The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● 3Q Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to unveil our new charts rounding up third-quarter fundraising numbers for every major-party nominee for both the House and the Senate, as well as notable third-party candidates.
We'll start with the Senate, where Democratic candidates outraised their GOP opponents $193 million to $104 million among donors—that is, excluding any self-funding—for a margin of 64-35; the balance went to Utah independent Evan McMullin, who hauled in $2.5 million for the quarter. That's down from the 71-29 advantage Team Blue enjoyed at the same point in the 2020 cycle, but it's still left many Republican contenders relying on super PACs to get their message out.
However, as we frequently emphasize, candidates for federal office get considerably more bang for their buck because FCC regulations give them—but not outside groups—discounted rates on TV and radio. That's had a profound impact on the air wars this year.
In Arizona, for instance, the local GOP pollster OH Predictive Insights reports that Republican Blake Masters and his allies actually outspent Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly's side in advertising 51-49 during the week of Oct. 10. But Masters and his supporters aired far fewer spots, resulting in a 76-24 advantage for Democrats in gross ratings points (or GRPs), which measure how many times, on average, members of an ad's target audience have seen it.
Masters is in this mess in large part because Kelly outraised him by a mammoth $22.4 million to $4.2 margin from July 1 to Sept. 30 (Masters self-funded an additional $870,000). The situation is unlikely to change, since Kelly finished the period with a $13.2 million to $2.8 million advantage in cash-on-hand and has almost certainly continued to bring in hefty sums.
Overall, Democratic candidates for the House also enjoyed an edge over the GOP, albeit by a smaller $176 million to $145 million, for a ratio of 55-45. However, this gap is actually considerably wider than it was in 2020, when Team Blue outraised Republicans 52-48 in the third quarter.
Democratic contenders have an even bigger advantage in the 59 races where at least one of the four major House outside groups (the DCCC and House Majority PAC on the left and the NRCC and CLF on the right) have spent money through Monday. In those contests, Democrats have raised $76 million versus $49 million for the GOP, a 61%-39% disparity.
Republican super PACs, however, are far better-funded than their Democratic counterparts: CLF has outspent HMP $122 million to $41 million, for instance. Similarly, the Senate Leadership Fund has raised $225 million this cycle while the Senate Majority PAC has taken in $165 million. That's led to plenty of public speculation from Democrats who fear that, even though their candidates have more cash, they won't be able to hold out against an onslaught of GOP outside money.
Of course, as numerous well-funded contenders have learned the hard way, even a huge financial edge by no means guarantees victory even in competitive races. That's because, while campaigns and their allies need plenty of resources to get their message out, they'll eventually hit the point where most voters have seen their commercials over and over again.
In other words, all candidates, party committees, and PACs eventually hit the point of diminishing returns, where they're dropping more and more money to reach voters who are largely already quite familiar with their pitch. The more important thing to consider, rather, is whether a candidate has the resources to both hit that point and stay on the air for the remainder of their campaign rather than who is outspending whom. Of course, it's impossible to know if and when any campaign or group has reached such a point, which is why you'll have to search far and wide to find a candidate who's ever turned down more money.
And while GRPs can measure how often your audience has seen your ads, there's simply no way to know how many viewers can still be persuaded with another $1 million in commercials. That's especially true in an age where fewer and fewer people watch ads on TV and need to be reached through other methods like digital advertising. Given this reality, no party ever wants to be decisively outspent in a winnable race, and candidates and super PACs will keep airing ads through Election Day to make sure that doesn't happen.
Senate
● CO-Sen, CO-Gov, CO State Senate: The League of Conservation Voters has deployed an additional $1.7 million to aid Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, while the American Policy Fund is spending $1.5 million against him. According to analyst Rob Pyers, Bennet's outside group allies have outspent Republican Joe O'Dea's backers $12 million to $6 million through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Everytown for Gun Safety has announced that it will spend a total of $2.7 million on TV and digital spots in the Denver media market on three separate races. The group is dropping $1 million to help Democratic state Rep. Tom Sullivan defend the open 27th state Senate District, which would have supported Biden 56-42, against Republican Tom Kim in suburban Arapahoe County. The remainder is split between commercials tying O’Dea to “MAGA Republicans” and aiding Democratic Gov. Jared Polis.
