On this week’s episode of The Brief, Markos Moulitsas and (substitute host) Carolyn Fiddler dove deep into this fall’s Virginia elections. Special guests Tram Nguyen, co-executive director of New Virginia Majority, and UNITE HERE Secretary-Treasurer Gwen Mills joined the show to offer insights into what we can expect in the Commonwealth this November—and whether the state is as safely blue as some beltway pundits like to think.
Why are people talking about Virginia “becoming” blue when it appears to be a reliably and solidly Democratic state? Well, it wasn’t so long ago that this was far from the case—and Virginia’s shift to the left was “not a full transformation,” as Fiddler explains. A lifelong Virginia resident, she has firsthand experience with its regional diversity and its growing urban/suburban/rural divisions:
The state is a very mixed bag, like most states, but we will see if Democrats are really as strong in the state as many seem to suspect they are … let’s keep in mind that the reason that a lot of people are paying attention to Virginia right now is that it’s very close to DC, and a lot of reporters [there] don’t have other elections to pay attention to this year. So Virginia does get a little bit of outsized attention, but I don’t think it’s outsized at all, because Virginia is incredibly important and has undergone a lot of drastic changes in the last decade and a half.
“Do you have a sense of what the level of engagement and excitement is right now?” Moulitsas asked.
Fiddler thinks there is a high level of enthusiasm right now, which should help former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, though Democrats are playing defense to keep their majority in the House of Delegates. Moreover, the flow of money is telling a specific story, she added: “Donations seem to bear out the fact that a lot of people who are very active in democratic politics—they are not banking on a Republican majority come next January, but of course they’re hedging their bets as they always do.”
A major story the DC press corps seems to be missing, however, is what would happen if Republicans were to take back the House of Delegates, Fiddler said:
That spells very bad things for the future of abortion rights in the commonwealth, so that’s certainly a story. And what’s happening in the suburbs … the current state of COVID in the commonwealth is a big issue, too. A lot of mandates are starting to go into effect … and they’re polling pretty well, and case rates in Virginia are falling almost all the way across the map, and that’s going to be very good for Terry come November.
Moulitsas agreed, adding that much of the lead-up to these elections—not unlike the failed recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom in California—have become a “referendum on COVID safety restrictions.”
Fiddler and Moulitsas welcomed Nguyen and Mills on to the show at this point to kick off a conversation about the current state of organizing and the strength of progressives’ ground game in Virginia.
For organizations like New Virginia Majority and UNITE HERE, “elections are never our finish line," as Nguyen pointed out. Instead, these groups build their strategy around keeping levels of engagement high over time, not only during election years.
“Are you guys seeing any real danger on the ground, or is this just more of an ‘If we do what we need to do and we turn out to vote, then we’re going to be fine?’” Moulitsas asked the guests.
Mills chimed in: “I think there’s definitely a danger. I think Virginia is not a blue state.” She believes it’s very much a battleground, much more akin to a purple state like Nevada and Arizona. What’s more, she is seeing that voter outreach and education remain of the utmost importance:
We talk to a lot of voters on the ground, and most of them that we talk to do support McAuliffe and people in the delegate races that we’re supporting, but too many think that their vote in the primary was their vote, or that their application to get their mail-in ballot was the ballot itself. The door-to-door work, the talking to people, the connecting on peoples’ doorsteps where they’re at—if we don’t do more of that and ramp up beyond what we’re doing, we will not win this election. I don’t think we’re on track to win without more investment in the field.
Nguyen added that her organization has been having great, productive conversations on doorsteps, and while last year was difficult, voters remain invested and generally understand how much is on the line. Many they have spoken with are concerned about moving backwards on healthcare and education if the Democratic state House majority is lost, and the outcomes in Virginia will likely have ripple effects elsewhere, she noted:
Virginia is always a bellwether state—you think about the midterms after every single gubernatorial off cycle that we have in Virginia—it’s a very telling story that folks look to. When we think about 2022 midterms, I think people are going to take a look at Virginia and what happened here as an indication of what they need to focus on, or what voters are going to be important, or what the electorate is going to be.
Both Mills and Nguyen believe that Republican strategies are getting more sophisticated on the ground and that they are making inroads, especially with voters of color. “The Democratic party takes working class voters and young voters for granted … [we need to] talk to people on their doorsteps, to hear about their issues, to just make that human-to-human connection and not just take something for granted based on demographics … [This] needs to be done all the way through to the end and not just the next cycle, and the next cycle,” Mills insisted.
This concern remains a common theme for many guests throughout episodes of The Brief. “It feels like we have this conversation every cycle,” Moulitsas and Fiddler agreed.
Canvassing safely during the ongoing pandemic remains an essential focus for both organizations. Knock rates and contact rates are lower because of COVID precautions, but as Nguyen shared about her work with New Virginia Majority, “people are excited to talk to people again—it’s like, ‘Oh, it’s a human!’ … It’s the most human interaction [many people have had] in a long time.”
Moulitsas agreed that “person-to-person contact can be so incredibly powerful.”
“The conversations have taken on a little more urgency because of how much we have to lose … we could really lose everything that we haven’t even had a chance to celebrate yet,” Nguyen said. She also offered an uplifting aspect of their work, which is that callers are often pleasantly surprised when New Virginia Majority reaches back out after they have already voted. Her organization remains committed to keeping voters engaged in the long term—not just during election cycles.
Fiddler believes that these issues highlight an area of growth for the Democratic Party: “Something that’s always troubled me about the Democratic Party is that infrastructure. Organizations like unions, and organizations like New Virginia Majority that stick around and don’t just go away after an election are so important to building that long term power in states, and I think a lot of that gets lost.”
“I’m super grateful to organizations like yours for not just sticking it out through 2008, or 2010, or 2012, but sticking around and doing that hard work … what would be some advice you have for other groups who are trying to do the work?” Fiddler asked.
“In an off year, the biggest hurdle is letting them know there’s an election [at all] … With young folks in particular, it’s just letting them know there’s an election and talking to them about the issues they care about,” Nguyen replied.
“These elections matter!” Moulitsas emphasized. “It’s great to know that we have incredible people like Gwen and Tram that are on the ground working to make sure people realize, because not everyone’s plugged in and paying attention to politics … If you have the ability to go and knock on doors and make phone calls, please do so. And if you have the ability to donate to these organizations, please do so ... [their work touches] so many people. It is the best bang for the buck in the progressive movement … [donate] to the organizations that are actually registering and turning out voters.”
“Every bit helps for these down-ballot elections,” Fiddler agreed.
You can support New Virginia Majority’s work here or UNITE HERE here.
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