Here. Before we do anything else, here’s the invasion of Ukraine in a nutshell. This war is a tiny girl, hiding under a desk, and explaining, “I saw a robot today. It was flying. I saw it. It wanted to kill me.”
On Saturday, the messages that Russia is departing from Kherson city, and from the whole portion of Kherson Oblast lying west of the Dnipro River, grew only louder. Official messages from the occupation government calling for “immediate” evacuation of all officials, as well as the civilian population, are circulating widely.
As they’ve been departing, Russian forces have been taking away all they can carry. That includes washing machines. It includes furniture and fixtures stolen from homes and apartments. It includes the contents of stores and gear from television studios. It includes children even younger than the girl in the video above.
Back in July, as Ukraine both reached positions where Kherson was in the range of extended artillery and began to employ weapons like HIMARS that were capable of both greater range and precision, there were thoughts that rather than target Russian military assets that were inextricably mixed with civilian locations inside Kherson, Ukraine would go for the bridges. Just days later, Ukraine did exactly that, striking both the Antonivskyi Bridge east of Kherson, then the Kakhovka dam bridge west of Nova Kakhovka. From that point on, Russia’s ability to stay in Kherson was in serious doubt.
Almost immediately, as Russia began trying to support its forces in the west with ferries and makeshift bridges constructed by stringing together barges, there were rumors that Russia’s departure from the area was imminent. If Russian forces along the front line were expending ammunition and equipment faster than it could be resupplied, then Ukraine didn’t have to actually stage an assault on Kherson. It only had to wait.
Some other plans were apparently discussed, such as trying to hold onto a smaller area around the city of Kherson. However, the damage to the Kerch Bridge in Crimea at the start of this month, and the Ukrainian push down from the north that liberated over 1,000 square kilometers in three days, finally seemed to place enough stress on this already tightened supply that Russia was left with no other choice than departure.
In the last weeks, there have been multiple signs of Russia’s leaving Kherson. Some of those have been as predictable as increased theft of washing machines. Some have been much darker.
The possibility of a humanitarian disaster in Kherson—one that doesn’t involve a tactical nuke or an exploding dam—is still hanging out there. Russian soldiers who have watched thousands of their own companions die in an attempt to hold onto Kherson, are now being told to pack up and leave. Collaborators, Russians lured into Kherson with the promise of jobs in the occupation government, and military officials who were running day to day operations are all leaving. In fact, they are reportedly leaving today.
As the Associated Press reports,
Russian-installed authorities ordered all residents of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson to leave “immediately” Saturday ahead of an expected advance by Ukrainian troops waging a counteroffensive to recapture one of the first urban areas Russia took after invading the country.
Those authorities have apparently already hopped onto ferries and beat it out of Kherson. Ukrainian forces are still kilometers away from the city. There have been no reports of Ukrainian forces making a major advance toward the city, though there have been reports that Russian forces have been reduced, and Russian artillery fire has all but stopped, along the front lines in Kherson.
Right now, there are still thousands of Russian troops on the west side of the Dnipro River. The city of Kherson appears to be without any civilian leadership. It’s unclear to what extent there is any military leadership remaining. It’s just the citizens, and thousands of Russian soldiers who have been defeated in months of bloody fighting. That’s not a good formula.
There is no doubt that Russia would like to make an “orderly retreat” in which it takes with it as much military equipment (and washing machines) as possible. There’s also no doubt that Ukraine would like to prevent this. Tanks and artillery that don’t make it across the river, are tanks and artillery they don’t have to fight another day. On the other hand, Ukrainian military commanders are likely to be reluctant to risk their forces in attacking positions that are about to be abandoned. However, if there are signs of Russian soldiers taking their anger out on the civilian population as they depart, Ukraine is certain to plunge in.
Kherson stands on the brink of liberation. But it may not get there without passing through yet another bath of chaos. It’s a good time for everyone to hunker under a desk.
From the WTF breaking news desk, there have also been reports that Russia has also ordered the evacuation of Belgorod. However, this doesn’t seem to be actually the case. Apparently small numbers of people were evacuated from some towns and villages along the Ukrainian border, this was spread into the media, and now there are many reports that the whole of Belgorod Oblast, including the city of Belgorod, is being evacuated. These reports have become so widely repeated that there are traffic jams of people streaming out of towns in the region.
Russia seems to be getting extremely fearful. Almost like they think they’re going to be held responsible for what they’ve done in Ukraine. And Syria. And Georgia. And Chechnya. And...
UPDATE: Saturday, Oct 22, 2022 · 4:29:58 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
More reports coming in that Russia has abandoned positions in northern Kherson area. On the east side of the line, Ukrainian forces are reportedly at the northern edge of Mylove, without reports that this involved fighting. On the western end of the line, reports that a number of towns and villages around Chaklove are sitting empty of Russian troops.
Reports that Russia is leaving positions in northern Kherson
None of this is visually confirmed at this point, so I’m not updating the maps beyond moving the area of Ukrainian control closer to what has been Russia’s defensive line. But things may be changing fast.
UPDATE: Saturday, Oct 22, 2022 · 3:58:55 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
With all the emphasis on Kherson, there hasn’t been a lot of coverage in what’s happening up along the edge of Luhansk Oblast where Ukrainian forces had been working their way to Svatove. But that’s not because nothing is happening.
Russian forces have made multiple attacks toward the villages of Terny, Zarichne, and Torske in Donetsk Oblast near Lyman. Russia understands that if it can get one Russian flag into Lyman, even for a minute, it will represent a PR victory by “countering the counteroffensive.”
Russia claimed to have retaken this area and be moving “on to Lyman” last week. They were lying. There was another big push on Wednesday, followed by an attack on Friday. Ukraine still appears to hold all these locations. However, pulling forces down to defend this position has apparently succeeded in slowing Ukraine’s careful advance toward Svatove.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces that crossed the river at Kupyansk seem to be divided between continuing the advance to the southeast, and finally moving against some of the Russian locations very close to Kupyansk on the north.
Svatove Area
There are a couple of areas that keep popping up in reports that aren’t actually in a town, but seem to be determining what comes next at Svatove. One is a patch of woods along the P07 highway between Volodymyrivka and Kryvoshyivka. The road in the area is screened by trees and this, along with the woods, is reportedly providing enough cover for Russian forces to strike vehicles attempting to move along the road toward Kuzemivka to the south. This is slowing Ukraine’s development of this area and any attempt to move east from that location.
To the south, Ukraine is reportedly pushing over a ridge near Kovalivka what would allow them to hold a similar commanding position over the P07 highway south of the Svatove intersection. This could potentially help in cutting off connections with those Russian forces that are causing trouble to the south.
There are enough pieces in motion, especially at the north and south ends of the line, that reports of locations changing hands should be expected in the next day or so. Stay tuned.
We now return you to fretting about events in Kherson.
UPDATE: Saturday, Oct 22, 2022 · 3:34:16 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
There are reports that Ukrainian forces are either in, or immediately outside, Mylove, which is on the eastern side of the line north of Kherson. Unclear if this means they are fighting with Russian forces there, or if Russia has moved back from this position. Looking for more info.
UPDATE: Saturday, Oct 22, 2022 · 3:10:16 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Remember yesterday’s post on Bakhmut when Russia had advanced to the furniture factory, but couldn’t capture the hardware store? Now Ukraine has pushed them out of the garbage dump and back to the asphalt factory.
Seriously, this is what it’s been like every day around Bakhmut. Russia making ridiculously costly assaults, and Ukraine staging ridiculously brave stands, over an area that’s smaller than the average U.S. shopping center.
