This was started as a comment to this report from on the ground in Provincetown, but I realized I had more to say than should be in a comment. I, too, was in Provincetown recently, from July 21 — 24, after the outbreak had been reported. I opted not to change my plans, but did opt to eat at open air dining options (except one place that had me next to an open window, so good ventilation) and did not complain when we had to provide both proof of vaccination and wear a mask to the Judy Gold comedy show.
I also work in healthcare quality — I trained as an economist so am not a medical professional — and have a fascination with the CDC's COVID data, looking forward to its release each afternoon (what can I say? I’m a data geek). The numbers make it clear that the Provincetown outbreak, far from the concern being promoted among too many in the media, was a stress test on the vaccines, and they passed with flying colors.
First, let’s look at the numbers, as of the Saturday, July 31 update, contrasting Massachusetts with a state that is having a known rough time with Delta.
|
Mass |
(7 million residents) |
Arkansas |
(3 million residents) |
|
Most recent |
7-Day Avg |
Most Recent
|
7-Day Avg |
Cases |
931 |
657 |
2,544 |
1,828 |
Deaths |
3 |
5 |
11 |
10 |
Hospitalizations |
162 |
124 |
822 |
873 |
So that means, with more than twice the population, the Bay State has roughly 1/3 the number of cases, ½ the deaths and 1/7 the hospitalizations. Arkansas is facing a critical care bed shortage, while only 5 residents of Massachusetts were hospitalized in the Provincetown outbreak and all are expected to recover. The Mayor of Provincetown tweeted yesterday that the local test positivity rate is back down below 5% and the outbreak is over. Sixty-three percent of Massachusetts residents are fully vaccinated, compared to 36% of Arkansans. The vaccines worked.
We need to really understand what happened here. A huge number of out-of-state tourists, most of them vaccinated, came to a town that was also largely vaccinated, and some of the unvaccinated brought the Delta variant, which evolved to be so infectious because it rapidly builds up in the upper respiratory tract. The variant spread, as it is wont to do, and hundreds have confirmed cases, but the vast majority were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. Remember, though, thousands of vaccinated residents and tourists were exposed to the same variant, at the same events, and never tested positive or had any symptoms that would lead them to believe they had COVID, and Massachusetts’ case rates didn’t explode the way we’re seeing in COVID hotspots like Florida. We also need to remember that the events drawing crowds were aimed at gay men and, not to snitch on my people or anything, but we gay boys have a tendency to make out with strangers when sun, alcohol and summer are combined. Let’s just say the “casual contact” among those exposed includes a range of behaviors.
Vaccines work, of course, because they provide a warning to the immune system to be on the lookout for a nasty virus. For a vast percentage of those exposed in Provincetown, their immune response was so rapid and so strong that, even if they were identified as a close contact & tested, they had no sign of the virus. Others had responses a bit either slower or less robust, so they built up enough virus to test positive, but never had symptoms. For another percentage, the immune response wasn’t quick or strong enough to avoid symptoms, but most were mild and all have either fully recovered or are soon to be so. This is exactly what we want the vaccines to provide us, a fighting chance against the virus.
Certainly there are still concerns with any outbreak. We don’t know if the immune response is enough for those with symptoms is fast enough to avoid the damage from long-haul COVID. It also appears that, at least the symptomatic people, were at one point carrying as much virus as the unvaccinated and symptomatic, so back to mask-wearing it is. But the story from Provincetown and New England in general is that it is good to be vaccinated.