The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● Media Markets: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to present a brand-new version of one of our most useful resources: our spreadsheet detailing the overlaps between the nation's congressional districts and its media markets. This database, developed by contributing editor David Jarman, is fully updated for the new districts created as a result of the most recent decennial redistricting process that will be used in the November midterms.
And knowing how these new district lines intersect with the country's 210 "Designated Market Areas" or DMAs (as defined by Nielsen Media Research) is critical to understanding how campaigns, PACs, and parties spend their money on the single biggest expense for most House races: advertising on broadcast television.
Love political ads or (more likely) hate 'em, their ability to reach massive numbers of voters at once will always make them a popular choice for many campaigns. In particular, the people who are likeliest to be watching broadcast TV—older voters—are also often the most reliable voters. And so-called "event television," like major sporting events that most viewers tend to watch live, offer large captive audiences who can't simply fast-forward through advertisements.
But how ad dollars translate into congressional races isn't especially straightforward, because buyers of TV time purchase that time at the level of media markets, which represent regions where viewers can expect to see the same broadcast television stations and in almost all cases bear no resemblance to the lines that states draw for their districts. As a result, every congressional district either takes up just a part of a market, or covers all or part of multiple markets.
So when, for instance, you see a super PAC announcing a $1 million reservation in the Detroit market, what exactly does that mean? Well, that's exactly what our spreadsheet can tell you! It turns out that the Detroit DMA includes the entirety of five congressional districts and parts of three others. But as it happens, only two of those districts, Michigan's 7th and 10th, are actually competitive this year. (Another Daily Kos Elections data set offers a helpful guide: our calculations of how the 2020 presidential election would have gone under the new maps, which show both of these districts as very evenly divided.)
And as we can see further, only the 10th is located entirely in the Detroit market (which, it should be noted, is much bigger than the city itself), while just 31% of the 7th is in Detroit, with the majority in the state capital of Lansing. Standing on its own, therefore, this reservation would likely be targeted at the 10th. However, it's more typical to see major spenders book TV time across multiple markets at once, as the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC did in March when it made reservations in four different Michigan-based media markets—broad enough coverage to sweep in the 7th, as well as the Grand Rapids-based 3rd and the Flint-based 8th.
This data is also useful for grassroots donors because it can help you discover which districts allow campaigns to advertise most efficiently, where "efficiency" is defined as not having to spend much money reaching viewers who can't actually vote for you. This is a huge problem for candidates in expensive media markets like New York City's, where not only are ad prices the highest in the nation, but, at best, just 3.5% of the DMA's 22 million inhabitants even live in your district.
On the flipside are districts like Oregon's 4th, a competitive Democratic-held open seat along the southern Willamette Valley and the state's south coast: 96% of its population is in the Eugene media market, while 89% of people who live in the Eugene DMA also live in the 4th District. Advertising on TV here can therefore be very effective, especially since prices in Eugene, which is the 113th-largest market in the country, are quite moderate.
For more on this one-of-a-kind resource, please check out Jarman's detailed post on the subject. There you'll also find a discussion of a related spreadsheet: our database of presidential elections broken down by media market, which stretches all the way back to 1960. And to bookmark our congressional district-media market tables, just click here.
3Q Fundraising
- GA-Gov: Stacey Abrams (D): $36 million raised, $11 million cash-on-hand
- AZ-01: Tom O'Halleran (D-inc): $1 million raised
- VA-02: Elaine Luria (D-inc): $2.85 million raised, $2.9 million cash-on-hand
- GA-AG: Jen Jordan (D): $1 million raised, $1.4 million cash-on-hand
Advertising
● Advertising: The University of Virginia's Kyle Kondik has taken a deep dive into the ads both parties launched in the second half of September to find out what messages each side is focusing on―as well as what they're staying away from.
