The first big special election of the new election cycle is coming up fast, as Virginia officials just set Jan. 10 as the date for the race to replace Republican state Sen. Jen Kiggans, who will soon enter Congress after unseating Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria 52-48 in the redrawn 2nd District. The battle will have major implications for Democrats, who hold the Senate by a narrow 21-19 margin but could pad their majority with a win.
Three candidates have already announced plans to run. Virginia Beach Councilman Aaron Rouse, a former Virginia Tech football star who briefly played in the NFL, kicked off a bid on Monday with an endorsement from Luria. Rouse won an at-large seat on the city council in 2018, so he already represents about two-fifths of the district he’s now running for. (He also briefly challenged Republican Mayor Bobby Dyer in 2020 but dropped out, citing the coronavirus pandemic.)
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Former state Rep. Cheryl Turpin, who lost to Kiggans by a narrow 50.4 to 49.5 margin in 2019, likewise has said she'll run, which would set up a matchup with Rouse. While plans haven't yet been announced, the two will likely face off in a so-called firehouse primary, a small-scale nominating contest run by the Democratic Party (rather than the state). The lone Republican to enter so far is businessman Kevin Adams, a Navy veteran who doesn't appear to have run for office before.
Because the election is being held to complete the final year of Kiggans' term, it will take place in the old version of the 7th State Senate District in Virginia Beach, an area in the state's southeastern corner with a heavy Navy presence. Kiggans, a nurse practitioner and former Navy helicopter pilot, won her only term in the Senate in that 2019 race against Turpin for an open Republican seat. The tight result that year was very similar to the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, which saw Hillary Clinton narrowly edge out Donald Trump 46.8 to 46.5 in the district.
But while Joe Biden cruised in 2020, winning the 7th 54-44, Democratic performance dipped badly the following year, when Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe 52-48 in the governor's race. Democrats are naturally hoping to return to Biden's form, but this contest will very likely be another tossup.
The race to succeed Kiggans for a full term, however, should be a more one-sided affair. Redistricting not only gave the district a new number, the 22nd, but it made it considerably more Democratic, as Biden would have won 59-39. All three candidates in the special election had already announced they'd seek the 22nd when it first goes before voters in November of next year.