If there’s a big election night, there’s one thing you can always count on: Daily Kos Elections county-by-county benchmarks for competitive races! In this post, we have benchmarks for the top-tier Senate battles that will determine control of Congress’ upper chamber: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Perhaps not coincidentally—since these are, as always, the nation’s most competitive swing states, regardless of what’s on the ballot—most of those states are also hosting some of the nation’s most competitive gubernatorial contests. We’re also including a couple of states with big governor’s races but nothing on the Senate side, Kansas and Michigan.
What do benchmarks do? They’re a tool that can help you estimate, as early results start coming in, whether candidates are hitting the marks they need to win statewide. Without that advance framework for what to expect, you’re left at the mercy of pundits who might have an agenda, might simply have no clue what’s going on, or both.
These benchmarks solve two different problems you might experience while watching the returns in the early going. One common problem is that, in many states, the first counties to report tend to be the smaller, more rural counties, which (unsurprisingly) may also be some of those states’ most conservative-leaning counties. The benchmarks direct you to each state’s most populous counties, so you can head straight to looking at the ones that matter the most toward the overall total.
This is expressed in the “% of 2020 statewide vote” column, where the more votes come from a particular county, the bigger the number, putting that county higher up the list. We only show the counties that make up 2% or more of the statewide total, as a way of minimizing the clutter.
The other related problem is that as the first votes comes in, the statewide percentage may not be a representative sample of the whole state, because those smaller, rural counties may be overrepresented. We solve that by showing what percentage the Democratic candidates should be shooting for, in the most important counties. Rather than focusing on the statewide topline number, you can compare the county-by-county reports that you see online to see whether your preferred candidates are meeting, beating, or lagging minimum expectations.
This is shown in the “What Dems need to break 50%” column. We also show the 2020 presidential results in the rightmost column, to show how we extrapolate the 2020 numbers to figure out the necessary 2022 targets. In some states, no adjustment is necessary at all, because the 2020 election was paper-thin and is likely to be close again this year. In others, we need to make an adjustment to come up with a bare minimum (50%) that the Democratic candidate needs to win, which is applied proportionately across all the counties.
This isn’t an exact science. Political professionals use much more granular data to create the turnout models that they need to hit, often down to the precinct level. But news organizations and most government sites don’t report precinct-level data in real-time on an election night, so a deep dive at that level of detail isn’t going to be helpful for the casual viewer.
There’s one other important thing to consider when watching election results: Multi-day counts that go well past Election Day are becoming the norm. That’s largely because of the increased adoption of all-mail voting, as well as efforts to make absentee voting easier thanks to the pandemic.
But those aren’t the only reasons. Some Republican-controlled legislatures in key swing states have made it impossible for election officials to count mail-in votes ahead of Election Day—which, given increasing preferences for Republicans to vote in-person and Democrats to vote early or by mail, helps contribute to the illusion that Republican candidates are “leading” when people go to bed on election night, only for the balance shifts as the count continues. So keep in mind that these benchmarks are oriented toward the final result after all votes have been counted. In some states, therefore, the benchmarks may not be a good match for the partial count that’s available on election night.
One of the drawbacks of a simple method like this one is that swings don’t occur uniformly across an entire state. One election where we found this out the hard way was 2016, where Hillary Clinton, in many states, actually hit most of the large-county benchmarks. However, she came up short in the many rural counties that are too small for inclusion on these lists, essentially dying of a thousand small cuts.
Another potential problem here is that in urban counties, a candidate can hit the correct benchmarks in terms of percentage of vote share but fall off the pace in terms of turnout, as happened in Milwaukee and Detroit in 2016. The opposite is also possible: In the 2019 race for governor in Kentucky, Democrat Andy Beshear fell below his benchmarks but still won by running up huge raw vote totals in the cities. That’s why the benchmark for each county’s share of the state’s total votes is important data, though unfortunately, it’s hard to tell whether you’ve hit the right mark on turnout until all the votes have been counted.
One final thing to keep in mind is that not every state you might be interested in will be on this list, partly to keep this post a manageable length. A few potentially interesting races also have a complicating factor. For instance, New Hampshire (like the other New England states) reports its results at the town level, rather than by county, so county-level benchmarks may not be useful to you there. And Oregon, where there’s a competitive gubernatorial race, has a different problem, because there’s a three-way race. Even if independent candidate Betsy Johnson winds up only earning about 10% of the vote, a race with multiple hinges like that is enough to foul up this simple method, especially when it’s not clear which other candidate uncommitted Johnson voters might be likelier to defect to.