Kondik, who writes that he primarily relied on the spots featured in Daily Kos Elections' Ad Roundup, finds that Democrats are continuing to heavily focus on abortion rights in their commercials while Republicans have largely steered clear of the topic. Politico's Ally Mutnick also reports that Team Red's candidates are still unsure "how to respond — if at all — to the Democratic ad onslaught on abortion policy" more than three months since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
For the most part, Mutnick says that Republicans "have largely ignored the negative ads and kept their focus on the economy." However, a few have run commercials where they've deliberately misled and fearmongered about a bill to protect and expand abortion rights, which they've falsely argued would allow "abortion up until the moment of birth."
Still, most Republican candidates seem to be making the same calculation as Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot, who explained to Politico that he'd focus his messaging on "the economy and inflation" as well as opposition to Speaker Nancy Pelosi rather than bring up abortion. "You have limited resources," said Chabot, adding, "you have to spend those resources in what you think is the most efficient and economic way."
Republicans are far more happy to try to portray their opponents as weak on public safety, though Kondik writes that "Democrats seem to be engaging on crime/law enforcement more than Republicans are on abortion." A summer DCCC memo encouraged candidates to, in the words of CNN, "offer a clear and direct rebuttal in their public messaging and advertising; highlight specific examples of where Democrats have funneled money toward the police; and enlist at least one active or retired member of law enforcement who can validate their record on crime and public safety," and plenty of nominees have adopted that strategy to rebut their opponents.
Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who is campaigning for Oregon's 5th District, recently used this advice in a spot pushing back on GOP attacks, though she went even further and argued that her Republican foe was the one hostile to law enforcement. After telling the audience that McLeod-Skinner would "never defund the police" and "pushed to increase funding for police," former Bend police chief Jim Porter declares that Lori Chavez-Deremer "defended the actions of the Jan. 6 rioters even after police were attacked and injured."
Everytown for Gun Safety, meanwhile, ran a commercial in the Pennsylvania Senate race, where Republicans have spent a great deal of money portraying Democrat John Fetterman as weak on crime, arguing that Republican Mehmet Oz's opposition to gun safety laws endangers women and police. "Mehmet Oz would make it easier for domestic abusers to get guns, even opposing background checks on all gun sales," the narrator says, continuing, "That's why 911 calls for domestic violence are among the most dangerous for women and police."
Kondik also writes that, while a common Republican tactic is to tie their opponents to President Joe Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump has only "made an appearance here and there" in Democratic messaging. Both sides so far also have largely refrained from airing commercials focused on the Biden administration's college loan debt forgiveness, though the topic did come up in a recent Senate Leadership Fund ad against North Carolina Democrat Cheri Beasley.
Senate
● CO-Sen, CO-Gov: The Democratic firm Data for Progress finds Sen. Michael Bennet leading Republican Joe O'Dea 50-41 as his fellow Democratic incumbent, Gov. Jared Polis, posts a wider 56-39 edge over Republican Heidi Ganahl.
Meanwhile, Politico reports that the Senate Leadership Fund has contributed $1.25 million to the conservative American Policy Fund, which in turn has now spent a similar amount to help O'Dea; the organization is also funded by construction company owners and billionaire Timothy Mellon. Bennet’s allies at the League of Conservation Voters also launched a new $1.3 million buy on Friday: Politico writes that Democrats so far have spent or reserved $18 million here compared to $12 million for the GOP.
● FL-Sen: Republican incumbent Marco Rubio is airing a commercial tying Democrat Val Demings to what he calls the "radical left" that features a shot of a drag queen reading to children, and this unwilling cast member is making it clear just what she thinks of the senator.
Lil Miss Hot Mess, who lives in Arizona, put out a video where she asked, "Why are you so obsessed with me and Drag Story Hour?" After declaring, "We're simply out here reading books to children, encouraging them to use their imagination to envision a more just and fabulous world," she added, "You, on the other hand, are out here during a hurricane that is pummeling your state spreading hateful, homophobic, and transphobic bigotry."
