As the sports fanatics among you may know, the England soccer team has participated in the Euro soccer tournament in the most ungentlemanly and un-English manner. Not have they had the advantage of playing almost all their games in London, they have persisted in winning their way to the Final. This is of course completely un-British as well. Wales had the good grace to go out in the early rounds of the final stage and Scotland were even greater gentlemen and drew with England.
I suspect that football games in the US have similar parties for big games to watch on TV which can be summed up in three-ish words; (predominantly) men, alcohol and chanting. Big screens are often set up for public viewing, In the UK pubs are also popular viewing sited. During this phase of lockdown law redactions, they can set up tables in their garden or car parks. All appropriately socially distanced of course. Equally obviously, raucous singing and excitable reactions to England goals do not maintain COVID-safe conditions. There is already a significant difference between the rates of new cases in men and women. So England is going to have a nationwide super-spreader event this weekend.
The moronic chant of “In Ger Land” which is a bit slower and uses a little less puff than “U-S-A U-S-A”. Community singing has always been part of soccer. During matches fan will sing as song associated with their team. The most famous perhaps is the association between Liverpool and “You’ll Never Walk Alone”.
With “God Save Our Gratious Team” becoming a bit frowned upon, England fans have adopted two songs, the ones whose singing bawling will contribute to the spread of the Delta variant.
To keep things simple, only parts of the songs are used. At first Neil Diamond’s “Sweet Caroline” may, as a love song, appear strange until you know it’s these lines and the refrain that are sung:
Sweet Caroline
Good times never seemed so good
The other song I find very annoying but was written for the 1996 Euro Finals which were held in England. Baddiel and Skinner wrote the lyrics with a bungled attempt to describe the heraldic animals from the arms of England used by the English Football Association. While England is represented on the coat of arm of Great Britain as a lion rampant supporter, the three beasts on the English arms are clearly bearded. In heraldic term this makes them leopards. “Three Leopard (on my shirt” might need a slight rescan.
“Three Lions” makes several references to the team’s 1966 World Cup win, up till now the last time England reached the final of the World or European championship. The award at the time was the Jules Remet Trophy. The song’s main advantage for community singing is that the opening refrain is repeated four times anyway.
It's coming home
It's coming home
It's coming
Football's coming home
Also sung is the verse that gives the song it’s title [Grrrr..]
Three Lions on a shirt
Jules Rimet still gleaming
Thirty years of hurt
Never stopped me dreaming
In the context of 1996 it was the case that a major championship was being held in the country where the sport started. It later changed to a song of hope for success and to encourage the team after they went ahead. You can understand that with the “30 years of hurt” extending to 55, the song has acquired even greater significance this year.
While this may seem entirely appropriate, the full song is rather less enthusiastic about the team’s chances, hinted at by the alternative for the first refrain which adds
we'll go getting bad results
In the verses preceeding “Three lions ….” this is made even more explict.
Everyone seems to know the score
They've seen it all before
They just know
They're so sure
That England's gonna throw it away
Gonna blow it away
But I know they can play
'Cause I remember
Not so much an expression of confidence, more “look we all know they are going to lose but remember 1966”. Sadly its singing will lead to infection and an increasing number losing their lives. This may be small given the country’s vaccination status but each will be real as the daily figure climbs. It’s already gone up from aroung 10 a day to 30.
The only consulation in the rapid spread of the Delta variant from West to East, vaccines and natural immunity in the young are keeping hospitalisations manageable and deaths low relative to the spread of the Alpha variant.
It’s clear that Boris’s government is deliberately orchestrating a Summertime explosion of mild cases so that England reaches herd immunity by the Fall. That’s when a particularly heavy flu season will start. Masking, hand cleansing and social distancing have meant that there have been virtually no flu cases for the last two seasons. Antibody response from previous infections will have faded considerably over that period.
A continued high incidence of COVID would add to demand on the NHS, possibly to breaking point. From the pandemic phase, the UK will enter the endemic stage. There will be outbreaks which should be controlled by the vaccines. testing and contact tracing.
This is a high risk strategy and reeks of “throw the young to the wolves” It is supported by epidemiologists and other advisors, at least the ones the government is listening to. The vaccination rollout has gone extraordinarily well. Over 65% of over-18s have had two doses and 87% one. These will mainly be under 40s without serious comorbidities.In theory the single dose and natural high immunity should mean most infections will be mild or asymptmatic.
If this strategy works. the UK will achieve herd immunity and firmly enter the endemic stage. Outbreaks are likely to continue for at least 5 years but will be mild for the immune but like flu, more serious or even fatal for the vulnerable.
It may well be that annual “booster” injections will be needed. The UK governments are planning to roll out a third dose from September. This will initially be for those eligible for a flu vaccination. They are broadly health and social care workers, those over 60 or vulnerable because of pre-existing conditions like asthma. The hope is that the booster and flu vaccines can be given at the same time.
A very real risk will be the number of people who develop Long Covid. For some the Liverpool anthem of “You’ll never walk alone” may be terribly true.