The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● KS-03: A Democratic group called Voter Protection Project is spending $260,000 on a digital ad and mail campaign designed to influence conservatives to support Libertarian Steve Hohe rather than Republican Amanda Adkins in their rematch against Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids. Axios reports that that group's website attacks Adkins with very Trumpy language by calling her a "typical DC swamp creature," while it lauds Hohe as someone who will "crack down on illegal immigration" and "eliminate the federal income tax."
Both Democrats and Republicans have a long history of trying to elevate third-party candidates and independents in order to siphon off members of the other side's base, but Team Blue may have an extra incentive to try out this strategy this cycle. As Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen told The Downballot last week, the firm's surveys have found that undecided voters are a "very Republican-leaning" bloc overall. Jensen noted that, while undecideds may not be happy with GOP candidates, they overwhelmingly dislike President Joe Biden.
"On the average poll that we do, we usually will find about 20% of undecided voters approve of the job Biden's doing, 60 or 70% of voters disapprove [of] the job that Biden's doing," Jensen explained, adding, "[T]here's a possibility that races right now where Democrats are up by two could turn into races that Republicans could win by two, and the polls weren't even wrong, but that's just the direction that people headed in because there's a Democratic president and they're unhappy."
Democrats, though, may be able to mitigate some of this problem if they can convince some conservatives who aren't sold on their GOP nominee to vote for a third-party candidate. Hohe himself snagged 3% last cycle as Davids was beating Adkins 54-44, a performance that attracted little notice in 2020 but could make all the difference now that Republican mapmakers have made this seat considerably redder.
Voter Protection Project, an affiliate of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus that has spent about $700,000 nationally, is also trying to direct right-wingers away from the GOP in a few other House races. Axios reports that the organization is getting involved in Michigan's 8th District with a similar campaign labeling Republican Paul Junge as a "former California banker who went to UC Berkeley" who "supports raising taxes." Rather than promote Democratic incumbent Dan Kildee, though, the organization's messaging pledges Libertarian David Canny will "stop wasteful spending."
The PAC is also trying a similar tactic in California's 22nd even though, because of the Golden State's top-two system, there are no candidates on the ballot other than Republican incumbent David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas. Instead, the messaging seems designed to convince angry Republicans to just skip the race altogether: Its site goes after Valadao, who voted to impeach Trump, as a "Traitor Who Turned His Back On President Trump To Serve His Own Interests" who "EVEN VOTED AGAINST PRESIDENT TRUMP'S BORDER WALL."
The Downballot
● The 2022 midterms are just around the corner, and you sent us a ton of fantastic questions for The Downballot mailbag episode we promised this week, so we brought on Daily Kos Elections contributing editor Steve Singiser to help us answer them. Among the many topics we cover: which states are likely to report results slowly—and how will those results change over time; the House districts that look like key bellwethers for how the night might go, and which might offer surprises; why and how Democrats make the hard decisions on which races to triage; the top legislative chambers to keep an eye on; and plenty more!
We're almost at 1,000 subscribers on Apple Podcasts, so we'd love it if you'd subscribe to The Downballot there. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time. New episodes every Thursday morning!
Senate
● Alaska: The Alaska Division of Elections tells FiveThirtyEight that it will run instant runoff tabulations on Nov. 23 after all ballots are in. The state will release the first batch of results of voters' first-choice preferences in races for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and state legislature on election night, with further updates to come Nov. 15 and and Nov. 18.
● GA-Sen: Attorney Gloria Allred held a press conference on Wednesday where her client, a woman identified with the pseudonym "Jane Doe," accused Republican Herschel Walker of urging her to get an abortion in 1993. The woman, who said she was in a longterm relationship with Walker, also declared that he drove her to a clinic after she decided to undergo the procedure.
The allegations come weeks after a different former Walker partner said he paid for her abortion in 2009. The candidate responded to this new story, "I'm done with this foolishness. I've already told you this is a lie, and I'm not going to entertain it."
● NJ-Sen: Semafor's Kadia Goba reported Wednesday that Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez is again under federal investigation, and a Menendez advisor confirmed her story hours after it first ran. Goba writes that unnamed sources "said that the broad outlines of the new inquiry are similar to the 2017 case," but "the new investigation involves an entirely different group of people."
