UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 2:20:37 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
There is a letter circulating from an independent Russian media site claiming that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnipro and are decimating Russian forces around Nova Kakhovka. This is unbelievable. As in, I don’t believe it.
But it’s illustrative of just where the Russian mindstate is this evening. They’re ready to run with the most dire rumors.
UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 2:07:04 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
For the last two days, pro-Russian sites have been insisting that there was a “deal” in place, one that said Ukraine wouldn’t press Russian forces and would allow them to escape across the river to Dnipro in exchange for their agreeing to leave. The idea of this deal never made any sense, but it was very reassuring for Russian sources, both because it meant they would get their troops and equipment across the river, and because it suggested that they were only surrendering Kherson as part of an agreement, rather than being “actually defeated.”
The problem with spreading around a theory like that, is that the wrong people might believe it. Like the guys who needed to be driving full speed for the river in hopes of making some escape.
“There is panic there now. The equipment is abandoned. According to optimistic estimates, the Ukrainian military will capture about 5,000 of our military. According to the pessimistic, the whole group of 20,000 may be captured. This is the end.”
UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 12:32:45 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The posts on Russian Telegram channels tonight are almost as incredible as the military situation. One is calling on Ukrainian forces to march on Moscow, destroy the Kremlin, and get it over with. Others are saying that when the images of Russian losses in Kherson become public, it may be enough to end Vladimir Putin.
There seems to be a broad understanding that this isn’t just a repositioning, or even a defeat. It’s a humiliation.
UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 12:04:43 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russian air defenses have reportedly been withdrawn from the Kherson area. Both Ukrainian planes and drone are reportedly free to work the area, with drones using IR to spot for artillery. Both air strikes and precision guided weapons hitting at both massed forces and vehicles attempting to break away.
This is a very, very bad night for Russia.
Throughout the day, videos and images have shown that Ukrainian forces have been sweeping through Kherson oblast with very little in the way of opposition. However, it’s become clear that many of the videos being released are at least 24 hours old. Ukraine has been moving toward Kherson for the last two days.
And now it’s there. Sources on both sides have confirmed that Ukrainian forces have full control of Bilozerka west of Kherson, as well as Chornobaivka on the immediate northern edge of the town. Both of these places have been, in the recent past, areas with high concentrations of Russian forces and equipment.
It’s now clear that Russia no longer really controls any area west of the Dnipro River. Whatever plans they had for a fallback defensive line appear to have fallen apart. It’s well after dark in Kherson right now, and Ukrainian forces appear to be still advancing under a nearly full moon.
The blue locations are those where multiple sources report they have been liberated by Ukraine. Those still yellow are simply locations for which I don’t have any news, or where they’ve only appeared in unofficial lists. The actual location of Ukrainian forces should be expected to be much different from the area in blue here. That’s especially true in the north, where fighting is reported very near Beryslav.
There are reports that Ukraine is chiefly acting to keep anyone from escaping across the river. They want to bag these guys where they are, so they never have to fight them again, and so that Russia is delivered a crushing blow to morale.
Ukrainian forces have been collecting Russian equipment and Russian stragglers along the roads as they moved rapidly toward Kherson and Beryslav. They’ve also engaged with small Russian forces, eliminating them in passing.
However, reports from Russian sources put the remaining Russian force on the west bank of the river at an astounding 20,000. If other reports are accurate, those forces are now mostly concentrated in the area of Beryslav, and near the harbor in the city of Kherson. Fighting is going on in both places. And that fighting is not trivial.
So far, Thursday has been like a celebration in Kherson. Ukrainian forces have advanced capturing an untold bounty of abandoned equipment and being greeted in village, town, and city. Now it is just after midnight there on Friday morning. When the next sunrise comes up, Ukraine could hold all of Kherson, and perhaps all of the oblast west of the river.
If the number of Russians still on the west side is accurate, Ukraine may also be about to take a terrific victory, or be on the receiving end of one of the largest surrenders in history. Some Russian forces are reportedly attempting to flee the city under cover of darkness in small boats, or on anything that will float, hoping to be carried to safety downriver. However, Russian troops deliberately smashed many small boats along the waterfront days ago, probably to prevent anyone from getting this idea too early.
What’s happening in Kherson is going to be a story for the ages, no matter what comes next.
Multiple reports of Russian forces moving through Nova Kakhovka to somewhere east. Possibly the Melitopol area.
Reports that a lot of that Ukrainian artillery firing in Kherson is doing so to make it clear that attempting to cross the river is a very bad idea.
Ukraine has announced 41 liberated settlements in the Kherson area. The map above is mostly aligned with those announcements, though there are a few spots (mostly small villages) that I haven’t yet updated.
Holy crap, what an amazing night! Where do we even begin this week's episode of The Downballot? Well, we know exactly where: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday's extraordinary results, starting with a clear-eyed examination of the issue that animated Democrats as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. They also discuss candidate quality (still really important!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and "soft" Biden disapprovers (lots of them voted for Democrats).