In our second episode, we are joined by Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, whose knowledge of elections is unparalleled. Jeff gives us an exceptionally thorough overview of the top contests in the 2022 midterms. Enjoy!
Beard:
Hello, and welcome. I'm David Beard, contributing editor for Daily Kos Elections, here with my co-host, Daily Kos' political director, David Nir. How's it going, Nir?
David Nir:
Things are going well, and I'm excited for today's guest, who is Daily Kos Elections' editor, Jeff Singer. Jeff has been part of the team at DKE for many, many years, and no one knows more, I mean, no one knows more about every single down ballot race taking place every single year. And there are just so many, too much to cover in one podcast. What we're going to do today is a preview of the key races at several different levels that we're all looking at for November. So we're going to start with the Senate. We'll talk about some House bellwethers. We will also look at the huge playing field in governors races. And we'll probably talk little bit about redistricting, legislative races, and get even a little further into the weeds because the weeds are where we live. Really looking forward to having you on, Jeff.
Beard:
There's no one better to help us run down this huge year for down ballot races than Daily Kos Elections editor, Jeff Singer. Welcome to the first of many appearances, Jeff.
Singer:
Thank you, Beard. It's great to be here.
Beard:
So there's obviously way too much to cover for just one podcast. And that's why we've got a lot planned, to go really deep into a lot of these races, but we just wanted to start out with a broad overview. And so we can then return to this and go deeper later on. So why don't you start off by giving us sort of a bird's eye view of what's at stake this year?
Singer:
Well, what's at stake is pretty much everything that isn't the White House. Democrats have a razor thin majority in the House. The Senate is 50-50. It would take very little for either chamber to flip. There are governors galore up this year, and they matter quite a bit, especially after January 6th, when Republicans are talking about using governors to try to sign more voter suppression laws, or even worse, the stakes, it's not an exaggeration to say the stakes have never been higher. And we also have plenty of other races for state legislatures, for district attorneys across the country, for mayors. If it's not the White House, there's a good chance it's up.
David Nir:
Singer, let's start with the Senate, which of course, as you mentioned, is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, Kamala Harris breaking ties in favor of Democrats when they're able to get things to a floor vote. So there are four key seats where the Democrats are on defense, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Why don't you run us through the state of play in those four races? And maybe also give us your thoughts on which of those Democratic incumbents you think might be the most vulnerable in November.
Singer:
I would say the most vulnerable Senate Democrat is Georgia's Raphael Warnock. The reason is Georgia, it just voted for a Democrat for the first time for statewide office, when Joe Biden won the state and Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff won the Senate races the next year. It was the first time Democrats have won a single statewide race in Georgia since 2006. And since then, Republicans have put in place as many voter suppression laws as they can, and they already had quite a few on the books. So Warnock is going through quite a minefield to keep his seat. It's very doable, but he has a lot going against him.
Singer:
Arizona is also a tough one. Mark Kelly, he's another special election winner who won in 2020 for the remaining two years of a term, and now is up for a regular six year term. Arizona's another tough state. Joe Biden's victory was the first time any Democratic presidential candidate had won the state since Bill Clinton in 1996. But Arizona Democrats have done a bit better in statewide races over the last few decades than Georgia. So I would say Warnock is the more vulnerable of the two, but they're both close.
Singer:
For the play in Georgia, the Republican candidate who's gotten the most attention by far has been Herschel Walker. He's the former University of Georgia football champion in the eighties, huge name. He played in the NFL. Donald Trump endorsed him. Every poll we've seen has shown the primary, it's not even a contest. Primaries can be very volatile. We have a while to go before May, but it would take a lot for Herschel Walker to lose the nomination. He's well known. He's well funded. Warnock, he has a ton of money. It's going to be an extremely expensive race.
Singer:
Arizona, things are a lot less stable. You have all sorts of Republicans running. And the big question as we're recording is whether Governor Doug Ducey enters the Republican primary as well. Ducey said he won't, but people don't really believe him. He'd be a big name, but there are a lot of problems with him, namely, Donald Trump hates him. He's another Republican who accepted Joe Biden won, and that put him in the Trump doghouse. So if he runs he's in for a world of pain in the primary, but he'd be the best known candidate. There is a good chance he'd win the primary. No matter what, Arizona, it's a tough state for Democrats. Mark Kelly is going to be in for a real fight, but he won a real fight in 2020. He's well funded. It's going to be a competitive race. It's going to be another one to watch.
