The relationship between the United States and the journalist-killing Saudi Arabian monarchy is deteriorating quickly after the OPEC Plus decision to further cut world oil production, a move publicly blasted by the United States as an attempt to bolster consortium member Russia's efforts to starve Europe of energy in the coming winter as means of pressuring European nations into reducing their support for Ukraine.
National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby appears to be the official dispenser of the Biden administration's ire. In a Tuesday CNN appearance, Kirby strongly signaled that the Biden administration might be willing to support congressional calls for substantive retaliation against the kingdom, possibly including a partial or total freeze of U.S. arms sales. Sen. Richard Blumenthal introduced a bill this week calling for a one-year arms embargo against Saudi Arabia, halting even "spare and repair parts" and "technical and logistical support services."
That would be an enormous shift in the U.S.-Saudi relationship; the kingdom has been a big spender when it comes to U.S.-developed military gear, and a freeze of even spare parts shipments might significantly reduce Saudi military capabilities for the near future. That's a move that wasn't made when the United States came to the conclusion that the Saudi monarchy ordered the murder of a Washington Post columnist who had angered the kingdom, nor when the United States and the rest of the world were condemning Saudi atrocities against civilians in Yemen.
But President Joe Biden had been taking on significant political risks in an attempt to patch up U.S.-Saudi relations this summer, including with a July diplomatic trip to the kingdom, so the White House could well see the OPEC Plus move to shore up Putin as a specific rebuff. He wouldn't be wrong. The Saudi monarchy has cozied up tight to the remnants of the Trump administration, throwing money at both Trump himself and at Trump's solver-of-all-problems Jared Kushner. But their diplomatic efforts don't seem to extend to the current U.S. government, and there's been broad speculation that the Saudi government is trying to send gas prices soaring not necessarily to boost Putin, but to boost Republican chances in the rapidly nearing midterm elections.
Kirby's Tuesday statements really put a bee in Saudi bonnets, however. Via CNN senior White House correspondent Phil Mattingly, the kingdom has now released a long and snippy statement denying the accusation that the OPEC Plus decision was intended to boost Putin's attempted sabotage of European energy markets, and rejecting the notion that Saudi Arabia strong-armed smaller OPEC Plus members into going along.
Yeah, that didn't go over well. On the contrary, Kirby and the White House have now responded with the diplomatic equivalent of a flaming paper bag on the Saudi porch. They're mad.
"The Saudi Foreign Ministry can try to spin or deflect," Kirby says in a statement, but "the facts are simple."
"We presented Saudi Arabia with analysis to show that there was no market basis to cut production targets, and that they could easily wait for the next OPEC meeting to see how things developed. Other OPEC nations communicated to us privately that they also disagreed with the Saudi decision, but felt coerced to support Saudi's direction. As the President has said, we are reevaluating our relationship with Saudi Arabia in light of these actions, and will continue to look for signs about where they stand in combatting Russian aggression."
That's very harsh language in diplomatic circles. The administration doesn't appear to be convinced that a move to spike oil prices right before an already-precarious European winter or an American election that will play a large role in determining whether America itself shifts toward authoritarianism was a purely economic decision.
To be blunt, the Saudi monarchy hasn't done much to convince U.S. diplomatic leaders that Saudi Arabia is willing to make concessions of its own, even as it demands U.S. forgiveness for the murder of a journalist, the whitewashing of atrocities in Yemen, decade upon decade of predatory manipulation of oil markets and omnipresent human rights abuses, and the overlooking of what appears to be a Putinesque decision to boost and bribe Trump-connected figures in order to tweak the U.S. elected government into something more favorable to its interests.
As of yet, however, all this is for show. The Biden administration’s threats to "reevaluate" Saudi relations are meant to provoke either some signal from the Saudi monarchy that they're willing to help thwart Putin's energy hostage-taking in Europe or, at the least, won't actively boost it.
Whether the Saudi dictatorship can offer any concession large enough to paper over state-sanctioned murders and newly brazen efforts to meddle in American politics is an open question. If Republicans prevail in the midterm elections, the Saudi monarchy might choose to stonewall U.S. diplomats for the next two years, banking on Kevin McCarthy, Mitch McConnell, and a possibly returning Donald Trump to re-reset our policies once again. Perhaps in exchange for financing another Kushner-led investment fund.
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