Menendez was indicted in 2015 after prosecutors alleged that he'd used his office to benefit a friend of his, wealthy eye surgeon Salomon Melgen, in exchange for favors. However, federal authorities dropped the charges in 2017 after the jury failed to reach a verdict; Menendez was re-elected the next year, and he'll next be up in 2024. Melgen himself was convicted in 2017 of Medicare fraud, but Donald Trump granted him clemency shortly before leaving the White House.
● PA-Sen: Democrat John Fetterman quickly produced a commercial using footage from Tuesday night's debate where Republican Mehmet Oz declared he wants abortion to be decided by "women, doctors, [and] local political leaders." The spot goes on to tie Oz to governor nominee Doug Mastriano, who has performed badly in most polls, with the narrator arguing that Oz would allow Mastriano "to ban abortion without exceptions." Fetterman's camp says the spot will air on TV in "key markets."
● Polls:
AZ-Sen: Data for Progress (D): Mark Kelly (D-inc): 47, Blake Masters (R): 47, Marc Victor (L): 3 (Sept.: 48-47 Kelly)
AZ-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) for KSAZ-TV: Kelly (D-inc): 45, Masters (R): 43, Victor (L): 6 (Mid-Oct.: 46-42 Kelly)
FL-Sen: University of North Florida: Marco Rubio (R-inc): 54, Val Demings (D): 43 (Aug.: 48-44 Demings)
FL-Sen: Data for Progress (D): Rubio (R-inc): 51, Demings (D): 44
GA-Sen: Moore Information (R) for Herschel Walker: Herschel Walker (R): 46, Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 42, Chase Oliver (L): 3 (Mid-Oct.: 46-44 Walker)
GA-Sen: co /efficient (R): Walker (R): 47, Warnock (D-inc): 44, Oliver (L): 3
IA-Sen: Civiqs (D): Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 52, Mike Franken (D): 44
NC-Sen: Marist College: Cheri Beasley (D): 44, Ted Budd (R): 44
NH-Sen: Data for Progress (D): Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 50, Don Bolduc (R): 44, Jeremy Kauffman (L): 3 (Sept.: 50-43 Hassan)
NV-Sen: Data for Progress (D): Adam Laxalt (R): 49, Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 48, Neil Scott (L): 1 (Sept.: 47-46 Laxalt)
WI-Sen: Data for Progress (D): Ron Johnson (R-inc): 51, Mandela Barnes (D): 46 (Sept.: 50-48 Johnson)
Data For Progress: The Arizona poll was finished over a week ago on Oct. 17, while the New Hampshire and Nevada surveys were completed two days later. The Wisconsin and Florida polls were done Oct. 22 and 23, respectively.
DFP's September polls in Arizona and Nevada were only conducted in English even though both states have a large Spanish-speaking electorate, but these newer surveys were done in both languages; the firm's first Florida poll of the cycle was also conducted in English and Spanish.
GA-Sen: These two surveys give Walker some of his best numbers of the month, but he's still not taking the majority he'd need to avert a December runoff. Warnock himself is running a humorous commercial where he urges voters to turn out so he can win outright, arguing, "I could be interrupting your Thanksgiving!"
● Senate: We have several new reports of outside spending and reservations in Senate races. First up are the Democratic groups:
Republican Accountability Project: This organization says it's spending $1.7 million on a TV and radio campaign against Ohio Republican J.D. Vance.
EMILY's List: Politico reports that EMILY spent $2.4 million last week to aid Democratic Sen. Patty Murray in Washington.
VoteVets: This group has also spent $730,000 in Washington.
Next are the GOP activities:
Club for Growth: The far-right super PAC is deploying $2 million against Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona.
MAGA Inc.: AdImpact says that Donald Trump's main super PAC is dropping another $3.8 million in four Senate races. Arizona is getting the largest booking at $1 million, while another $800,000 is going to Pennsylvania; Nevada and Georgia are receiving $580,000 and $200,000, respectively.
The PAC's Pennsylvania spot appears to be the first GOP TV ad of the race to allude to Democrat John Fetterman's May stroke. The narrator declares, "Biden is stumbling around, and Fetterman just isn't right," which is followed by a clip of Fetterman saying, "The Eagles are so much better than the Eagles!" An unnamed MAGA Inc. official was even less subtle, telling Fox, "Call me an ableist. John Fetterman is not able to perform the job of senator."
Saving Arizona PAC: The super is dropping $3.7 million to help Arizona Republican Blake Masters; it's unclear at this point if any of this money comes from Masters' mentor, billionaire Peter Thiel.
