Sorry, America, but the Republican Party is likely to come out of the midterm even more Trumpy than it was going in.
The most likely scenario is that, even if Democrats have a good night—keeping the Senate but losing the House, for instance—Donald Trump will still have played kingmaker in many House races, along with anointing some statewide winners. All of those Trump picks will be the worst, most deluded MAGA election deniers the country has seen, and anything short of total Democratic dominance likely foretells a scenario in which the GOP once again rolls over at the feet of Trump.
For the past week, Trump has been teasing his 2024 announcement, telling a Sioux City, Iowa, crowd Thursday that he would "very, very, very probably" run again. On Monday, twitter was abuzz with reports that Trump might announce during an election-eve rally in Ohio on behalf of GOP Senate nominee J.D. Vance.
The slow-but-sure GOP cave has already begun. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas announced Monday that he was bowing out of 2024 contention, citing family reasons. It's not much of a loss, but he clearly sees the Trump train coming and decided to fold early.
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Trump already has his eyes on the person who might be his most formidable rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump reportedly got a little snippy over DeSantis' gag-worthy ad depicting him as a "fighter" created by God "on the eighth day." The Washington Post's Greg Sargent writes, "The Florida governor’s allies were said to be shocked and upset when Trump described Ron DeSantis over the weekend as 'Ron DeSanctimonious.'”
Shocked! The pearl-clutching of DeSantis' inner circle is useless. This will all come down to what kind of bragging rights Trump has after this week and how many donors will have the guts to put their necks out for DeSantis once Trump makes his play.
Never-Trumper and Bulwark publisher Sarah Longwell doesn't think DeSantis stands a chance.
"DeSantis is not going to run against Trump," Longwell tweeted Sunday. "DeSantis is all bluster and uncomfortable smiles. Trump will do to Ron what he did to Marco, and Jeb, and Christie and Cruz. Ron won’t risk it. The GOP accommodated Trump. Gave him the keys. Now he’s not going to let them move on."
Given the fortitude Republicans have shown ever since 2016, Longwell is more likely right than wrong. No one has had the guts to take Trump on, and none of DeSantis' donors—no matter how much they say they prefer him over Trump—will want to be on the outs with Trump world. At the end of the day, all those donors just want to be part of the "in" crowd. Standing on principle is useless to them.
Sadly, Trump is just as repugnant as ever. Speaking at a campaign rally Sunday in Miami, Florida, Trump mentioned "crazy Nancy" before gleefully joking, "By the way, how is she doing lately?"
Time to prepare for another election cycle in the gutter, courtesy of the anti-democratic Republican Party. The scary part is, this time Trump will enter the 2024 race with a network of election deniers already in place waiting to do his dirty work on the other side.
Saving democracy isn’t the work of several cycles, it’s the work of a generation.
At long last, the 2022 midterms are almost here! With the battle for the House front and center, we give you a window into the key races on a final pre-election episode of The Downballot. We discuss a wide range of contests that will offer insight into how the night is going, including top GOP pickup opportunities, second-tier Republican targets, and the seats where Democrats are on offense. And with many vote tallies likely to stretch on for some time, we also identify several bellwether races in states that count quickly.