The Delta variant of the SARS-COV-2 virus, the virus responsible for COVID-19 infections, is now the dominant strain in the US and is known to be present — and spreading rapidly — in at least 100 countries. The new strain, which is highly infectious compared to the original COVID-19 strain (which was already pretty infectious), is likely to create a spike in COVID-19 cases in areas where vaccination rates are still low.
How infectious is the new variant? Roughly 225% as infectious than the original strain. The bad news about that is that it means that even if we tweak existing vaccines to be more effective against this new variant, our target vaccination level for herd immunity goes up — to something more like 80 or 85 percent rather than the 70 percent that has been bandied about for a long time now.
Why is Delta so infectious?
New research published this week indicates that the Delta variant replicates much faster in the respiratory tract than the original strain. The end result is that people infected with Delta have as much as 1,000 times as much virus present in their respiratory tract than someone infected by the original strain — and because of this much higher level of virus, is more likely to be shedding larger amounts of virus to infect others.
Further, because of Delta’s fast growth rate, it appears that those infected become infectious sooner, because they reach that “tipping point” of virus levels where they are shedding enough to be infectious sooner. With the original strain, infected individuals became infectious after 6 days on average. With the Delta variant, that timeframe is shortened to just 4 days after becoming infected.
The good news is that while Delta seems to be extremely contagious, in general it does not appear to be more deadly than the original strain (though there is still wiggle room for dispute about that and researchers are still looking at this issue).
What about the vaccines? Do they still work against Delta?
The short answer is yes, they do. The unfortunate part of the longer answer is that while they are still very effective, they are not quite AS effective as against the original strain. However, even if someone who is vaccinated does get infected with the Delta variant, vaccine protection is effective enough to make risk of hospitalization and/or death very low.
There is a caveat to the above: someone who has had only a single dose of one of the two-dose vaccine regimes (by Moderna or Pfizer) are still at very high risk of infection. Studies have shown that the effectiveness of a single dose of one of the 2-dose vaccines is rather ineffective (one antibody study using Pfizer, for example, showed antibodies in only 10% of single-dose blood samples were able to neutralize the Delta variant, compared to 95% of two-dose blood samples) against the Delta variant.
The bad news out of that tidbit above is that as of mid-June, 15 million Americans had missed the ideal window for receiving their 2nd dose. And that puts them at almost as much risk against the Delta variant as not being vaccinated at all. Maybe moreso, because having had one dose, they may be overconfident in their ability to shake off a COVID infection and engage in riskier behavior than is warranted. The good news is there is data to suggest that while a single dose might not prevent infections, it probably does at least reduce the chance of hospitalization or death, so there is that silver lining, at least.
One concerning subvariant, currently dubbed “Delta Plus,” apparently has an additional mutation on the spike protein that seems to make that particular subvariant able to dodge some vaccine antibodies. This seems to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness against this subvariant, though vaccine effectiveness still remains pretty good — just not as good as against the main variant or the original virus.
Unvaccinated clusters in the US might drive new variants
Researchers at Georgetown University identified 30 clusters of counties in the United States with very low vaccination rates that might act as clusters for spikes in COVID-19 infections. As you might guess if you’ve been following COVID-19 news closely at all, most of them are in the South and to a lesser extent in the Midwest.
The five most significant of these clusters span parts of eight US states, including parts of Georgia, Texas, Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Most are small counties but some do include parts of cities like Shreveport, Amarillo and Montgomery. In all the 5 most significant clusters represent about 15 million people, of whom less than 28% are vaccinated at this point — far below what would be needed to stop or even significantly slow the virus spread and far below even the national average for vaccination.
Shweta Bansal, one of the researchers, warns that these clusters and other smaller ones like them are potentially just as vulnerable now as they were in December 2020 before the first vaccines became available in the US. The research team also warns that clusters like these are potential breeding grounds for new variants to crop up, which could further extend the pandemic or even run the risk of a vaccine-resistant variant popping up.