Singer:
For Nevada, Democrats have nearly won quite a few statewide races in the last few cycles. They don't have a lot of room for error in anything. The Republicans are fielding former attorney general Adam Laxalt. He was the Republican nominee for governor in 2018. He lost by about four percentage points in a really close race against now governor Steve Sisolak. Laxalt, he has Trump's endorsement. He's likely to be the nominee. He's going up against a veteran named Sam Brown who's been an unexpectedly good fundraiser.
Singer:
And primaries can always go ways you don't expect, but it would be a surprise if Laxalt isn't the nominee against the Democratic incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto. This is another one, it's going to be very expensive. Cortez Masto, she was the first Hispanic woman to represent Nevada in the Senate. She's a former attorney general. She knows the state well, but in a tough year, she can definitely have problems, even against someone like Laxalt, who's embraced the big lie and who lost in 2018.
Singer:
Then there's New Hampshire, where Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, she's the former governor, she won a very, very, very close race in 2016. Republicans have been trying to recruit governor Chris Sununu. He didn't want to be in the Senate, though. He turned them down. They've gotten some candidates who aren't super well known at this point, but New Hampshire's a very volatile state. Democrats have won it in every presidential cycle from 2004 onwards, but it's a state with of plenty of swing voters, more than probably any other state. In a bad climate, New Hampshire can be very volatile. So even a candidate who isn't super well known can definitely have a good shot if the political climate's going their way.
David Nir:
Jeff, thank you so much for that rundown. It was incredibly comprehensive. And I feel like I really understand the state of play in all of the most competitive races in November. But as seasoned election watchers, we all know that some races have the chance to pop up on the radar that maybe we weren't expecting, or we're just keeping a glance on out of the corner of our eye. So I want to chat with you guys and find out what are you keeping an eye on that might not be in the top tier target list, Beard?
Beard:
Outside of those races that Jeff gave us a rundown on, the one that I'm keeping a hopeful eye out on, I'll say, is the Ohio Senate race, where we have a really good candidate. It's an open seat. Tim Ryan, who's been a Congressman for a long time for Northeast Ohio, he's been long talked about as a potential statewide candidate. Often declined. His seat is potentially getting lost in redistricting. It's sort of unclear. As a result, for whatever reason, he made the jump in a tough year, but he's got those same sort of union, working class roots that Sherrod Brown comes out of, and has been able to succeed in the state. So I think if anyone can win a Senate race other than Sherrod Brown for the Democrats, it's probably Tim Ryan.
Beard:
Now it is certainly like you've given yourself a really tough challenge by running in what's probably going to be a Republican leaning year, in a Republican leaning state, but he's a good candidate. His opponents are not. I think none of them are great candidates. They all have issues. Josh Mandel was the state treasurer, was running in a previous year and then dropped out. JD Vance has got this notoriety for writing his book, and then sort of dived as far right as you could possibly go so people didn't think he was a DC person.
Beard:
And then there's some rich people as well, that are just spending gobs of money. So it's a very messy Republican Senate primary that could really bring out a damaged nominee, which would help, you know, for Ryan, it really needs to go perfectly for him. And that's one way that you could see all of the other positives building on each other, if he has a damaged opponent.
Beard:
So that's the one I'm sort of keeping my fingers crossed about, to see if we can at least be competitive once we get later in the year. What about you, Nir? Do you have one you're keeping an eye out on?
David Nir:
So I had been worried about Maryland. A dark blue state the Democrats usually can take for granted but Republicans had made a major push to try to recruit their term limited Governor Larry Hogan to run against Democrat Chis Van Hollen. Hogan is quite popular he has managed to earn a lot of crossover votes in a state that typically votes Democratic up and down the ballot. He would have been a real potential threat I don't know if he could have won, Maryland is just that blue. But at the very least he would have made Van Hollen sweat pretty hard. And the last thing Democrats need in a cycle like this one is more seats to worry about. But fortunately democrats got good news, Hogan said that he is not going to run and in fact I think he knew exactly what Democrats were thinking because he said he called Van Hollen up and told him you can sleep easy tonight. Van Hollen is going to get to sleep easy fortunately for the rest of the year though I'm sure he'll still be fundraising and campaigning like any good Senator does. You know, usually I'm something of a pessimist, at least I try to be that's what's in my blood but I will briefly mention another race instead that I'm looking at that is on the more optimistic side of the ledger.
