Heading into the final stretch of the 2022 cycle, Trump's favorable ratings had already taken a hit following revelations that sensitive national security materials had been found during an FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago residence.
Before the FBI search, Trump's favorables were 15 points underwater with registered voters, 40%-55%. Post-raid, Trump's favorable rating dropped several points to roughly -20 points, 37%-57%.
But after the “red wave” turned into a puddle of GOP tears, Trump bled even more support. He's now fully 25 points underwater, with a lowly 33% favorable rating while 58% of voters have an unfavorable view of him.
Simply put: Nobody likes a loser, and that's exactly what Trump is. In fact, even Republican voters are starting to feel singed. Going into Election Day, 81% of GOP voters still held a favorable view of Trump. But coming out of it, he lost lots of points among the GOP faithful, hitting a six-year low of 71%. Trump's favorables haven't been that low among Republican voters since the summer of 2016.
During the entirety of Trump's tenure, he hovered right around a 90% favorability rating with GOP voters, but he's finally begun to wear out his welcome.
Focus groups have made clear that the problem isn't Trumpism—Republican voters still like Trump's brash style and own-the-libs vibe. But they want a winner and Trump's a verifiable three-time loser now.
That's why Trump had to seize the moment while one still existed and announce his intentions before the bottom entirely falls out for him.
Now GOP leaders and the party's voters are stuck with the candidacy of someone they no longer want but aren't sure how to defeat. Welcome, Republicans, to your 2024 nightmare.
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We're now in the second week of election overtime and there are still plenty of major races yet to be decided—as well as tons more great news for Democrats to exult over on this week's episode of The Downballot. On the uncalled races front, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a pair of House races in California and several legislatures that could flip from red to blue, including the Pennsylvania House. Speaking of legislatures, the Davids also go deep on what the astonishing flips in Michigan will mean for progressives and particularly organized labor.
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