Let’s assume Larry Elder loses tonight by a significant margin: Just imagine, a right-wing, racist Republican crackpot losing the state of California. I’m not saying he’s going to lose --he may not -- but let’s just go with this a second, okay?.
Despite this recall race’s national notoriety and very real implications, the reality is that not a lot of the rest of this country has been paying close attention to its ins and outs, or have been paying close attention to Elder, except for the people of California and political junkies like us. But most people do know one thing intuitively without paying much attention: they know California is a solidly blue state (yes there were Republican governors in the past but it’s been a long time, and Larry Elder is no Arnold Schwarzenegger). So a Newsom victory will not be a surprise to most. It’ll be what pretty much everyone’s internal circadian rhythm says should happen, whether they are familiar with the latest polling or not.
So let’s just imagine the scenario where this Fox News fool loses fairly bigly and starts screaming his bloody head off, spouting ridiculous theories of hidden servers and China and Venezuela and the like. I know a certain percentage of Republicans will believe it because they’ll just swallow anything (including horse paste). But does anyone see the GOP machinery really going to the mat for this guy? Do you see Tucker Carlson doing entire segments about Larry Elder’s complaints? Carlson may be a bad, terrible person but he isn’t stupid. He has an agenda to follow.
What I think is most likely is that Elder would find himself fairly isolated in his protestations. He’ll try to gin up a circus like in Arizona but he won’t have the rabid fan base of a Donald Trump who can keep the grift running just by the sheer number of his followers. Unlike Trump, Elder’s voters aren’t voting for Elder. They’re voting against Newsom. So there isn’t that personal connection that Trump enjoys with his voters. Basically the guy doesn’t have a lot of friends. He’s too much of a creep.
Because of that he’ll look and sound like a sore loser, and more importantly, he’ll look ridiculous. I mean, it’s California. I don’t even see his own Fox News shifting into high gear for him here because here because a result where Newsom doesn’t win, although it would be pleasant for Fox News and the GOP, is basically counterintuitive. Newsom is expected to win, because he’s a Democrat. So the general consensus in most people’s minds will be: Democrat wins, check, Blue state, check.
But if Elder goes all-out batshit conspiracy 101 after losing big time, the rest of the country takes notice, and not in a good way for him or for the GOP as a whole. Because he’s upset that circadian rhythm. He’s obviously a sore loser. The louder he gets the more people will want him to just shut up and go away. But he’ll still want to make himself the center of attention: that’s what these grifter types do: they all want to emulate Trump.
Elder winning this recall was never really part of the GOP’s overall strategy: their intent with these audits everywhere as far as I can see, is to set the stage for crying fraud in every close Congressional race in 2022 and in the big one in 2024. By making himself look like a damn, petulant fool, Elder might just inoculate many Americans — including independents --to this GOP shtick to the point where they begin to reject it out of hand. Essentially Newsom and Democrats allow Elder to make himself the object of himself the object of ridicule. And when the GOP repeats it, as they seem intent on doing in 2022, millions of people are going to say to themselves “I’ve seen this movie before.” More Democrats will react harshly and negatively to such tactics, and more independents: he/she is pulling an Elder. We shouldn’t underestimate how utterly sick of this crap people are.
Because people really crave certainty, particularly when they vote. They don’t like cheaters and they don’t care for sore losers. Trump was a practiced con man so he could get away with this nonsense and still bilk people into believing him. Elder and the vast majority of Republican politicians do not have similar talents. By whining about his loss and getting firmly roasted for it with ridicule, Elder can make himself Exhibit “A” for Democrats to hold out against any Republican who tries this in 2022. It cements sore loserness and whining as a disgusting Republican brand.
As Beau says, just a thought. Bottom line, if you live in California, get out and vote.