With that said, let’s turn to the numbers!
ARIZONA
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 49% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
49/49 |
49/49 |
MARICOPA |
61.1 |
50/48 |
50/48 |
PIMA |
15.4 |
58/40 |
58/40 |
PINAL |
5.5 |
40/58 |
40/58 |
YAVAPAI |
4.2 |
35/64 |
35/64 |
MOHAVE |
3.1 |
24/75 |
24/75 |
COCONINO |
2.2 |
61/37 |
61/37 |
YUMA |
2.1 |
46/52 |
46/52 |
Arizona—where there are both very tight Senate and gubernatorial races—was one of the closest states in the 2020 presidential election, and that makes our job easier here. In fact, no adjustment is necessary from the 49/49 result last time. One way in which Arizona stands out, though, is that the large majority of its population lives in only one county, Maricopa, which is where Phoenix and most of its suburbs are situated. Accordingly, the main thing Democrats Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs need to do to win in Arizona is to win in Maricopa County, though they also need to run up the score in Pima and Coconino Counties (Tucson and Flagstaff, respectively) while not getting demolished in the rest of the state.
FLORIDA
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 50% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
50/49 |
48/51 |
MIAMI-DADE |
10.4 |
55/44 |
53/46 |
BROWARD |
8.7 |
66/33 |
64/35 |
PALM BEACH |
7.0 |
58/41 |
56/43 |
HILLSBOROUGH |
6.4 |
55/44 |
53/46 |
ORANGE |
5.9 |
63/36 |
61/38 |
PINELLAS |
5.1 |
51/47 |
49/49 |
DUVAL |
4.5 |
53/45 |
51/47 |
LEE |
3.6 |
42/57 |
40/59 |
BREVARD |
3.3 |
43/55 |
41/57 |
POLK |
3.1 |
44/55 |
42/57 |
VOLUSIA |
2.8 |
44/54 |
42/56 |
PASCO |
2.7 |
41/57 |
39/59 |
SARASOTA |
2.4 |
46/53 |
44/55 |
SEMINOLE |
2.4 |
53/46 |
51/48
|
I don’t think there’s ever been a benchmark post that didn’t include perennial swing state Florida, and this year is no exception. While polling so far has given a distinct edge to Republican incumbents Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, an unexpectedly good night for Democrats might see these races close as well. Maybe the most interesting to watch in Florida will be what happens with the Latino population in Miami-Dade County, especially the Cuban American community. Joe Biden’s numbers took a big hit in the Miami area relative to how Hillary Clinton performed there, so these benchmarks are based on that more recent performance. If the Democratic candidates here can bounce back to how they did in the Miami area in the previous decade while maintaining a Biden-esque performance in the rest of the state, that would be the best path to an unexpected win.
GEORGIA
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 50% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
50/48 |
49/49 |
FULTON |
10.5 |
74/25 |
73/26 |
GWINNETT |
8.3 |
59/39 |
58/40 |
COBB |
7.9 |
57/41 |
56/42 |
DEKALB |
7.4 |
84/15 |
83/16 |
CHEROKEE |
2.9 |
31/68 |
30/69 |
CHATHAM |
2.7 |
60/39 |
59/40 |
FORSYTH |
2.6 |
34/65 |
33/66 |
HENRY |
2.5 |
61/38 |
60/39 |
CLAYTON |
2.2 |
86/13 |
85/14 |
Georgia is unique among the states in that it requires general election runoffs: If no candidate tops 50% in a given race, it’ll head to a second round on Dec. 6, with just the top two candidates invited back. And such an outcome is on the table in both the Senate and gubernatorial races, both of which feature a Libertarian candidate.
You’re probably now familiar with that previously arcane rule, since that’s how we ended up with both of Georgia’s current Democratic senators in January of 2021, Raphael Warnock (up for re-election this year, since his was a special election) and Jon Ossoff! As a result, we’ve bumped up the target to 50/48 even though the 2020 presidential results round off to 49/49, since Warnock will need to aim for 50+1 unless we want to do this whole thing again in December (Republicans shortened the runoff period). As always, he’ll need to dominate in the close-in parts of the Atlanta area to make up for wide losses in most of the state’s exurban and rural areas.
