For anyone who thinks Ukraine should negotiate with Russia, this is the cemetery of Bucha. October 3, 2022.
It would be possible to write a post today that was simply a list of villages and towns liberated by Ukrainian forces. And it would still be long. From Kherson to Kharkiv—and at nearly every stop in between—Russia’s army is in retreat, Ukrainian forces are advancing, and the speed of the change is incredible. Kos was right on when he stated back at the end of August that the Russian Army had culminated. But I don’t think he, or Volodymyr Zelenskyy, anticipated just how extensively, and how rapidly, that Russian army would collapse.
In parts of both Kherson and northern Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces don’t seem to be so much fighting their way past Russian defenses, as they are … strolling into town. And if there’s any shortage the Ukrainian army may be facing at the moment, it could be a shortage of Ukrainian flags.
The spacing and attitude of the guys in this platoon that they are not simply free from enemy fire, but astoundingly relaxed.
The advance that began over the weekend in Kherson was initially focused on the western bank of the Dnipro River, but has since become a general rout all across the northern area that was previously occupied by Russia. As kos pointed out yesterday, not everything has gone perfectly. A column of Ukrainian vehicles was destroyed outside Davydiv Brid, and an effort to occupy that town was apparently forced to retreat across the river under withering fire.
But on Tuesday, the advance from the north has been so rapid, that it’s unclear if Davydiv Brid is still being seriously contested.
Ukraine has advanced over 20km
Ukraine has advanced over 20km on both the east and west of this area. So far that Davydiv Brid could soon be taken from the north, rather than the west. The bridgehead that Ukraine established across the Inhulets River, and fought so hard to maintain, is just a few kilometers away from being incorporated into this general southward advance.
How did Ukraine pull off such a sudden and apparently complete defeat of Russia in an area where Russia has packed in troops and armor? There seems to be one factor that played a major role: radios.
There have been astonished reports from the beginning of the invasion that, rather than encrypted high-band military radios, Russia was using consumer-grade equipment—essentially walkie-talkies of the sort you might find at a nearby sporting goods store. Additionally, Russian forces have often been communicating en clair, speaking openly of positions and objectives, rather than using any sort of code.
In Kherson, Ukraine seems to have taken advantage of this fact by issuing false orders and reports over these radio bands. Then they reportedly used jammers — readily available for these kinds of radios, but much more difficult for real military communications — to cut Russian forces off from one another. In all the various towns and villages in northern Kherson, Russian forces found themselves receiving a burst of orders, then they were speaking into static. Then a wall of Ukrainian armor came their way.
Isolated and confused, they began to pull back. Overall, Ukraine used Russia’s poor command and control structure, and it’s amazingly bad communications, to turn their northern defensive line into groups of frightened, confused, individuals scrambling to find a safe place. As of mid-day Tuesday in Ukraine, the advance seems to be continuing. In fact, there are reports that the towns at the center of the “in dispute” area above—Novovoskresenske, Chervone, and neighboring villages—have already been liberated.
Russia has a large number of forces west of the Dnipro, and Ukraine is bound to run into a serious defensive line eventually. There is still about 50km between currently known positions and that bridge at Nova Kakhovka. It’s very unlikely that Ukraine will just keep strolling. But already, Ukraine has liberated something close to 900 square kilometers in north Kherson.
Oh, and another convoy of Russian vehicles being loaded onto a barge near Nova Kakhovka reportedly discovered that it was HIMARS O’clock. Whether this barge was heading into, or out of, Kherson isn’t clear.
Meanwhile, in the north…
The “Tri-Oblast” region is about to just become “reclaiming Luhansk”
For the last three weeks, I’ve been jokingly referring to the area around Lyman as the “Greater Tri-Oblast Area,” the kind of place where you can imagine that the morning news comes with a farm report and there’s a rivalry among high school sports teams. But if you look at the map above, the days of the Tri-Oblast Area are definitely numbered.