Meanwhile, Delta variant numbers are especially surging in 4 states, 3 of which have vaccination rates below the national average and are geographically neighbors: Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas and, oddly, Connecticut (especially odd given that over 61% of CT’s total population is considered fully vaccinated, and it ranks #5 nationally for the population having at least one shot). An astounding 96% of Missouri’s new cases are now attributable to the Delta variant. Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas are all at or below 40% total population vaccinated, compared to the national average of 47.7%
Vaccination still lags in minority populations
One major factor in determining vaccination status that has been talked about here on DKos is the fact that many Republicans refuse to get vaccinated (the latest ABC poll asking people about it showed that 45% of unvaccinated respondents who were Republican said they had no intention of ever getting vaccinated).
But vaccination also lags in minority populations, for multiple reasons, though the gap has been closing over the last few months. In April, only 18.5% of African Americans and 18.9% of Hispanic Americans had been vaccinated compared to 27.3% of whites (caveat: one big problem with sussing out details about vaccination demographics is that demographic information is only available for about 62% of vaccinations given in the US). New data released this week, shows 25.9 percent of African Americans and 31.9 of Hispanic Americans in the country having received at least one dose, compared to 33.7 percent of whites. The gap between whites and Hispanics has now almost vanished (hooray!!!), dropping from a gap of 8.4% to just 1.8% — still room for improvement, but very, very much improved over just a few months ago. The gap between whites and African Americans, though has only reduced from 8.8% to 7.8% — an improvement, to be sure, but a relatively small one when compared to the jump in vaccination among Hispanics.
Why the gap? I’m not sure anyone has a definitive answer, but in general most experts feel it’s a combination of lack of access to health care (and thus, vaccines), misinformation about vaccines increasing vaccine hesitancy, and historic distrust of the US medical system as a result of past abuses of minority populations by that very system. Biden’s new proposal of “door-to-door” vaccination efforts might help close the remaining gaps significantly, if they can reach into those areas that are resource-poor as far as medical care, and also if they can use local assistance to help overcome the misinformation and distrust (having a vaccinated member of your community knock on your door and have a rational conversation with you about vaccines is probably a lot more likely to sway someone than Dr. Fauci urging people to get their shots from a TV or computer screen).
So what are the latest numbers?
The good news, if it can be called such, is that Dr. Fauci announced that 99.2% of COVID deaths in June were among unvaccinated individuals. It’s hard to call such grim news “good” but really, this is a testament to how effective the vaccines really are. If you’re vaccinated, your risk of dying from COVID drop dramatically compared to if you remain unvaccinated. Don’t assume that eating a healthy diet and “boosting your immune system” (which is not really a thing) by taking vitamins or surrounding yourself with magic crystals or sticking whatever Gwyneth Paltrow thinks you should stick into various orifices of your body or whatever is going to protect you. It’s not. About the ONLY thing I’ve read about that seems to have some actual, if modest, benefit is vitamin D — and that’s not a magic bullet, it’s more a case of the fact that many Americans suffer from vitamin D deficiency, which studies have shown probably is an increased risk factor in developing more severe COVID symptoms. Taking vitamin D supplements (or eating/drinking things that provide vitamin D, or getting a bit of sun, but be careful about that, because skin cancer) doesn’t “boost” your immune system, it’s merely correcting a deficiency if you have one and mitigating a risk factor. Anyway, that’s all a bit of a sidebar conversation, so let’s get back on track...
The latest modeling shows that the Delta variant now probably accounts for nearly 52% of new cases in the US and is present in all 50 states. This represents a fivefold increase in Delta variant cases in just 5 weeks. In areas with high numbers of unvaccinated individuals, it may represent as much as 80% of new COVID cases.
As far as case numbers, the trend is now unfortunately ticking upward. In mid-June, the 7-day average of new daily cases was around 11-12,000 new cases, but since then the trend has been slightly upward, to the point now where the current 7-day average is 14,884 as of yesterday.
