Democrats fire up ground game as early voting surges
Early voting continues to soar in Georgia, with data indicating that higher proportions of Black voters are casting ballots so far than in the last two election cycles.
One reason behind the rising totals is a coalition of grassroots organizations that styles itself as the “closers” of election cycles.
A reminder from AP that first week early voting was always the plan for Democrats. That’s because mail-in has been nerfed (details in the AP story as to how, but whereas early vote is comparable to 2020, mail in vote has dried up. That’s why both “as robust as a presidential” and “only half the presidential vote” are both true. One looks at early vote only, the other is total vote.) Still, you only get big numbers for a midterm when both sides turn out, so don’t try reading tea leaves just yet.
You can see on that graph how mail-in has dried up, so switching to early vote is a deliberate strategy.
Georgia Public Broadcasting:
Record-setting midterms early voting even exceeding presidential early voting
“It does not mean voter suppression doesn’t exist,” Abrams told supporters Tuesday during a rally in southeastern Atlanta. “But we’re stronger, better, and faster than it.
In GA, the goal is ~30-30. That is, 30% Black turnout, 30% of the white vote. So, the numbers are good for Democrats (including % of Black voters at 32.7 and % of women voters at 54.1) in that enthusiasm is there and the local strategies are working. That, in itself, is no guarantee of a win, especially when blue and red waves crash against each other (the over 65 voter is the dominant demographic) and when so much more of the vote needs to come in on election day.
We also don’t know how they voted. We’ll just have to wait and see.
And in other news…
There’s a ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the U.S. in the U.K. economic fiasco
International markets punished Liz Truss over her unfunded tax cut package, creating a financial crisis that ultimately forced her resignation as prime minister.
Which raises a question for Americans: Is it possible for Republicans or Democrats to pursue an agenda that’s so poorly received that it would spark a similar meltdown?
Yes, there is: Breaching the debt ceiling.
"The U.K. is the canary in the coal mine,” former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm said. “The United States is getting a heads up from the UK that policymakers who make unforced errors are being punished by markets.”
Boris won’t save the Tory party
He will almost certainly hand the next election to Labour
Today’s new low comes amid the resignation of Truss, the complete failure of her project and a governing party that has gone from being one of the most successful parties in the Western world to where it is today – on life support. Here’s what I think happens next.
Liz Truss has gone. Trussonomics is dead. Nobody who is associated with libertarian politics, whether rightly or wrongly, will be let anywhere near power for a generation or more. The ‘liberal leaver’ vision of Brexit as 'Davos-on-Thames' – a project that was chiefly about low taxes, deregulation, putting London and the City on steroids and continuing with high rates of immigration – is over. Done. Poof.
Remember, The Spectator is a conservative publication. Just click through to see the story headlines and you’ll get a flavour of how they are dealing with this mess.
Susan J Demas/Michigan Advance:
Adults who choose to bully LGBTQ+ children are weird — and profoundly broken
Growing up gay or trans is often devastatingly hard, from enduring slurs hurled by kids at school to having abusive parents who kick you out of the house just because of who you are or who you love.
That’s why more than 70,000 LGBTQ+ people and allies have shared videos to try and help kids feel like they’re a little less alone. We belong to a vibrant community of millions around the world and are here to offer encouragement, love, support, positivity and joy.
Let’s not sleep on that last part. If you’ve ever been to a Pride rally, there is so much unfettered joy — the joy that comes with being comfortable with who you are and celebrating with others who get you. There’s singing, there’s laughter and there are a lot of hugs. The ubiquitous rainbow flags, hearts, socks and more on display evoke joy, beauty and fun, just like drag shows.
“Don’t let them steal your joy,” is advice you hear a lot. But let’s be real: That’s exactly what far-right bigots are trying to do. None of them seem like they’re real fun at parties, at least from their humorless, hateful online screeds.
Sorry, swing voters. This election won’t give you what you want.
But here’s the reality: Most of the issues driving voters to the polls seem to be ones over which the parties have little control. And whichever party wins, voters — especially swing voters — are unlikely to see real progress on the matters that animated their votes.
This disconnect goes a long way toward explaining why voters are cynical about what politics can accomplish. They can swing the pendulum away from the current arrangement of power, but that won’t alter the broad, difficult problems that got them worked up in the first place.
Liz Truss’s fall is a warning to populists everywhere
Truss’s announced departure after just 45 days apparently marks the shortest residence ever at 10 Downing Street. She made so many mistakes in so little time that it’s hard to list them all. But the most needlessly self-destructive was trying to impose simplistic right-wing economic policies that work only in theory, never in practice.
To a nation suffering through 10.1 percent inflation, alarmed by the war in Ukraine, worried about energy shortages this winter and struggling with myriad disruptions caused by Brexit, Truss offered massive tax cuts for the wealthiest individuals and the biggest corporations. Her brief tenure should be remembered as the hyphenate premiership: all-in on supply-side, laissez-faire, trickle-down economics.
The only way to pay for this huge giveaway was through equally massive borrowing. She and her first chancellor of the exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, gambled their futures — and the well-being of the country — on their blind faith in the wisdom of free markets.
Has the Democrats’ hoped-for ‘Dobbs effect’ tapered off?
Republicans are catching up in critical races across the country – and the Democrats’ top issue isn’t cutting through as they expected
But the real effect may simply be more subtle than anticipated. Inside Washington spoke with Democratic pollster Zac McCrary at Impact Research, who noted that the Dobbs effect is still very much in play – and that it’s important to remember that before the decision came down, Democrats were expecting to face a full-blown bloodbath.
“And I think it’s not only Dobbs, but I think Dobbs did a lot to help build back the Democratic support, build back a foundation of support among Democrats that put Democrats in a much more competitive place than they were previous to that, or really than Democrats should be by most of the fundamentals,” he said.