This was a tough week to write a GNR because I have been avoiding the doom and gloom news.
But I came out yesterday to see where we were at and was pleasantly surprised by how hopeful it made me.
Yes, the polls have been scary recently, but I am still filled with hope that we can do MUCH better on Tuesday than people think. If we really hustle, we can keep the Senate AND the House.
Yup, I said it. It is possible.
There are no guarantees — I have no crystal ball. But, anything is still possible. All we need to do is GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTMFV
So, I’m going to tell you some reasons that I am hopeful, and then I am going to give you some ideas for things you can do to get us over the finish line! I hope that after reading the reasons for hope, you will be ready to work hard for just a few more days.
Most of the info I have here is from Simon Rosenberg, Michael Moore, and Tom Bonier (although this morning even Nate Cohn admitted that the polls they are using are partisan polls pushed by Republicans).
Come Get Your Hope
Let’s take this head on: the bad polls.
Why am I not freaking out about them?
First, the red wave narrative is being pushed by R leaning pollsters flooding the zone with R leaning polls. They learned how groups like 538 work — by averaging polls — and they are gaming the system.
Here is a new poll from yesterday — a Marist poll not an R pushed poll — that is a problem for red wave narrative
Highly respected Marist has dropped 3 Senate polls:
Fetterman 51-45
Kelly 50-47
Warnock 48-48, up 4 w/RVs
Respected independent polls are 4-8 pts more Dem than the recent flood of bullshit GOP polls.
Two-thirds of non-partisan generics have Ds up/even in past week-
ANOTHER EXAMPLE:
In GA last 5 "A" rated independent polls have Warnock up an average of 3.2 pts, and he leads in every poll. In October Rs have dropped 15 different polls by *10* different pollsters. The last 5 of these have Walker up 4.4 pts.
Also, even the good polls are now with “likely voters” at this point which means A LOT of guess work — with registered voted we do even better (see the note next to the Warnock poll). For example, these polls assume tiny numbers for young voters and new voters. I don’t buy that (See next sections)
Second, when we look at early vote numbers (actual data on people actually voting) we see great trends.
We can’t compare Rs and Ds directly here because Rs started voting less early in the lasty years. But we can compare to how Ds looked compared to Rs in 2020 at this point. IOW, if in 2020 Ds had 60% of the voters, are they at at least that now? And, looking at that, Ds continue to overperform in early vote in the Senate battlegrounds-
Remember, for there to be a red wave we need to see it in poll/state/early vote. That simply isn't happening. -
In key Senate races Rs are DOWN from 2020 in early vote
Also, Senate, Hispanic, youth polling are good for Ds
Early vote started our strong and has actually IMPROVED for Ds in last few days-
An early vote update via TargetEarly:- Ds lead 50-39, have 3.2m natl vote lead. Overall turnout is above 18- States w/D share above 2020 (+net increase): MI +22, NJ +15, WI +14, GA +12, PA +12, IA +10, IN +10, OH +9, VA +8, MN +7, TX +6, NE +6, AZ +4, NV +3, WA +3, NC +3, NM +2
Those numbers are from yesterday — Nevada early vote got much more D last night!!
This early vote data is a *repudiation* of red wave narrative.
Democrats are currently ahead in the rural early vote in Iowa. 45 to 40. They lost it by 14 two years ago. They lost it by 15 4 years ago. Like, this is NOT something that happens.
Something's happening in Iowa, folks
- Rs are underperforming their 2020 numbers in the early vote in almost every major state- R Senate candidates are under 2020 Trump results in AZ, GA, IA, NC, OH, PA. This is the opposite of a red wave.
The early vote actually got more D this week. 4 states - AZ, NC, TX, WA - moved 4-5 points more in recent days.
Dems now have a bigger lead in the early/mail voting in NC than they did at this point in 2020. Up to that point it was one of only 5 party reg states underperforming '18 and '20.
Movement is towards us, not Rs.
You might be thinking “Well, Goodie, that might all be true, but that is just because, compared to ‘20 a higher portion of Democrats are voting ahead of time rather than on the day of the election.” This will all even out (or worse) on election day”
Well maybe.
But maybe not.
In fact, it looks like a BIGGER proportion of Dem vote will come on Election Day vote compared to 2020 vote.
Look at this chart of early voting: Democrats are actually 14 percent MORE likely to say they will vote day of the election than they were in 2020 (Republicans are only 4% more likely) Why? We were worried about COVID in 2020.
So this idea that we are burning all our votes now and this will all disappear on the 8th? No one can know for sure, but I don’t see any reason to assume that.
Third, special election results are important
A reminder that one party overperformed in 5 House specials (it was us),
Remember Kansas? The polls said it would be dead even and we won BY 14 POINTS!!
