The UN today announced the world’s largest emitters of carbon are falling woefully short in their pledges to cut emissions to reach the new goal of a 45% reduction by 2030. Rather, under the current scenario, emissions would increase 16%, leading to a temperature increase of 2.7C (4.9F) beyond pre-industrial times.
"It is in sharp contrast with the calls by science for rapid, sustained and large-scale emission reductions to prevent the most severe climate consequences and suffering, especially of the most vulnerable, throughout the world."
A study by Climate Action Tracker found that of the G20 group of leading industrial nations, only a handful including the UK and the US have strengthened their targets to cut emissions.
In another analysis, the World Resources Institute and Climate Analytics highlight how China, India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey - together responsible for 33% of greenhouse gases - have yet to submit updated plans.
It says that Australia and Indonesia have the same carbon reduction targets they did back in 2015 - while the Paris Agreement is meant to involve a "ratchet mechanism" of progressively deeper cuts.
And the study finds that Brazil, Mexico and Russia all expect their emissions to grow rather than to shrink.
"G20 countries must take the lead in quickly cutting emissions to mitigate climate change,” said Sonam P Wangdi, chair of the Least Developed Countries group. "These are the countries with the greatest capacity and responsibility, and it's well past time they step up and treat this crisis like a crisis."
The following are summary points of the 2021 Chatham House Climate Risk Assessment Report released September 14.
- If policy ambition, low-carbon technology deployment and investment follow current trends, 2.7°C of warming by the end of this century is likely, relative to pre-industrial temperatures. A plausible worst case of 3.5°C is possible (10 per cent chance). These projections assume Paris Agreement signatories meet their NDCs. If they fail to do so, the probability of extreme temperature increases is non-negligible.
- Any relapse or stasis in emissions reduction policies could lead to a plausible worst case of 7°C of warming by the end of the century (10 per cent chance).
- If emissions follow the trajectory set by current NDCs, there is a less than 5 per cent chance of keeping temperatures well below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels, and less than 1 per cent chance of reaching the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target.
- There is currently a focus on net zero pledges, and an implicit assumption these targets will avert climate change. However, net zero pledges lack policy detail and delivery mechanisms, and the deficit between targets and the global carbon budget is widening every year.
- Unless NDCs are dramatically increased, and policy and delivery mechanisms are commensurately revised, many of the impacts described in this research paper are likely to be locked in by 2040 and become so severe they go beyond the limits of what nations can adapt to.