Governors
● MI-Gov: Republican Tudor Dixon is finally going up with her first general election TV spot almost three months after winning the primary with what AdImpact reports is an $800,000 buy attacking Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Dixon uses her opening spot to label the incumbent "the most radical governor in America" and touts herself as an alternative.
AdImpact also relays that Donald Trump's MAGA Inc. is set to spend at least $550,000 on an ad campaign starting Thursday. Dixon could use the help, as the Wesleyan Media Project says that Whitmer and her allies aired 90% of the commercials that ran from Oct. 3-16.
● MN-Gov: The RGA has booked $750,000 in TV time through its new Heal Minnesota affiliate in its first ad campaign against Democratic Gov. Tim Walz. That's a modest amount for this point in the race, though Republican Scott Jensen will take any help he can get: The Wesleyan Media Project relays that Democrats ran an enormous 92% of all the commercials that aired Oct. 3 through the 16th.
● Polls:
AZ-Gov: Data for Progress (D): Kari Lake (R): 50, Katie Hobbs (D): 46 (Sept.: 51-47 Lake)
AZ-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (R) for KSAZ-TV: Lake (R): 54, Hobbs (D): 43 (Mid-Oct.: 49-46 Lake)
FL-Gov: University of North Florida: Ron DeSantis (R-inc): 55, Charlie Crist (D): 41 (Aug.: 50-42 DeSantis)
FL-Gov: Data for Progress (D): DeSantis (R-inc): 54, Crist (D): 42
FL-Gov: Cherry Communications (R) for the Florida Chamber of Commerce: DeSantis (R-inc): 53, Crist (D): 42 (Aug.: 51-43 DeSantis)
IA-Gov: Civiqs (D): Kim Reynolds (R-inc): 54, Deidre DeJear (D): 42
IL-Gov: Civiqs (D): J.B. Pritzker (D-inc): 56, Darren Bailey (R): 39
MI-Gov: Cygnal (R): Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc): 51, Tudor Dixon (R): 45 (Mid-Oct.: 49-44 Whitmer)
NH-Gov: Data for Progress (D): Chris Sununu (R-inc): 53, Tom Sherman (D): 40 (Sept.: 52-39 Sununu)
NV-Gov: Data for Progress (D): Joe Lombardo (R): 48, Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 47, Ed Bridges (IAP): 2, Brandon Davis (L): 1 (Sept.: 45-45 tie)
NY-Gov: Civiqs (D): Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 54, Lee Zeldin (R): 43
PA-Gov: YouGov for CBS: Josh Shapiro (D): 54, Doug Mastriano (R): 45 (Sept.: 55-44 Shapiro)
WI-Gov: Data for Progress (D): Tim Michels (R): 49, Tony Evers (D-inc): 48, Joan Beglinger (I): 1 (Sept.: 48-47 Michels)
AZ-Gov: InsiderAdvantage gives Lake what is by far her best result in any released poll. Until this survey, Lake's margin never exceeded 4% in any survey.
MI-Gov: Cygnal has recently begun conducting tracking polls in both Michigan and Ohio. The new survey was in the field Oct. 21-25, while our trendlines in parenthesis come from that last survey completed before that period.
House
● NJ-05, NJ-11: The House Majority PAC and VoteVets are going up on TV in two new Democratic-held districts they haven't previously aired television ads in, but don't fret: It's not a sign that unexpectedly competitive seats have suddenly barged onto the battleground. Rather, as Politico reports, ultra-wealthy former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is "steering money" toward New Jersey's 5th and 11th Districts, both of which Democrats made considerably bluer during the redistricting process.
No new independent expenditure reports for either race had appeared on the FEC's website as of Wednesday evening, but, citing data from AdImpact, Politico says that HMP is spending $2.3 million to aid Rep. Josh Gottheimer in the 5th while VoteVets, a close HMP ally, is putting in $2 million on behalf of Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the 11th. HMP didn't mention the Gottheimer spot in either of its press releases touting all of its new ads this week, though we were able to obtain a copy, while VoteVets posted its ad publicly. Both attack their respective Republican targets, Frank Pallotta and Paul DeGroot, on the issue most frequently used by Democrats this year, abortion.