That’s because there are no Russian-occupied locations remaining in northern Donetsk Oblast, and Ukrainian forces are within a few kilometers of clearing all of Kharkiv Oblast. Very soon now, the whole story in the north will be entirely taking place in Luhansk Oblast, as Ukraine moves toward Svatove and beyond.
There have been advances in many different areas, with movement toward Svatove from the north, west, and south. Over along the Oskil River, Ukrainian forces moved north of Borova, coming within 5km of closing the gap to the area liberated by the force moving south from Kupyansk, and it’s not clear that there is any actual Russian presence remaining in that 5km.
The most significant single location liberated on Monday was probably Makiivka. This location is not only along the road that formerly supplied the Russian forces that were camped for so long in Lyman, it was one of four locations that were reportedly being reinforced and fortified with defensive positions to act as a brake on Ukrainian movement toward Svatove. That … didn’t work.
Now that Makiivka has been liberated, I’ve removed the special markers I had put around these four locations, because it seems that this new defensive line may be as illusory as the previous one that supposedly ran through Borova.
The blue circle north of Kreminna represents an area where Ukrainian forces apparently reached the P66 highway and have blocked traffic along that route, but haven’t yet reported taking a town along this route. Expect that to change very soon, as it looks like Ukrainian forces are pressing both north and east from Makiivka.
There are so many localities being liberated in this area alone, that I’m absolutely certain the map is woefully out of date. What’s clear at this moment is that the Russian forces reportedly packing up gear in Svatove better hurry. Because they’re about to be hit from all sides at once.
I didn’t yet make a map, but there are also advances in the south, and Ukrainian forces are hinting that there’s about to be big movement. So don’t be surprised if this counteroffensive, which is already turning to a contest in just how quickly Ukraine moves forward and raises flags, becomes a more general rout.
At this rate, Ukrainians are going to be wishing Putin had made his declaration months ago.
Meters vs Towns
Back in Russia, one commentator has noticed something we’ve been talking about for weeks.
A Russian attack on the Donbas ends in spectacular disaster
This is a message that seems as if it could have been written at any time in the last three months.
It translates as “Our troops repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Viymka, Mayorsk, Spirne, Ozeryanivka, Bakhmutske, Kamianka and Ternovy Pody.” Many of these towns have been attacked multiple times a day, every day, and still, the Ukrainian positions hold.
But in the south, near Yehorivka, one Russian attack was more than “repelled.” It was obliterated.
A liberation parade
This is far from all. Expect updates.
Tuesday, Oct 4, 2022 · 3:45:13 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
I’m already going with an updated map. It’s not just the merger with the Inhulets bridgehead and the liberation of Davydiv Brid, but the continued roll through the villages at the center of this area.
One word of caution: Exciting as this is, Russia does seem to be pulling back, rather than getting obliterated or surrendering in place. So the density of Russian troops and equipment can be expected to increase as they’re compressed into a smaller area.
Russia supposedly trying to hold at the three villages highlighted.
The three towns highlighted here are supposedly locations where Russian forces have gathered and are trying to create a defensive line. The locations make some sense, as each is on a highway intersection and together they guard the northern approach to Berislav / Nova Kakhovka. Are these locations really more secure, or will they evaporate as easily as the supposed defensive line in Kharkiv. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, Oct 4, 2022 · 4:43:33 PM +00:00 · kos
Let’s take a moment to recognize the brave Territorial Defense Forces who suffered for months in trenches under unceasing Russian artillery bombardment, in order to buy time for Ukraine to equip and train these armored spearheads currently wreaking havoc on Russian lines. Without their sacrifice—paid for in blood, sweat, tears, and future lifetimes of PTSD, depression, and suicides—none of this would’ve been possible. These fresh units would’ve had to be thrown into those trenches, still fighting to hold lines, rather than pushing them back.
Tuesday, Oct 4, 2022 · 4:46:28 PM +00:00 · kos
Looks like another Russian oligarch is about to be thrown out of a window:
Russia is literally imploding before our eyes. The more Ukraine is able to maintain pressure and notch gains, the more chaos we’ll see in Russia itself.
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