Control of U.S. House still undecided

Joan McCarter

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday November 09, 2022 · 8:07 AM PST

2022/11/09 · 08:07

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 04: The U.S. Capitol building is seen through steam from a vent and fog on November 4, 2022 in Washington, DC. Republicans are poised to regain control of the U.S. Congress in the midterm elections on November 8 after the Democrats gained the majority in both the House in 2018 and Senate in 2020. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

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In a long and wild night of vote counting, it’s still uncertain whether the U.S. House of Representatives will remain in Democratic hands, or turn into a Republican-controlled zoo. But because the margins are so tight, the majority the Republicans would end up with would be small enough to make every faction within the conference vie for power. Which means miserable times ahead for GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy. If Democrats don’t win an outright majority, that’s a consolation prize.

As of Wednesday morning, the official tally from AP is 199 Republican seats to 177 for Democrats, which includes five still-undecided races in California (which uses a top-two primary system) where Democrats are running against one another. The Daily Kos Elections team has the details of where things now stand, and will be tracking developments throughout the day.

McCarthy gave a muted and possibly premature victory speech in the wee hours of Wednesday after most of his guests had left the party. “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority,” he said. Because he still had to make it personal against Pelosi, even after she was the target of an assassination attempt less than two weeks ago, an attack that left her husband seriously injured and her future in leadership undecided.

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If the House does go Republican, it’s going to be anything but a cakewalk for McCarthy to even achieve the Speaker’s gavel. That there wasn’t a decisive win for Republicans is going to redound on him in the conference, and he’s going to have to court the various factions of his conference who will all be fighting for dominance. Getting the 218 votes he needs to be Speaker is going to be complicated. One potential challenger, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), took himself out of the running Wednesday, insisting he’s running for Majority Leader. That’s one down.

More fallout can be coming from the far-far right of his conference. After McCarthy decided to play footsie with the Marjorie Taylor Greene/Lauren Boebert faction, it will be really interesting to see what happens if Boebert loses, as is looking likelier by the hour. Will they blame McCarthy for her loss? Will the more normie among the Republicans point to that loss and others, and blame him for letting the conference move to the fringes?

As David Nir points out, to get the Speakership, “you need to win a majority of the full chamber. That means that if all members are present, and there are no vacancies, and everyone casts a ballot for an actual candidate, you need 218 votes.”

In theory some Republicans could vote "present" instead of voting for McCarthy, which *would* reduce his target below 218. But the number would be very small: The R caucus minus the D caucus, less one. So if, say, you have 220 Rs and 215 Ds, only 4 Rs could vote present
— David Nir (@DavidNir) November 9, 2022

His members are definitely making calculations right now, and plotting what deals they’re going to make with him for their support. If Republicans win, and if McCarthy retains leadership, he’s got another problem—the pledge he made to end proxy voting. With margins as tight as they will be, he’s going to need just about every vote on just about everything. While Republicans have bitched and moaned about the COVID-19 pandemic-inspired process, which allows members to vote by proxy, they’ve used it.

Finally, if you’re tracking the Daily Kos House endorsements, there’s great news. Every one of the candidates identified by the Elections and Endorsement team proved competitive. As of Wednesday morning, seven of them are leading, and we have two outright wins that are flips (out of 12 endorsements).

And the House could still go to Democrats! It could happen. “While many races remain too close to call,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement at 1:30 a.m., “it is clear that House Democratic Members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country.”

Control of U.S. House still undecided

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