That’s the Senate race in Florida where Marco Rubio is up for re-election. Democrats have a very strong recruit there in congresswoman Val Demings who is a former chief of police in the Orlando area and has really seen her star rise during her tenure in Congress. This is a super hard race though no doubt about it. Florida seems to have moved to the right. Of course, as we have said repeatedly, it's a difficult midterm environment but Marco Rubio is such a loathsome creature and in 2016 you may recall he didn’t actually want to run for reelection to the Senate after his disastrous presidential campaign. So who knows if his heart is really in it and if somehow some way things should turn around for Democrats then maybe Republicans have to sweat Florida so keep an eye on that one. So that's my take, Jedd how about you?
Singer
I would say the race that we should be paying attention to that maybe we're not is Missouri. It's a state that it was a swing state just even a decade ago. It was the state that when you thought swing states, you thought Missouri, but it's gone very far to the right since then, since Obama nearly lost in 2008. It's probably going to stay that way. But this is another one where Republicans have a truly packed primary, and they have some pretty strange candidates. Eric Greitens is the former governor. He resigned in disgrace in 2018 after both a sex and campaign finance scandal. He's running again. He has Peter Thiel, the billionaire, in his corner.
Singer:
... Peter Thiel, the billionaire in his corner. Republicans, they know Greitens has so many stink lines on him. If he gets nominated, he would give Democrats a bigger opening. Mitch McConnell very much doesn't want that. He's hinted that he'll spend to try to keep that from happening, but it's a very packed primary. You have the attorney general running, Eric Schmidt. You have not one, but two House members running. Things can get out of hand very quickly here. And Democrats have a few interesting candidates. If Republicans nominate what passes for a normal Republican candidate these days, they're probably fine. If they get Greitens though, or if whoever comes out of this is just so banged up, the Show Me State could give us something to watch.
Beard:
Great. And I think one thing that I think you'll listeners you'll see as you come along is that Nir will provide a voice of reason, if you will, to keep our eyes on the bluer states in what's probably going to be a bad year to make sure that we're not you overly optimistic. And I'll try to be the voice of hope that's ultimately dashed. But other years will be better.
David Nir:
Well, I am a Mets fan after all, Beard.
Beard:
There you go. You can't... You have been trained since birth to look at life this way. Let's move on to the House where Democrats hold a very narrow majority. And the name of the game is really redistricting. We'll have a deeper dive on specifically redistricting later on as we get throughout the year. But what sort of the broad takeaway from how this redistricting cycle is going to adjust the map and change sort of how a bunch of these races are going to be going in 2022 versus 2020?
Singer:
There are some big variations by state, but a lot of what we've been seeing is locking in the status quo. In Texas, for example, Republicans did what they could to take a bunch of seats that had become competitive, that they managed to hold in 2018 and 2020 and locked them up so that they're safely red. Some Democrats were a bit relieved by this. They thought Republicans would go all out and try to target them at every chance. And they were a bit relieved that that didn't happen, but not necessarily a good thing. The status quo we have now is tilted to the right. Sometimes hard to remember that because we did win the House under the current maps in 2018, 2020. But in the lead up to 2018, there was a lot of talk about how Democrats could win millions more votes in House races and still lose the House. What we have right now is a rigged playing field and locking it up isn't good. It's not good for Democrats, it's not good for democracy.
David Nir:
I think that's an excellent point. And it's also something to remember that happened in relatively recent history, in 2012 Democratic House candidates nationwide won more votes than Republican candidates nationwide. And again, that was also a year immediately following redistricting. And yet in 2012, House Republicans still kept control of the chamber. That would be a very painful thing to happen again. But like you said, Jeff, that is truly a terrible thing for democracy when the party that wins the most votes doesn't win the most seats. But let's drill down a little bit from that bigger picture, do you think that there are any seats, especially in districts that have been redrawn where states have completed the redistricting process that are bellwethers, that we might look at not necessarily just for 2022, but also for trends for the future?
Singer:
I do. Arizona, that's a big one. That was handled by a redistricting commission made up of two Democrats, two Republicans, and one independent. The map they adopted, at first glance, it's a status quo map. We came in with Biden carrying five seats and Democrats holding five seats to the Republican and Trump's four. At first glance it also looks like a status quo map. Under the current map, Republicans won four of the nine seats. Trump won those four of the nine seats, Biden and Democrats won the remaining five. But the new map does weaken Democrats in a few of those seats.
