The political press is already unloading on President Joe Biden for what he himself described Monday as a “gut-wrenching” U.S. exit from Afghanistan. Polls suggesting that voters are second-guessing the withdrawal are also emerging.
"Support for Afghanistan withdrawal plummets as Taliban seize control," read a Politico headline about a survey finding a 20-point drop since April in overall support for pulling American troops from the country. What the story failed to relay about that Morning Consult/Politico poll, conducted Aug. 13-16, was that it still showed plurality support for troop withdrawal at 49% compared to just 37% who oppose it.
But yes, the poll showed overall support for bringing the troops home has dropped across parties since April. "Backing for Biden’s withdrawal declined across the political spectrum, including a 15-point drop among Democrats, a 21-point drop among Republicans — the bulk of whom now oppose the move — and a 25-point drop among independent voters," Morning Consult wrote.
The survey took place over this past weekend as Taliban forces rapidly solidified control of the country and ultimately entered the capital of Kabul, the last remaining hope for many thousands of Afghans who fled there for protection. Horrific scenes played out of frenzied Afghans holding onto U.S. planes as they took off from Hamid Karzai International Airport. It is, in humanitarian terms, nothing short of tragic, and it remains to be seen how many Afghan allies the U.S. will succeed in evacuating when all is said and done.
For the moment, Democrats in Washington should expect nothing but a string of sky-is-falling polls accompanied by scathing reviews of the Biden administration's exit. Some of it may be deserved, but most of it likely won't be. President Biden inherited a mess of a war initiated by a Republican president with unimaginable hubris along with a supposedly "historic peace deal" negotiated with the Taliban by yet another hubris-filled GOP administration.
What Biden got undeniably right was his refusal to lie to the American people any longer about a war the U.S. was never going to win and an Afghan government that would never evolve into a functional democracy.
"I’m now the fourth American president to preside over war in Afghanistan—two Democrats and two Republicans," Biden said during his address from the White House on Monday. "I will not pass this responsibility on to a fifth president. I will not mislead the American people by claiming that just a little more time in Afghanistan will make all the difference."
A tragedy is unfolding in Afghanistan in real-time, and, for the time being, surveys are going to reflect that. But the bottom line is, Americans don't want to keep sending U.S. troops to die in a forever war we were incapable of winning. If the argument Republicans want to make in the next couple of election cycles is that we should have sent more Americans to risk their lives for an unwinnable war, have at it.
Ultimately, Americans have short memories, particularly on all matters foreign policy. From a policy standpoint, Biden's handling of the pandemic and the overwhelming popularity of his domestic agenda on jobs, infrastructure, and the country's economic recovery will be the issues that drive the midterms.
Democrats will have a strong hand to play if they manage to secure both the $1 trillion bipartisan deal and the $3.5 trillion Democrats-only bill. They successfully connect the dots for voters on which party made it all possible. Civiqs polling has shown the incredibly consistent popularity of Biden's plans to make historic investments in the nation's outdated infrastructure as a very basic baseline. Since early May, the following question has nearly always polled 20 points above water at 55% to 35%: Do you support President Biden’s plan to upgrade infrastructure, including transportation, energy, housing, schools, manufacturing, internet, and community health care?
President Biden will take some political hits over the next several weeks and likely even months on foreign policy. But Democrats need to keep their eye on the prize—Biden’s domestic agenda.