I emailed a friend of mine who lives in California the following:
How nervous are you about the recall election?
I'm watching Lawrence O'Donnell tonight they're talking about it. Larry Elder winning scares the crap out of me.
He answered me:
Less nervous now than I was a month ago.
The group of morons the Reeps have put up are the best thing Newsom has going for him. As much as a nutcase that he is, Elder was smart enough to avoid the TV exposure he would have faced if he had participated in the “debate” with the other candidates. His positions are uniformly out of line with Californians preferences. The more he talks, the more folks will swing away from him and probably also some will swing away from the recall.
I predict* the “No” vote on recall will be around 54-58% of the vote… and maybe even higher.
Keeping fingers crossed because if he loses and DiFi dies the Reeps will assume the majority in the Senate.
Ugh!!!!
(but then my friend added the following)
* I am The World’s Worst Predictor. I would have bet the house that Bush II wouldn’t win. I would have bet my next house that tRump would have not win in 2016 (well, he did lose the popular vote, but…). So don’t put any stock in my predictions.
My answer:
Damnit, just when you reassure me you inform me of your bad prediction record.
DiFi is 88, not reassuring if Elder wins.
This triggered my thoughts about how we’d be a lot better off if Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would have retired when Barack Obama was president and the Democrats controlled the Senate, and how Justice Stephen Breyer, who is 83, as a
Newsweek article tittle says, is signaling he’ll retire before he dies. He may not have any time to assure President Biden can replace him with a Democrat.
.
If Larry Elder becomes governor of California and Diane Feinstein dies the Republicans will control the Senate with Mitch McConnell as their leader.
.
As of 2018 the average life expectancy in the United States was 78.7 years.
CDC report
.
This is an average. It is based on pre-Covid statistics when the 10 leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, chronic lower respiratory diseases, stroke, Alzheimer disease, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, kidney disease, and suicide.
.
It seems to me that Democrats in key positions who’d now be replaced by Democrats but where there is a more than good chance that if they die they will be replaced by Republicans in the future should strongly consider retiring when they are 75 even if they are in good health.
.
I make this suggestion as a 77 year old who and as far as I know is in excellent health. I try to put myself in the place as an official who might be replaced by a Republican if I didn’t retire as soon as possible. I’d like to believe that as important as I might think my continued contribution would be I would still retire.
.
What do you think? That the poll.