KANSAS
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 50% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
50/47 |
41/56 |
JOHNSON |
25.3 |
62/36 |
53/45 |
SEDGWICK |
16.3 |
52/46 |
43/55 |
SHAWNEE |
6.2 |
59/38 |
50/47 |
DOUGLAS |
4.3 |
78/20 |
69/29 |
WYANDOTTE |
4.1 |
74/24 |
65/33 |
LEAVENWORTH |
2.7 |
47/50 |
38/59 |
BUTLER |
2.4 |
37/61 |
28/70 |
RENO |
2.0 |
41/57 |
32/66 |
Kansas is one of the most vulnerable state houses for Democrats. Gov. Laura Kelly benefited in 2018 from a terrible opponent (Chris Kobach) as much as the Democratic-friendly nature of the year. While Kelly faces a more normal (though still arch-conservative) opponent this year, what few polls we’ve seen recently suggest she could survive, especially if right-wing independent candidate Dennis Pyle takes a few points away from the GOP nominee, Derek Schmidt. The race may come down to the affluent suburbs of Kansas City in Johnson County, which have quickly turned blue in recent years thanks to educational polarization.
MICHIGAN
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 50% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
50/49 |
51/48 |
WAYNE |
15.8 |
67/31 |
68/30 |
OAKLAND |
13.9 |
55/43 |
56/42 |
MACOMB |
8.9 |
44/54 |
45/53 |
KENT |
6.5 |
51/47 |
52/46 |
GENESEE |
4.0 |
53/46 |
54/45 |
WASHTENAW |
3.9 |
71/27 |
72/26 |
OTTAWA |
3.0 |
37/61 |
38/60 |
INGHAM |
2.6 |
64/34 |
65/33 |
KALAMAZOO |
2.6 |
57/41 |
58/40 |
LIVINGSTON |
2.3 |
37/62 |
38/61 |
The one big Midwestern swing state that doesn’t have a Senate race on the bill this year is Michigan, but there are many important things going on there. That includes the gubernatorial race, where Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer is favored against her underfunded Republican opponent Tudor Dixon but where the race is far from a done deal. The ballot also includes a statewide referendum on abortion rights. Whitmer will need to rack up a big win in Detroit’s Wayne County, as well as smaller wins in the state’s smaller cities, in Kent, Genesee, and Ingham Counties (Grand Rapids, Flint, and Lansing, respectively). One other thing to be concerned about in Wayne County is turnout. Even if Whitmer meets her benchmark percentages, it could be a problem if it turns out that Wayne’s vote is, say, less than 15% of the state total.
NEVADA
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 50% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
50/48 |
50/48 |
CLARK |
69.1 |
54/44 |
54/44 |
WASHOE |
17.9 |
51/46 |
51/46 |
DOUGLAS |
2.4 |
34/63 |
34/63 |
LYON |
2.2 |
28/69 |
28/69 |
CARSON CITY |
2.1 |
43/54 |
43/54 |
Nevada is rather similar to Arizona, in that it’s a state where Joe Biden won narrowly in 2020, so no adjustment of numbers is necessary. Also, it’s a state where the large majority of the population lives in only one county: Clark County, home of Las Vegas. It’s a state, as well, where polling suggests that both Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Gov. Steve Sisolak are among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Even though Clark County takes up much of the state’s vote, Democrats need double-digit wins there to make up for the dark-red remainder of the state.
NORTH CAROLINA
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 50% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
50/49 |
49/50 |
WAKE |
11.4 |
63/35 |
62/36 |
MECKLENBURG |
10.3 |
68/31 |
67/32 |
GUILFORD |
5.1 |
62/37 |
61/38 |
FORSYTH |
3.6 |
57/41 |
56/42 |
DURHAM |
3.3 |
81/17 |
80/18 |
BUNCOMBE |
2.9 |
61/38 |
60/39 |
CUMBERLAND |
2.7 |
58/40 |
57/41 |
NEW HANOVER |
2.4 |
51/47 |
50/48 |
UNION |
2.4 |
38/60 |
37/61 |
CABARRUS |
2.1 |
45/53 |
44/54 |
GASTON |
2.0 |
36/62 |
35/63 |
JOHNSTON |
2.0 |
38/60 |
37/61 |
North Carolina has a bit of a sleeper Senate race for a Democratic pickup, but that shouldn’t actually be too surprising; Joe Biden lost only very narrowly here in 2020 and Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley will need only a small improvement on his numbers to win. Unlike Georgia, where much of the vote is consolidated in the Atlanta area, North Carolina has a number of smaller metro areas; Beasley, of course, will need to win all of them convincingly though to overcome the state’s red rural areas.