Singer:
And the big one I'm looking at is Arizona's new 6th congressional district. It's right in the Southeast corner of the state. It takes up Tucson and some of it's more conservative suburbs. The current district that it's most like voted for Joe Biden with 55% of the vote. This new district, this new 6th, it voted for Biden by something like 49.3%. So he still won it, but it was super, super, super close. And that's one where we're going to be watching to see who has control. And the Tucson region has moved quite far to the left over the last decade. It was very swingy, now it's pretty reliably Democratic. But we'll have to see if those trends continue. This is one I could see us watching all decade.
Beard:
For sure. And one of the things about House races is that they tend to develop later, particularly in a redistricting year where these Senate races have been top of mind since those Georgia runoffs. Everyone knew what the 2022 Senate outlook was going to be and what the top races were going to be. Whereas in a number of states, we are still waiting on what the maps are going to be. So everyone is in a holding pattern. And as those get resolved, and as we get close to the election, we'll be able to better understand what specifically... What's the list of races that people are going to be focused on. But what we're going to do is the same thing we did for the Senate races. We're going to each highlight a race to keep an eye on this year to see how it develops. So I'll throw it over Nir to give his submission.
David Nir:
So do you guys remember a couple months back when the worst person you know, truly the worst person you know actually made a good point and that was Marjorie Taylor Greene when she complained about what Georgia Republicans had done in redistricting. And she wasn't complaining about her district, her own district, which was interesting. She was complaining that Republicans were setting themselves up for failure in the Atlanta suburbs by drawing a district that she thought would actually become vulnerable for the GOP a little bit down the line. And this is a famous district. Georgia's 6th district where we had the Jon Ossoff special election just a few years ago. And of course, Ossoff is now Senator in that district, was won by Lucy McBath.
David Nir:
So Republicans targeted McBath, and they pushed her into another district against another Democrat in the hopes of winning Georgia's 6th by making it a district Trump won by about 10 points or so, except the Atlanta suburbs as a whole spreading further and further from the city keep trending to the left. So it really is possible that MTG could wind up being right about this. Now, I don't think Democrats are going to win Georgia's 6th this November, but I will be really curious to see the margins. That's what we were following the Ossoff race to see if the trends actually keep moving to the left here. I definitely have my eye on that one. And I have to say, I hate, hate that she could possibly be right about this.
Beard:
I mean, I would love nothing better for her to be right about this. Even a stopped clock, that's what they say. The race that I'm going to pick is one that sort of pairs with my Ohio Senate choice from earlier, it's Michigan's 10th district. Michigan has completed their redistricting process and it has shaken things up a little bit. They have a... And they had an independent process for the first time ever after the previous maps were gerrymandered. So you've got seats that have sort of never been done quite like this before. There's a Grand Rapids based seat that's potentially competitive. And here Michigan 10 is a Macomb County based seat. For those of you not familiar with Macomb County, it's sort of the classic home of the Reagan Democrats that turned away from Carter and to Reagan in the '80s. Very white working class, pretty heavily union compared to most of the rest of the country, heavy UAW presence. That's historically been represented by Democrats, but has been trending right.
Beard:
Sort of in the opposite direction from the seat that the Nir observed, as various cultural influences have hurt Democrats among white working class voters. The new map doesn't really... The previous seat took the district into more Democratic areas so that it kept it relatively Democratic. And now it is a more purely Macomb based seat. And so it's seen as a very good Republican pickup. The Democratic incumbent who could have run there, Andy Levin, chose to run in the neighboring Michigan 11th district, which is more Oakland County based. It's not quite clear who the Democratic candidate's going to be. John James, who just ran for Senate in 2018 and 2020 losing narrowly, but I think generally impressing Republicans for how he ran his race and his results, has jumped into this race, even though he's not from the district. So it's going to be interesting to see how he fares. There's every possibility that he just runs away with it and it's not even on the map by November, but it's also possible that it could be a really interesting competitive race. That's the race I'm going to keep my eye on throughout the year.
David Nir:
And by the way, right now, this is our plea to Congressman Andy Levin, please run in the 10th district instead of the 11th against Haley Stevens. We all saw that poll came out showing Stevens beating you in the primary. We don't need to lose a good Democratic incumbent this way. You can still switch races. It is not too late.
Beard:
And I even tweeted about how I thought Levin had a decent shot at the 10th when the maps were finalized before he announced for the 11th. So that was like a personal affront to me by the Congressman. So there's still time to fix this, but we'll see how that works out. Jeff, what about you? What House race are you keeping an eye on?
