The cascade of Democratic angst came quickly after then-Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, persevered through a debate that plainly illustrated he was still in the midst of recovering from the stroke he suffered earlier in the year.
Democratic operatives told reporters they were "on edge" about Fetterman's "rocky" performance, even "second-guessing" the wisdom of the campaign allowing him to debate at all.
They all turned out to be wrong after Fetterman triumphed Tuesday over his GOP rival Mehmet Oz. But one person who nailed the ultimate impact of the debate on the night it took place was The Bulwark publisher Sarah Longwell, who acknowledged in a tweet that "objectively" Oz was outperforming a “struggling” Fetterman.
"But there is nothing likeable about Oz," she added. "He’s smirking, fast-talking, and I’m not sure he’s doing anything to reduce his unfavorables."
In other words, as I wrote the next day, the real question following the debate remained: Could Oz overcome his ick factor?
No, was the final answer to that question, with Fetterman securing a solid 4-point win over Oz, 51% - 47%, on Election Day.
Civiqs tracking of the two candidates' favorable ratings among registered voters also proved Longwell correct. As the screenshot below reveals, Oz's unfavorables had been steadily declining among voters from an abysmal 63% in May to a still-high 55% by late October. But notably, that steady descent essentially froze in place on Oct. 25, the day after the debate, and then flat-lined at 55% for the remainder of the race. Oz's favorables followed suit, freezing at 33% following the debate after a lengthy period of slow-but-steady improvement. (Note: I’m using screenshots because the tracking link isn’t public.)
The shift in trajectory was also evident among both Republican and independent voters. Oz's steady gain in favorability with Republicans during the race froze at 69% after the debate.
And importantly, whatever gains Oz had been making in likability among independent voters ended after the debate, cementing in place a 26% - 58% favorable/unfavorable rating in Civiqs tracking. Thirty-plus points underwater among independents is no way to win a race.
Meanwhile, Fetterman's favorability rating effectively flat-lined after the debate at 48% even, a slight improvement from before the event when he was 2 points underwater at 47% — 49%.
After getting panned in the press, Fetterman maintained that he felt it was important to "show up" for the debate and let the voters decide.
“I just always understood that it wasn’t going to be easy," Fetterman told CNN's Don Lemon the week after the debate. "I am five months into recovery from that, but I thought it was important that I show up and I did it. And at the end of the day, we did, I think, make some important points."
In fact, the moment that may have landed the most impact in the debate was the one in which Oz infamously said he believed abortion decisions should be left up to women, doctors, and "local political leaders.”
The Fetterman campaign made that misstep a post-debate focal point and carried it straight into their closing argument.
“Oz believes that that choice is [up] to local political officials. That choice belongs to women and their doctors,” Fetterman said Sunday at one of his final campaign stops in Harrisburg. Fetterman also repeatedly promised to cast the 51st vote to eliminate the filibuster in order to codify Roe v. Wade, among other things.
Pennsylvania exit polls showed that far from "fading," abortion proved to be the No. 1 issue for Keystone State voters, with a 36% plurality saying it mattered most to them (inflation at 29% and crime at 11% rounded out the top 3).
Among those voters prioritizing abortion, 78% of them voted for Fetterman.
TUESDAY 11/15 DEADLINE: Order get-out-the-vote postcards to write to Georgia voters for the December 6 runoff.