● Polls:
GA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R): Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 46, Herschel Walker (R): 43, Chase Oliver (L): 4 (Early Oct.: 47-44 Warnock)
GA-Sen: Landmark Communications (R): Warnock (D-inc): 46, Walker (R): 46, Oliver (L): 3
PA-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for the AARP: John Fetterman (D): 48, Mehmet Oz (R): 46 (June: 50-44 Fetterman)
GA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage, which "debuted" its numbers for Sean Hannity on Fox News, strangely wrote that Warnock led by only 46-44, which it took as evidence that Walker "has narrowed the race by a point in one week." InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery also insisted that a December runoff would be bad news for the senator because "[i]ncumbents don't win runoffs in Georgia," which would be news to still-Public Service Commissioner Bubba McDonald.
Governors
● AZ-Gov, AZ-Sen: The GOP firm HighGround Public Affairs' new survey for the local TV station Arizona's Family finds Democrat Katie Hobbs edging out Republican Kari Lake 46-45 for governor as Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly posts a similarly small 42-40 edge over Blake Masters; the Senate survey also shows Libertarian Marc Victor grabbing a potentially crucial 5%. Most other firms have found Lake running well ahead of Masters.
Lake, meanwhile, is airing a new commercial with the Yuma County GOP attacking Hobbs for refusing to debate her, a topic that has generated stories for weeks. Hobbs has continued to defend her decision by pointing to the Republican primary debates where Lake was given a platform to deny the results of the 2020 election. "I have no desire to be a part of the spectacle that she's looking to create, because that doesn't do any service to the voters," the Democrat argued.
● NV-Gov: Steve Sisolak (D-inc): $3.2 million raised, $1.2 million cash-on-hand; Joe Lombardo (R): $2.3 million raised, $1.8 million cash-on-hand
● NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Quinnipiac University released some startling numbers Tuesday when it found Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul fending off Republican Lee Zeldin just 50-46, which is the closest result that any independent pollster has found in this very blue state. Siena College that same day gave Hochul a stronger 52-41 edge, though that was still a drop from her 54-37 advantage in late September.
It's possible Quinnipiac just got a disproportionately conservative sample, especially since the school shows Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer leading his little-known Republican rival, conservative activist Joe Pinion, only 54-42; Siena, by contrast, had the incumbent ahead 57-37. Schumer turned in a 66-32 performance even amidst the 2010 red wave and won 71-27 six years later, though the senator may have a tougher time now that he's become the Democratic leader and a favorite target for the GOP base.
● OK-Gov: The RGA is spending $430,000 on a week-long buy starting Thursday, a development that comes as multiple polls show Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt in a shockingly competitive race against Democrat Joy Hofmeister. The RGA, which also got involved in the 2014 and 2018 races, says it will spend "seven figures" in a contest where outside groups have been massively outspending Stitt.
The RGA's opening ad comes a week after Stitt aired his first negative spot against Hofmeister, and like the governor, it declares that Hofmeister and Biden are jeopardizing Oklahoma jobs by pushing for tax increases on the oil and gas industry. As we've noted before, Republicans successfully linked Team Blue's last two nominees for governor to national Democrats, who have long been unpopular in the Sooner State.
Hofmeister, who left the GOP last year, very much wants to avoid becoming the next victim of this strategy, and she used a recent forum hosted by the Petroleum Alliance to push back on Stitt's attempts to link her to the Biden administration. She told her audience, "We know that this industry, the energy sector, has been under attack and I empathize. You are key in keeping our state economy moving forward and you cannot be villainized or demonized." She also argued that both Biden and Stitt "have not done enough" to help America achieve energy independence, citing the "hundreds of wells that are not online."
● Polls:
GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (R): Brian Kemp (R-inc): 50, Stacey Abrams (D): 43 (Early Oct.: 50-45 Kemp)
GA-Gov: Landmark Communications (R): Kemp (R-inc): 51, Abrams (D): 45, Hazel (L): 2
IL-Gov: Research America for the Illinois Broadcasters Association: J.B. Pritzker (D-inc): 50, Darren Bailey (R): 28
PA-Gov: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for the AARP: Josh Shapiro (D): 53, Doug Mastriano (R): 42 (June: 49-46 Shapiro)
House
● AZ-02: The DCCC is airing its first ad against Republican Eli Crane in the latest sign that Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran isn't finished in this new 53-45 Trump constituency. The spot, which follows $1.7 million in spending by the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund, attacks Crane on abortion and declares he "promoted conspiracy theories spread by white supremacists, dividing America and threatening our democracy." The second half of the commercial touts O'Halleran's previous career as a police officer and praises him as "an independent voice for Arizona."
