Both of Louisiana’s Republican senators, John Kennedy and Bill Cassidy, are showing new interest in joining October’s all-party primary to succeed termed-out Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards.
Kennedy, who was re-elected with 62% of the vote last week, not only confirmed on Monday that he was giving a new campaign “serious consideration” and would be “announcing my decision soon,” he also released an internal from Torchlight Strategies showing him well ahead of all his potential rivals. The results of the four-day survey, which began one day after Kennedy’s easy victory, are below:
Sen. John Kennedy (R): 22
State Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson (D): 18
Attorney General Jeff Landry (R): 13
Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R): 7
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R): 6
Rep. Garret Graves (R): 5
Attorney Hunter Lundy (I): 2
Treasurer John Schroder (R): 1
State Sen. Sharon Hewitt (R): 0
Landry and Lundy are the only two contenders who have launched campaigns so far.
In the very likely event that no one takes a majority of vote in the first round in October, the top-two contenders would advance to a runoff regardless of party. Torchlight showed Kennedy besting Wilson 56-32 in a one-on-one, but his release did not include matchups against anyone else.
Kennedy’s pre-general election report showed him with $13.6 million in his Senate account in mid-October, and The Advocate’s Tyler Bridges writes that “he could shift to an outside super PAC for the governor’s race.” Bridges also says that, should Kennedy be elected governor, he’d be charged with appointing a new senator rather than Edwards.
Cassidy, for his part, recently said he’d reveal more about his plans this week. Cassidy infuriated MAGA world last year when he voted to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 attack, while Kennedy has remained an ardent Trump loyalist.
Just before Kennedy released this survey, Bridges wrote that he “is so formidable that political analysts believe” that Graves, Nungesser, Schroder, and Hewitt were among the Republicans waiting to see what he’d do before making up their own minds about a campaign.
Nungesser, who has looked like an all-but-certain candidate for years, said he’d be doing a poll in December to assess his chances and would announce his plans in early January. On Monday, the lieutenant governor responded to Kennedy’s public flirtations by saying, “I guess we will wait and see what he does.”
Schroder, though, told Bridges, “Who else runs is not really a factor in my decision to run,” and he even set Jan. 12 as the date he’d make his intentions known. Hewitt, for her part, said she’d say what she’s doing “in the coming weeks and months.” Another Republican, state Rep. Richard Nelson, also reiterated his interest, though he didn’t lay out a timeline. “The demographic I would appeal to is in the middle, not a partisan crowd,” said Nelson.
Landry, for his part, earned the backing of the state GOP's executive committee earlier this month in a vote that infuriated would-be opponents and even some State Central Committee members, and the state GOP on Monday made its endorsement official. Chairman Louis Gurvich showed zero interest to try and soothe hurt feelings, though, saying, “Many of the reports of this endorsement were fake news that were based on leaks and bad information … Others who are crying over this endorsement are just upset because they didn’t have the support within our party to win the endorsement for themselves.”
No notable Democrats have entered the race yet to succeed Edwards in what will be a challenging race in this red state, though a few are showing some interest. Wilson, who was the one Democrat tested in Kennedy’s poll, said that Wes Moore’s victory in Maryland’s governor election gave him optimism that another Black candidate like himself could win in Louisiana.
East Baton Rouge Parish District Attorney Hillar Moore also publicly expressed interest over the weekend for the first time, while New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno did not address the topic when Bridges asked if she was thinking about making the race. Navy veteran Luke Mixon, who took third in Tuesday’s Senate race with 13%, also did not rule out the prospect. But the man who took second place last week, Gary Chambers, made it clear he wasn’t interested.
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