While the vast majority of HMP's spending every cycle is devoted to competitive Democratic districts, that's not always the case, particularly when a rich, motivated donor is involved. Earlier this year, the super PAC received a $6 million donation from cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, then spent $1 million to unsuccessfully support a little-known first-time candidate favored by Bankman-Fried's followers in the Democratic primary in Oregon's brand-new 6th District.
● NY-03: House Majority PAC is airing a commercial touting Democrat Robert Zimmerman, which makes it the first major outside group to go on TV in this 54-45 Biden constituency on Long Island. HMP, like its counterparts in both parties, usually runs negative spots, but this ad doesn't mention Republican George Santos.
● PA-12: Democrat Summer Lee is running a TV ad to make it clear that her Republican opponent, Plum Borough Councilman Mike Doyle, is not retiring Democratic incumbent Mike Doyle. "Election alert," opens the narrator. "Democrat Mike Doyle is not on the ballot. A different Republican Mike Doyle is." The ad continues by showing footage of the GOP nominee saying, "I am a very conservative Republican."
Biden would have carried this Pittsburgh seat 59-39, but the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote earlier this month that Democrats are fretting that the name confusion could cost Lee some crucial support. Rep. Doyle even took the unusual step of holding a press conference to once again inform voters he is indeed retiring, a move that came about a year after he first said that he wouldn't be seeking a 15th term. The congressman, though, does not appear in this Lee commercial.
The Republican nominee, for his part, has insisted he's always gone by Mike Doyle. He previously challenged Democratic state Rep. Joseph Markosek in 2010 and 2012 as "Mike Doyle" at the same time that the congressman was also on the ballot. In 2012, the Republican lost 54-46 as Obama was carrying his legislative seat 52-47, so the borough councilor didn't seem to have benefited much from any mix ups.
Doyle the Republican has also insisted that he's even had to tell his party's base that he's not "that Mike Doyle," but Lee's team isn't convinced he's at all upset with the situation. Lee's campaign manager instead argued, "He could identify as a Republican on his website or his literature. He could use his full name Michael Doyle. He could use a middle initial."
Voters in the 12th District's two counties, Allegheny and Westmoreland, will be presented with ballots that have the candidates' names just above their party. However, as this Lee ad shows, her team believes that some people who are unaware of the congressman's retirement won't notice or care that Mike Doyle is listed as a Republican.
P.S. If Plum Borough Councilman Mike Doyle pulls off an upset in two weeks, he'll be far from the first politician to be apparently mistaken for a much better known namesake. Back in 1952, when Rep. John Fitzgerald Kennedy was waging his successful campaign to represent Massachusetts in the Senate, a little known Gillette stockroom employee named John Francis Kennedy was taking second place in the Democratic primary for treasurer. This other JFK won the post two years later, though, and he held on in the 1956 primary against a field that included a John M. Kennedy.
Both JFKs were re-elected to their respective posts in 1958 even though, as Commonwealth Magazine wrote in a 2004 article, the treasurer barely campaigned in this or any other race. John Francis Kennedy, for his part, acknowledged that some people had "been fooled for years" by his name, but he insisted that "not more than 5 per cent" had mistaken him for the senator.
Their fates finally diverged in 1960 when one JFK was the Democratic nominee for president at the same time that his namesake was taking a distant fifth place in the primary for governor: The contest to succeed him as treasurer featured the return of John M. Kennedy as well as John B. Kennedy, but neither came close. John Francis Kennedy unsuccessfully sought to reclaim his post in 1962 and 1964, but by then no one could confuse him for the late President Kennedy.
● House: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund announced Wednesday that it was booking another $11 million in TV ads.
The group's most notable reservation may be the $1.8 million it plans to spend in the Phoenix media market for the first time, which CLF says could go to defending Republican Rep. David Schweikert in Arizona's 1st District or going after Democratic incumbent Tom O'Halleran in the 2nd; the super PAC did not mention the 4th District, where Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton is up for re-election. The booking comes shortly after Team Blue began airing ads against Schweikert and to protect O'Halleran, whose seat got much redder from redistricting.
CLF also says it's sending $800,000 to Oregon's 6th, a new seat where major GOP groups hadn't been airing ads until now. Democrats, though, have been spending heavily to help Andrea Salinas against Republican Mike Erickson. The rest of CLF's new reservations are in seats where it's already been active.
On the Democratic side, Politico reports that House Majority PAC has triaged Wisconsin's 3rd District by canceling its remaining $840,000 reservation, a move that comes days after HMP cut that same amount.