OHIO
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 50% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
50/48 |
45/53 |
FRANKLIN |
10.7 |
70/28 |
65/33 |
CUYAHOGA |
10.6 |
71/27 |
66/32 |
HAMILTON |
7.3 |
62/36 |
57/41 |
SUMMIT |
4.7 |
59/39 |
54/44 |
MONTGOMERY |
4.5 |
55/43 |
50/48 |
LUCAS |
3.4 |
62/36 |
57/41 |
STARK |
3.2 |
45/53 |
40/58 |
BUTLER |
3.1 |
42/56 |
37/61 |
LORAIN |
2.7 |
53/45 |
48/50 |
WARREN |
2.3 |
39/59 |
34/64 |
LAKE |
2.2 |
47/51 |
42/56 |
DELAWARE |
2.1 |
51/48 |
46/53 |
MAHONING |
2.0 |
53/45 |
48/50 |
Democrat Tim Ryan’s relative polling success against Republican J.D. Vance in the open-seat Ohio Senate race has been a surprise, but Ryan seems to have figured out a formula for overperforming the last couple sets of presidential numbers in this one-time swing state. Ryan will, naturally, need to run up the score in the Columbus and Cleveland areas (Franklin and Cuyahoga Counties, respectively), but also narrowly flip some of Ohio’s declining industrial areas back into the blue column, like Lorain/Elyria and Youngstown (in Mahoning County).
PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 50% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
50/49 |
50/49 |
PHILADELPHIA |
10.7 |
81/18 |
81/18 |
ALLEGHENY |
10.4 |
59/39 |
59/39 |
MONTGOMERY |
7.4 |
62/36 |
62/36 |
BUCKS |
5.7 |
52/47 |
52/47 |
DELAWARE |
4.7 |
63/36 |
63/36 |
CHESTER |
4.5 |
58/41 |
58/41 |
LANCASTER |
4.1 |
41/57 |
41/57 |
YORK |
3.4 |
37/61 |
37/61 |
BERKS |
3.0 |
45/53 |
45/53 |
WESTMORELAND |
3.0 |
35/63 |
35/63 |
LEHIGH |
2.7 |
53/45 |
53/45 |
NORTHAMPTON |
2.5 |
50/49 |
50/49 |
LUZERNE |
2.2 |
42/57 |
42/57 |
DAUPHIN |
2.1 |
53/45 |
53/45 |
CUMBERLAND |
2.0 |
44/54 |
44/54 |
Pennsylvania really is this year’s Big Cheesesteak (or Hoagie or Pretzel or Shoofly Pie or whatever local food item you might prefer), with the potentially-decisive Senate race located here, as well as a gubernatorial race with a clearer Democratic advantage but one with clear 2024 election implications. Democratic candidates John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro can win by mirroring Joe Biden’s 2020 totals, which involves dominating in Philadelphia and its suburbs (like Montgomery and Delaware Counties), while holding down losses in the state’s smaller cities. Fetterman may also have some subtle upside in the Pittsburgh area, as the first Allegheny County-based Democratic Senate candidate in a number of decades.
WISCONSIN
COUNTY |
% OF 2020
STATEWIDE VOTE |
WHAT DEMS NEED
TO BREAK 49% |
2020 PRES.
RESULTS |
STATEWIDE |
--- |
49/49 |
49/49 |
MILWAUKEE |
13.9 |
69/29 |
69/29 |
DANE |
10.5 |
75/23 |
75/23 |
WAUKESHA |
8.1 |
39/60 |
39/60 |
BROWN |
4.4 |
45/53 |
45/53 |
OUTAGAMIE |
3.3 |
44/54 |
44/54 |
RACINE |
3.2 |
47/51 |
47/51 |
WINNEBAGO |
2.9 |
47/51 |
47/51 |
KENOSHA |
2.7 |
48/51 |
48/51 |
WASHINGTON |
2.7 |
30/68 |
30/68 |
ROCK |
2.6 |
55/44 |
55/44 |
MARATHON |
2.3 |
40/58 |
40/58 |
LA CROSSE |
2.1 |
56/42 |
56/42 |
SHEBOYGAN |
2.0 |
41/57 |
41/57 |
As always, our final stop is Crucial Waukesha County, as well as its other equally crucial neighbors in the Badger State. Wisconsin sees Democratic Gov. Tony Evers trying to hold on in this narrowly divided state, as well as a potential pickup opportunity against Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. Evers and ticket-mate Mandela Barnes don’t actually need to come close to winning Waukesha County, though it would be helpful if they can maintain Biden’s relative overperformance from 2020 in this well-educated suburb even without Donald Trump directly on the ballot. They do, however, need to put up both big percentages and big turnouts in Milwaukee and in Madison (Dane County) while coming close in the smaller industrial cities.