The good news is the trend in daily deaths is still downward, though given that there is usually a lag of several weeks or so between new cases and deaths, the real test will be whether that still holds true by the end of the month. Currently, the US 7-day average for COVID deaths is 153 as of yesterday (July 7th), compared to 400 a month earlier on June 7th.
There is, however, a small uptick in the number of hospitalizations nationally over the past couple of weeks, though. The current 7-day average is 2,036.7 new hospitalizations, compared to 1,874.7 from June 23-29th, and almost 9% increase. The largest increase in hospitalizations during that time period is among the 40-49 age bracket (an 18.1% increase) and the 30-39 age bracket (15% increase).
As far as vaccinations, 55.2% of the US population is vaccinated with at least one dose, or 47.7% have been fully vaccinated. Keep in mind that those who have had a single dose may not be very well protected against the Delta variant, as was noted earlier.
67.3% of adults aged 18+ have had at least one dose, or 58.5% have been fully vaccinated. As noted earlier in the diary, the CDC considers about 15 million Americans to have officially missed their ideal “2nd dose window” and are at least 42 days past their first dose.
FDA Still Mum on Full Approval for Vaccines
Despite the fact that over 158 MILLION Americans have been fully vaccinated at this point and we have mountains of data showing how effective the vaccines are at preventing infection, hospitalization, and death by COVID-19 and the only side effects of any significance (apart from the usual allergic reactions) are the blood clotting issue for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine (which isn’t under consideration for full FDA approval yet) and of myocarditis from the two MRNA vaccines — both of which are rare side effects, and in most instances treatable — the FDA has given no indication to outsiders as to where in the full approval process they are at this time.
Pfizer submitted its application for full FDA approval to the FDA on May 9th, while Moderna followed suit on June 1st. So at this point for Pfizer, we’re 2 months into the approval process, which most experts estimated would take from 3 to 6 months. So, we could see the FDA move on the Pfizer vaccine, at least, in the next few weeks. Or not. Maybe it won’t be until November. Or who knows? Not anyone except the FDA, and they aren’t talking. In the meantime, experts are pressuring the FDA to hurry up on approval, citing the Delta variant and the hope that full FDA approval may overcome vaccine hesitancy among the unvaccinated to at least some degree.
In the meantime, Pfizer plans to seek approval for a booster shot
Pfizer announced today that it is performing clinical trials and will ask for an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) as early as next month for giving vaccine recipients a third dose of vaccine, which it hopes will reinvigorate the immune response to the virus and also provide improved protection against variants (no word on if this will be a tweaked version of the vaccine that might account for any variants, or just for the original vaccine). Pfizer says its preliminary data show that patients receiving the third dose show increased antibody response.
SOURCES
“Google can bring you back, you know, a hundred thousand answers. A librarian can bring you back the right one.” — Neil Gaiman
Links to sources I used for this diary provided below, but there are, of course, many more available online if you wish to dig deeper into anything I’ve hit upon here. For all the faith Mr. Gaiman has in my profession, I make no claims to infallibility. :)
That’s all for now, folks. Stay safe, stay sane, and if you haven’t gotten vaccinated get yourself an appointment. And if your friends, relatives, coworkers likewise haven’t gotten vaccinate...have a chat with them. Share this diary with them, or whatever information you think might click with them. Maybe ask them why they haven’t gotten vaccinated yet to see if there’s a path to getting them see the benefit. Worth a try.
Why The Delta Variant Is So Contagious: A New Study Sheds Light
How does the Delta variant dodge the immune system? Scientists find clues.
Racial disparities in COVID-19 vaccination rates persist as delta variant gains steam
What you need to know about the highly contagious delta variant
Five undervaccinated clusters put the entire United States at risk
The delta variant is spiking in these four US states
COVID Data Tracker (CDC website)
Pfizer will seek approval to give people a third dose of COVID-19 vaccine
When Will the FDA Give Full Approval for COVID-19 Vaccines?