VoteVets, finally, has spent about $4.8 million across seven House races. The biggest expenditure is $2.2 million in New Jersey's 11th, though it may not be because it's especially worried about Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill. Politico reports that part of the $10 million that former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg gave to HMP is directed towards helping Sherrill, and VoteVets is working "in tandem with" HMP.
VoteVets is also spending $1.2 million to protect DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York's 17th, while another $970,000 has gone to help incumbent Pat Ryan in the neighboring 18th. Much smaller amounts are going to four more seats; VoteVets recently told Politico it was spending a total of $10 million during the final month of the campaign. See our NJ-05/ NJ-11 item above for more.
● Polls:
NC-13: SurveyUSA for the John Locke Foundation: Wiley Nickel (D): 44, Bo Hines (R): 43
RI-02: DCCC Analytics: Seth Magaziner (D): 48, Allan Fung (R): 48
NC-13: This sample showed Democratic Senate nominee Cheri Beasley ahead 44-39 in a seat Biden would have taken by a smaller 50-48 spread. SurveyUSA usually works on behalf of nonpartisan media organizations, but it occasionally releases numbers for conservative groups like the John Locke Foundation as well as progressive clients.
RI-02: This poll did not include Moderate Party nominee William Gilbert as an option. The survey shows Democratic Gov. Dan McKee ahead 51-44 in a constituency Biden would have won 56-42.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● MI-AG, MI-SoS: The Republican firm Cygnal is out with the latest downballot numbers from its Michigan tracking poll:
MI-AG: Dana Nessel (D-inc): 46, Matthew DePerno (R): 43 (Mid-Oct.: 45-43 Nessel)
MI-SoS: Jocelyn Benson (D-inc): 50, Kristina Karamo (R): 40 (Mid-Oct.: 48-40 Benson)
● MN-AG: While Democrats have vastly outspent the GOP in Minnesota's race for secretary of state, the attorney general contest is a much more even affair financially. MinnPost reports that Democratic Attorneys General Association has deployed a total of $1.7 million against Republican Jim Schultz, while Minnesota for Freedom, which is an affiliate of the Republican Attorneys General Association, has spent $1.5 million to unseat Democratic incumbent Keith Ellison.
Ballot Measures
● CA Ballot: The two most expensive campaigns in the nation are competing sports betting referendums in California, but at least one appears to be about to fail with a whimper rather than a bang.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday came out in opposition to Proposition 27, which would allow online sports betting, a move Politico described as “putting the final nail in a coffin that is already being lowered into the ground.” The governor did not say anything about the rival Prop. 26, which would legalize sports betting at Native American tribal casinos and racetracks.
A late September survey from UC Berkeley showed respondents rejecting Prop. 26, which is supported by several tribes, 42-31, while Prop. 27 was losing 53-27. A mid-October SurveyUSA poll, though, had Prop. 26 ahead 43-32, while Prop. 27 was failing 43-37. The CEO of DraftKings, which is Prop. 27’s main backer along with FanDuel, acknowledged around that time that the referendum was likely to go down, though he predicted it would do better in two years.
All of this comes after truly massive amounts of money have been spent. California election analyst Rob Pyers said Wednesday that a total of $462 million has been used to promote or beat each proposition, compared to the $423 million in independent expenditure that has been deployed in “63 targeted” House races.
● ND Ballot: This fall, North Dakota voters will have the chance to impose term limits on their governor and state legislators, though it would be a while before they’d actually prevent anyone from running for re-election.
Measure 1 would only allow governors to be elected twice and would restrict legislators to eight years of service in each chamber starting in 2023. However, this initiative explicitly says, “Service as a member of the legislature or election to the office of governor before the effective date of this measure would not count towards an individual’s eight-year or two-election limit.” Two-term Gov. Doug Burgum, a Republican who would be allowed to seek re-election in 2024 no matter what happens, backs Measure 1, while GOP legislative leaders oppose it.
U.S. Term Limits, which backed a failed campaign here back in 1996, is the effort’s main financial backer, and it released an RMG Research survey in September showing “yes” up by a giant 81-13. On the other side, a state legislator complained in mid-October that his forces had “no money.” A number of local organizations, including state farm and chamber of commerce groups, are in opposition, but none appear to have contributed any funds to the effort.
Ad Roundup
Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.
