I was perusing some political data and found some interesting numbers. Fresh off of what appears will be about a 20 point landslide win for Governor Gavin Newsom in California, I noticed what at first appeared to be negative news for Team Blue. Namely, President Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40’s. I won’t argue the data or collection methods, because one, it is pointless to spend too much time critiquing random sampling, and two, Quinnipiac is a respected poll.
So let’s say that currently, President Biden is slightly more unapproved than approved. So what? The causes of this are transient, and as long as he makes headway against the pandemic and keeps the economy on the right track, those numbers will right themselves shortly, likely back into the mid 50’s.
Since almost 60 percent of the country is good with the new mandates, and a large majority of veterans agree with him on leaving Afghanistan, I look at this blip as the proverbial “re-break to set the fracture so it can heal” moment. He will come out of this stronger, and as the Republicans continue to make ever bigger asses of themselves, so will the Democratic party.
All that said, it was the other number, the one that makes me think tribalism, even in our party, check mates any approval rating or similar metric. This is a majority Democratic nation, there is no doubt about it. Democrats are probably about 53-55 percent. It shows. While I could not find even one respected poll showing Republicans leading the generic ballot, the very same Quinnipiac poll showed this:
- |
ADULTS |
- |
WHITE |
- |
4 YR COLL DEG |
- |
Tot |
Rep |
Dem |
Ind |
Men |
Wom |
Yes |
No |
Republican Party |
42% |
93% |
2% |
38% |
46% |
37% |
37% |
58% |
Democratic Party |
45 |
4 |
94 |
40 |
39 |
50 |
55 |
32 |
DK/NA |
14 |
4 |
4 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
8 |
10 |
Yes the same poll that shows President Biden at 42 percent approval shows the Democrats leading by three points. While this would not even assuredly keep the house, also nearly as assuredly, President Biden is going to rebound and be more popular. Funny thing is, I am not sure how much it matters in a nation this polarized. There are Democrats, Republicans, and Indies, who always seem to be mad at everybody, and as we saw in California, Democrats are still plenty engaged. In fact, they should be, considering the Republicans have been doing a bang up job at motivating us to vote.
Everything they have done has been designed to obfuscate, detract from recovery, obstruct, and keep us mired in this pandemic, especially the actions of Florida and Texas. For good measure, Texas decided to all but tattoo scarlet letters on women for the crime of “Felony Autonomy.”
Voters are noticing this, and this narrative of “referendum on the President” in 2022 may well be meaningless if no matter how the President is viewed the Republicans are viewed more negatively. Which they are. By a 14 point margin, 37-53 vs. 23-68 Democrats have an advantage. Not that they are popular, but if they could move on infrastructure and voting rights and have a bevy of accomplishments to run on, we could see a sweeping blue wave in ‘22.
So today, celebrate Governor Newsom’s win, and remember, we have a slight lead going into the midterms but we have an offense that can put the game away. We just need to buy into the game plan, get our big ticket items passed, and I believe that, coupled with the rage of the vaccinated, and of course, mounds of hard work, will carry us to landslide victories next November.
Onto VA and NJ. Two great Governors need our help in those places too.
The battle goes on.
-ROC
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-ROC