With the newly projected victory of Republican Mike Garcia in California’s 27th Congressional District, the U.S. House will flip to Republican control in the new session beginning on Jan. 3, 2023. The margin of the Republican win, however, will be so small that on any given day Democrats could have the majority of members present. Which is going to make the job of the inept and spineless Speaker Kevin McCarthy—if he actually manages to round up the votes to get it—even more difficult.
That bit about him rounding up the votes to win? He’s trying to nail that down right now, but the official vote isn’t until January when the new Congress convenes. For right now, he’s being pummeled by the Freedom Caucus maniacs who have no intention of making his leadership easy. Whether they’ll succeed in actually toppling him isn’t yet certain. A lot can happen between now and January.
Depending on what happens in the next several weeks—including how much Democrats can do to bomb-proof government before the GOP majority takes over—we’ll have a better sense of who is actually going to be in control. But if McCarthy comes out the other side on top, you can bet that the maniacs are going to have him on an extremely short leash.
He will also be constrained by the reality that on any given day, there will be enough absences that he would have to try to get Democratic votes to get anything done. Given past performance, the likeliest outcome is two years of the House getting almost nothing done.
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We're now in the second week of election overtime and there are still plenty of major races yet to be decided—as well as tons more great news for Democrats to exult over on this week's episode of The Downballot. On the uncalled races front, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a pair of House races in California and several legislatures that could flip from red to blue, including the Pennsylvania House. Speaking of legislatures, the Davids also go deep on what the astonishing flips in Michigan will mean for progressives and particularly organized labor.