● NH-Sen, AZ-Sen: AdImpact reported Friday that the NRSC had canceled the entire $2.6 million reservation it made in the Boston media market, which covers most of New Hampshire, and the committee soon confirmed it would redeploy the money to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. (AdImpact later added that the NRSC also cut $400,000 in other New England markets.) The news broke just hours after Politico reported that the NRSC had made a new “seven-figure" investment in Arizona, which includes TV ads and mailers; in mid-August, the committee slashed $3.5 million from its planned reservation there amidst a cash crunch.
While NBC had reported just a week earlier that the NRSC had booked an additional $1.1 million in the Granite State, committee spokesperson Chris Hartline claimed the change in course came about because of "Republican outside forces showing up in a big way in New Hampshire, with millions in spending pledged to take down Maggie Hassan in the final stretch.”
Indeed, the organization’s far better-funded allies at Senate Leadership Fund have spent or reserved a total of $23 million to help Republican Don Bolduc, with a Hassan spokesperson saying the super PAC still has $14 million in bookings left between now and Election Day.
Hassan’s campaign has also warned that the NRSC could spend some of this money to finance a type of joint commercial with Bolduc known as a hybrid ad. This sort of arrangement, though, would require it to split the cost with Bolduc, who raised an unimpressive $1 million in the third quarter of 2022, a period that also included New Hampshire's primary.
● Senate: Donald Trump’s newly-established super PAC, known as MAGA Inc, has begun to book ad time in several key Senate races, though we only have preliminary reports of how much it's reserved so far. Here are where things stood as of Monday:
- AZ-Sen: $1.16 million
- GA-Sen: $954,000
- NV-Sen: $650,000
- OH-Sen: $1.45 million
- PA-Sen: $829,000
The group’s Ohio commercial is online, and it tries to tie Tim Ryan to national Democrats. The Wall Street Journal also says that the Pennsylvania spot portrays Democrat John Fetterman as weak on crime, which has been a popular GOP line in this race.
Governors
● OK-Gov: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt on Friday publicized a late September WPA Intelligence internal giving him a 48-33 edge over Democrat Joy Hofmeister, which came after two earlier polls showed the governor ahead by just 1 and 3 points, respectively.
● OR-Gov: After donating $3.75 million to promote independent Betsy Johnson, Nike co-founder Phil Knight switched sides on Thursday and contributed $1 million to Republican Christine Drazan.
Knight last funded Johnson back in early September, though that $2 million donation only became public knowledge in recent days. However, OPB relays that, over the last week, rumors have swirled that Oregon's wealthiest man was "unimpressed by Betsy Johnson's stagnant poll numbers in the race for governor" and thinking about supporting Drazan instead. Indeed, recent surveys have given Drazan a small edge over Democrat Tina Kotek, with Johnson mired in third.
Knight's largess has already helped Drazan obtain the largest war chest in the race in a state where there are no campaign contribution limits. While the Republican trailed both her opponents in cash-on-hand just days ago, Drazan finished Thursday with a $3.5 million to $2.3 million advantage over Kotek, while Johnson was in third with $1.8 million.
We won't need to wait long to see if other wealthy Johnson donors follow Knight into Drazan's camp because, while candidates in most states only need to disclose their donations and spending a few times a year at the end of a defined period, the Beaver State has very different rules. Starting on Sept. 27, candidates were required to report new contributions and disbursements within seven days instead of the 30-day window that exists for most of the campaign cycle.
● RI-Gov: Fleming & Associates, polling on behalf of WPRI and Roger Williams University, shows Democratic Gov. Dan McKee fending off Republican Ashley Kalus 45-32 in the first survey anyone’s released since the mid-September primary. The school also surveyed the race for the 2nd Congressional District but sampled just 254 respondents, which is below the 300-person minimum we require for inclusion in the Digest.
House
● CA-45: Republican Rep. Michelle Steel has debuted a commercial where she bemoans that China has "enormous power in America" and declares she's "fighting to ban communist propaganda in our schools," a missive that came days after she send out a Vietnamese-language mailer showing a bogus graphic of opponent Jay Chen teaching students about communism.
