TV ad praising her for pushing Medicaid expansion through a GOP-dominated state Senate. The spot also declares that Peterson is the one contender who backs Medicare for all, a theme she also focused on in the first round of the contest. There is no word on the size of the buy.
● OH-11: Businessman Bryan Flannery, a former state representative who was last on the ballot in 2006 as he was badly losing the Democratic nomination for governor to eventual winner Ted Strickland, announced this week that he would compete in the August primary. Flannery is the only white candidate in a field that includes seven Black contenders.
Flannery tried to address what he called the "elephant in the room" by insisting he wasn't counting on winning by consolidating enough white voters to take a plurality of the vote in this majority Black seat. Flannery instead argued, "I'm going to focus this campaign on the demographics of the district. The Blacks. The whites. The Asians. The Hispanics." He continued by listing more groups including, "The gay and lesbian, LGBTQIA." In 2006, Flannery campaigned as an anti-abortion Democrat who also opposed same-sex marriage.
Data
● Pres-by-CD: We've made a minor adjustment to our 2020 presidential election results for Oklahoma's congressional districts thanks to some newly acquired data that's allowed us to refine our calculations. With this data, we can now allocate unassigned votes in Oklahoma County to their proper districts using what we call our "Total Ballot" method, which we consider more accurate than the approach we had previously used, the "Assigned Votes" method. For more on these methods, please read our new statement of methodology.
As a result of this adjustment, a small number of votes have shifted from the 4th District to the 5th: about 1,800 for Joe Biden, 1,200 for Donald Trump, and 70 for third-party candidates. Consequently, the 4th District became just slightly redder, moving from 65.3-32.3 Trump to 65.6-32.0 Trump. The 5th District, correspondingly, became slightly bluer, moving from 51.5-45.9 Trump to 51.4-46.0 Trump. The state's remaining three congressional districts, none of which are located in Oklahoma County, are unaffected.
