I’m not sure if Sahil Kapur was among the prognosticators of “The Red Wave Is Coming!”, but he has been among the ones who is saying Trump is burnt toast with Republicans. And now it looks like Kapur has some data to show Moscow Mitch and other Republican “leaders” about how Trump was a destructive interference to the impending Red Wave that wasn’t. Whether you trust it or not, Kapur has some exit polling that will be the equivalent of liquid nitrogen poured down Republican pants.
WASHINGTON — How did Democrats stop a red wave in 2022?
The short answer: Donald Trump appears to have helped them.
In a major departure from past trends, the 2022 midterm election turned out to be nearly as much of a referendum on the defeated former president as it was on incumbent President Joe Biden, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research for NBC News and other networks.
Once again, these are exit polls, so take them with some grains of salt. However, considering Republicans didn’t win the Senate and may/may not have the House, the exit polling data may track with the midterm outcome. And if you believe Republicans, they ain’t happy about the results so far.
Nationally, 32% of voters in 2022 said their vote was “to oppose Joe Biden.” But 28% said their vote was “to oppose Donald Trump,” even though Trump was out of office. That suggests Trump’s continued dominance over the GOP made the 2022 election, in the minds of voters, almost as much about a defeated former president as it was about the current president and party in power…
Independent voters made up 31% of the electorate and they favored Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 49% to 47%, a stark break from the past four midterms in which they voted by double digits for the party out of power, according to exit polls.
And they have data from at least two battle ground states: AZ and PA. While there were was a segment of the voters who supported the Republican Senate candidate because they oppose Biden, an almost equal measure of voters supported the Democratic Candidate because they OPPOSE TRUMP! Think about it. This is the first time in a midterm election that voters were still driven to vote against a defeated president.
This. Is. Not. Normal.
And it is because unlike other losers, Trump will not fuckin’ go away! And at least one Republican strategist admits that Trump is responsible for the Red Ripple.
“The former president cast a very long shadow over this election,” said Ken Spain, a former Republican campaign strategist. “From the candidates he endorsed to his refusal to take himself off the national stage in the run-up to the election, Trump was omnipresent.”
But is any Republican going to have the balls to take on Donald Trump? The only two I can think of were Cheney and Kinzinger. And both of them will not be in the next Congress.
Keep up the good work Trump!