The Democrat was shown in front of a blackboard reading, "Jay Chen invited China into our children's classes" in a classroom filled with pictures of Che Guevara, Ho Chi Minh, and Mao Zedong among others. Alongside those deceased communist figures were images of the Democratic donkey, the male and female gender symbols, and what the Los Angeles Times describes as a "drawing of a Black child standing on the highest pile of books to be at the same level as two white children, under the word 'equity.'"
Chen responded by highlighting the fact that his grandmother fled China after the Communist Party took power and his own service in the U.S. Navy Reserves. "In the span of only a few days, Michelle Steel—who has never worn a military uniform—preyed upon generational trauma in the Vietnamese community," said his campaign manager, adding that Steel "pushed a patently untrue narrative that a Taiwanese-American is affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party, and attempted to defile a decorated Navy veteran's reputation and allegiance to the United States."
● FL-27: Democrat Annette Taddeo is out with a survey from SEA Polling that shows her edging out freshman Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar 47-46 for a seat in the Miami area that Trump would have taken by a similarly tight 49.9-49.6. While this is the first poll we’ve seen here in over two months, Salazar’s allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund recently booked $2 million to defend her.
● NY-12: The House Ethics Committee announced Friday that it was investigating Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who lost her primary to fellow incumbent Jerry Nadler in August, though it didn't reveal any details. The body said it would "announce its course of action in this matter" by Nov. 21, which is less than a month-and-a-half before Maloney's final term expires.
● OH-09: Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is airing a commercial attacking Republican J.R. Majewski for lying about serving in Afghanistan, an offensive that comes weeks after his allies at the NRCC canceled their planned spending. The ad features several clips highlighting how Air Force records contradict Majewski's "claims on the campaign trail" before a narrator declares, "When he lies about his deployment, he disrespects everyone who's proudly worn our nation's uniform."
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● MN-SoS, MN-AG: SurveyUSA's new poll for KSTP shows Secretary of State Steve Simon leading election denier Kim Crockett 42-40 as his fellow Democrat, Attorney General Keith Ellison, posts a similar 45-43 edge over Republican Jim Schultz; last month, the firm had Simon and Ellison ahead 42-38 and 46-40, respectively. These new numbers come from a larger poll that put Democratic Gov. Tim Walz ahead 50-40.
The last poll we saw of these two downballot races was a mid-September Mason-Dixon survey that had Simon up 48-40 as Ellison posted just a 46-45 edge. Since then, the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State and iVote have begun airing ads to boost Simon and highlight Crockett's far-right views.
A recent iVote commercial went after the Republican for having made "ugly remarks about Somalis, which got her suspended without pay from her job." That line is a reference to Crockett's 2019 comments where she said of Somali immigrants, "These aren't people coming from Norway, let's put it that way. These people are very visible." The narrator then highlights how the state GOP chair had to apologize in May when Crockett showed an antisemitic campaign video to the party convention that depicted Holocaust survivor George Soros as a puppet master controlling Simon, who is also Jewish.
Judges
● IL Supreme Court: The conservative Citizens for Judicial Fairness, which has about $5.5 million to spend thanks to funding from conservative mega donor Ken Griffin, is airing an ad tying two Democratic candidates for the Illinois Supreme Court to former state House Speaker Mike Madigan, who remains the state GOP's favorite foil almost two years since he involuntarily stepped down. (Madigan subsequently was indicted in March on 22 counts of racketeering and bribery.)
Rather than air separate ads against the two Democrats running in competitive races, 2nd District nominee Elizabeth Rochford and 3rd District contender Mary O'Brien, Citizens for Judicial Fairness opts to attack both at once. The offensive comes shortly after the Democratic group All for Justice unleashed its own $3 million buy that also went after their Republican rivals, Mark Curran and appointed Justice Michael Burke, with one ad. Democrats currently control the state Supreme Court 4-3, and they need to win at least one of these two contests to retain control.
Ad Roundup