We saw big voter reg spike since Dobbs-
We had candidates raise much more money-
The red wave didn't show up in the 5 House specials. It didn't show up in Kansas. It isn't showing up in the early vote. It isn't showing up in the Senate battlegrounds. It may come, but it's not here yet.
We have never seen a party overperform in a ton of August specials only to get blown out in November.
Fourth, they are underestimating Democratic enthusiasm
The polls assume that Democrats are less energized and less likely to vote.
Ask yourself: does it really feel like that to you????
Who is more energized right now?
- Dems outperformed in the House specials and Kansas;
- our candidates have raised lots more money (and DOMINATED in small donations);
For example, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) has massively outraised her GOP rival, retired Gen. Don Bolduc, according to the latest filings with the Federal Election Commission, allowing her to keep flooding the airwaves in the small but consequential state.
- we had a spike in voter reg this year;
- and now we are crushing it in the early vote.
There are a lot of headlines about Republicans being more enthusiastic about voting this year, relative to Dems, based on poll responses. But here is the thing — Republicans may just be more likely to say that they are enthusiastic. For example, here's the NPR/Marist Poll from just before Election day 2018, where the GOP had a 5 pt advantage on enthusiasm.
What happened? Dems won the House vote by 8.6%.
What might be motivating the left? Fear of MAGA. It is what drove the last two elections.
And abortion. The R pollsters want you to believe that woman cared about abortion rights in August and September but have forgotten about them now. Do you believe that? I sure don’t. Neither do people on the ground:
Do you feel like that is gone???? Honestly, do you? I sure don’t.
These people don’t:
Fifth, Republicans are not acting like they are expecting a red wave
This week Rs are devoting significant resources to bolster their incumbents in IA, NC, OH. Kind of the opposite of a red wave.
This is why Rs have been flooding the zone with bullshit polls, and are committing resources to IA, NC, OH.T They are not winning the battle for the Senate.
Look at what they do, not what they say. Spending R money in IA and OH is NOT a red wave.
Sixth, youth voter registration is up
Kids are registered to vote in record numbers:
On Nov 1, Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) — the leading nonpartisan research center that focuses on young people’s civic and political participation — released its latest report. Based on 41 states where data is available, youth voter registration, age 18-24, is up 6% nationally compared to 2018. And in an election year where a number of races may be decided by a percentage point or two, anything above that in terms of new, young voters can make all the difference for the Democrats.
And this increase is in some of the states with the most hotly contested races:
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+38% Michigan
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+29% Kansas
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+20% Colorado
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+18% Nevada
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+14% N. Carolina
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+14% Texas
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+5% Arizona
A study by Harvard recently revealed that 40% of all young adults plan to vote in this election — a record! Just two midterm elections ago in 2014, that number was just 19.9%! The study also found that young voters want the Democrats in charge of Congress by a 26 point margin.
And what are the main issues these young liberal-leaning voters say are bringing them to the polls?
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Abortion
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Protecting Democracy
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Inflation
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Climate Crisis
and they are showing up:
HUGE youth turnout numbers out of Pennsylvania: more than 60,000 young Democrats in PA have cast their ballots. This time, in 2018, that number was barely over 15,000.
Another way to look at it — In 2018, young Democrats accounted for 60% of the electorate, now it’s 81% of the electorate. That's a *21%* increase!
Young people are fired up and are voting. Don't believe otherwise.
In summary, remember, on what was supposed to be tough week for Ds:
- Majority of generics have Ds tied/ahead-
- Very strong Senate polling among non-partisan polls-
- Strong early vote got more D as week went on-
- Rasmussen has Ds gaining 2 pts-
- Rs still defending IA, NC, OH!, still dumping BS polls
Whew. Feeling any better?
I hope so.
The honest truth is that this is likely to be very CLOSE and every single vote will count.
We need you in order to win!
Here is what you can do in these last few critical days:
GOTV Action
1. Next Gen is calling young voters to make sure they GOTV. Sign up to help there here
2. Swing left is organizing a Last Weekend event to get everyone working to make an impact in the most competitive races by connecting with voters during The Last Weekend before Election Day: November 5-8, 2022. You can sign up here
3. Know anyone who isn’t planning to vote because they don’t think Democrats and Republicans are that different or that this election isn’t that important? Share this with them
4. Pledge to reach out to Democrats you know who may or may not make it to the polls and encourage them to go. Maybe offer to go with them!
5. Move On is doing Phone Banking to GOTV. You can help at this link
6. The closest House races can still use money for last minute GOTV. Anything you donate at this link immediately goes to the closest House races.
Finally — keep faith. We fight as hard as we can and, no matter what happens, we regroup and fight some more.
I am so lucky and so very proud to be in this with all of you. 🧡💜💛🧡✊🏻✊🏽✊🏾✊🏻✊🏽✊🏾💛💚💜🧡