● NY-17: Punchbowl News reports that the Congressional Leadership Fund has booked another $4 million to target DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in a lower Hudson Valley constituency that Biden would have won 54-44. CLF and the NRCC have already spent a total of $1.9 million through Monday to help Republican Assemblyman Mike Lawler, while neither the DCCC nor its allies at House Majority PAC have deployed anything yet for the incumbent.
● WI-03: While Axios reported last week that House Majority PAC has canceled its planned reservations, the NRCC isn't acting like the race for this 51-47 Trump seat is over yet. The committee is launching its first spot against Democrat Brad Pfaff, which predictably accuses him of wanting higher taxes and more spending. The narrator thrice asks, "What the Pfaff?" which someone must have found funny somewhere.
● Polls:
CT-05: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for George Logan and the NRCC: Jahana Hayes (D-inc): 48, George Logan (R): 46 (June: 46-41 Hayes)
MN-02: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV: Angie Craig (D-inc): 46, Tyler Kistner (R): 45, Paula Overby (Legal Marijuana Now): 5
NC-01: GQR (D) for Don Davis: Don Davis (D): 54, Sandy Smith (R): 39
VA-10: OnMessage (R) for Hung Cao: Jennifer Wexton (D-inc): 43, Hung Cao (R): 41
CT-05: This is the first survey we’ve seen in months out of this 55-44 Biden seat in northwestern Connecticut, where major Democratic and GOP outside groups have each spent around $2.5 million.
MN-02: This is also the first recent poll we’ve seen for this constituency in the southern Twin Cities suburbs, which would have supported Biden 53-45.
Overby, who took 8% under a different third party banner in the 2016 contest, remains on the ballot even though she died two weeks ago. One political scientist explained, “Paula Overby needed to be in this survey, and it needed to be presented as the voters will find Paula Overby on the ballot because when they go in on Election Day, they’re not going to receive a special notice that, ‘Hey, by the way, this person is deceased.'"
VA-10: No one has released any numbers until now for this 58-40 Biden district in Northern Virginia, and there has not been any major outside spending here. Indeed, the GOP may want a lot more data before it gets involved after what happened here in 2018 when the NRCC inexplicably kept shoveling money to rescue Rep. Barbara Comstock even as most signs foreshadowed her defeat. Wexton, to the surprise of no one except maybe the NRCC, went on to beat Comstock by a 12-point margin.
While Cao has yet to get any major super PAC aid, however, he proved to be a strong fundraiser during the third quarter. Cao outpaced Wexton $1.3 million to $900,000, though the incumbent finished September with a wide $3.1 million to $990,000 cash-on-hand lead.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● GA-AG, GA-SoS: The GOP firm Landmark Communications has released numbers for the races for attorney general and secretary of state:
GA-AG: Chris Carr (R-inc): 47, Jen Jordan (D): 40, Martin Cowan (L): 4
GA-SoS: Brad Raffensperger (R-inc): 47, Bee Nguyen (D): 36, Ted Metz (L): 9
Two other pollsters have publicized numbers this month. SurveyUSA showed Carr and Raffensperger ahead only 40-36 and 39-36, respectively, while the University of Georgia put the red team up 47-39 and 48-34.
● MN-AG, MN-SoS: The news site MinnPost is out with new numbers from Embold Research:
MN-AG: Keith Ellison (D-inc): 47, Jim Schultz (R): 47
MN-SoS: Steve Simon (D-inc): 48, Kim Crockett (R): 41
This sample favored Democratic Gov. Tim Walz 47-42.
Embold Research is a division of the Democratic firm Change Research, which announced last year that it was creating a “new, nonpartisan business unit and brand.” In May, MinnPost released numbers under the Change Research banner that put Schultz ahead 45-44, while it did not poll the secretary of state’s race.
Earlier this month, SurveyUSA showed Ellison and Simon ahead by identical 2-point margins.
Ad Roundup
Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.