Singer:
The House race I'm keeping an eye on is Maine's 2nd congressional district. It's in the Northern part of the state. This is one where redistricting really isn't much of a factor. It barely changed. Trump still won it 53 to 46%. Democrat, Jared Golden, he's seeking a third term. And his likely Republican opponent is someone he's very familiar with, former Congressman, Bruce Poliquin. Golden narrowly beat him in the 2018 Democratic wave. That was the first time that Maine used its rank choice voting system. And Poliquin actually got a plurality vote in the first round, but you don't win with a plurality under rank choice. Golden won enough support from the other candidates that he pulled ahead. Poliquin never, ever, ever accepted that defeat. He still maintains he was the rightful winner and he's trying to take the seat back. Poliquin's a very well connected guy, but so is Golden. This is going to be a big test if Democrats can still hold any of the seats that Trump won. If Golden can't do it, it's going to be hard for anyone to. So this is one I'm going to be watching.
David Nir:
So we have so much to cover. And Jeff, you mentioned at the top of the program, that there are ton of races for governor this year. Midterms are always the big year for gubernatorial races, which is a word I'm going to avoid for the rest of the podcast. That is not good for radio. So let's start with the Democratic pickup opportunities this year. There are not that many, but it looks like team blue does have a couple of options. And I think most people would agree that those two are in Massachusetts and a state we mentioned a little earlier, Maryland. So why don't you tell us about those two races?
Singer:
I'll start with Massachusetts where I live. Charlie Baker, the Republican governor is retiring after two terms. Baker has been very hard for Democrats to beat in large part because Massachusetts does have a tradition of electing Republican governors who manage to sound moderate in order to counterbalance the democratic dominance of every other thing in Massachusetts. I emphasize ‘sound moderate’ because the person who is the front runner for the Republican nomination, former State Representative Jeff Diehl, he is not someone who sounds moderate in the least bit. He was the Republican nominee against Elizabeth Warren in 2018. He predictably lost. This time he has Donald Trump's endorsement. He hasn't accepted Joe Biden's the rightful winner. He's exactly the person that Republicans nominate when they want to lose Massachusetts. He has some primary opposition, but it'll probably be hard to beat him in a primary with that. But then again, the last time Massachusetts Republicans had a competitive statewide primary for an office, they actually had a chance to win, it's been a very long time.
Singer:
It's not something that happens very often. So we're on untested ground here. The Democrats have a primary of their own, but the front runner is the Attorney General Maura Healey. She'd be the first lesbian governor of any state. She has some opponents from the left, but she's very well funded, very well known. It would be a big surprise if she's not the nominee. And if it's her versus Diehl in the general election, it's hard to see her losing. Turning to Maryland, as we said, Larry Hogan is termed out. Maryland, it's a state where unlike Massachusetts, Democrats have usually controlled the governorship. And this time, Democrats have a very crowded primary, very hard to see a front runner at this point, and on the Republican side, this is another state where Donald Trump is mucking around in a place he's really not welcome.
Singer:
He's endorsed a delegate, Dan Cox, who has been... Well he's about as bad as you think for someone endorsed by Trump. He's supported the big lie. I believe he even trucked some people over to the Capitol on January 6th. His main opponent is the Former Secretary of Commerce Kelly Schultz. She'd still have a hard time winning general election in Maryland, but she's more the type of Republican who can. Larry Hogan hasn't endorsed her, but there isn't really much of a question she's his candidate. So we'll see. That's the primary we're going to definitely be watching. And even if Schultz pulls it off, this is one where Democrats have a good shot no matter what.
Beard:
And one of the benefits that Democrats have in Maryland and Massachusetts is that there's a heavy Democratic baseline vote. So that even in a Republican leaning year like people believe 2022 to be, they can overcome that and still win the races, particularly if, like you say, these Trump endorsed candidates who are not trying to appeal to the median voters in these win their primaries, and then it really becomes easy for whoever the Democratic nominee is to bash them over the head with that. Let's look at a couple purple states that don't have that benefit where Democrats are going to try to pick up the gubernatorial races. Arizona and Georgia, which are also the center of the Senate universe, also have competitive races for governor. So they both got strong Democratic nominees and some messy Republican primaries. So why don't you tell us what's going on there?
Singer:
I'll start with Georgia because when you say messy Republican primary, this is sort of the epicenter of it. Brian Kemp, he won in 2018 with Trump's endorsement. But he recognized Joe Biden won Georgia and the election 2020, so there he goes as far as Trump's concerned. Trump's endorsed Former Senator David Perdue, who lost one of the 2020 runoffs to John Ossoff, and this is going to be a big bloody one. Trump just did a direct to camera ad for Perdue, where he just trashed Kemp and he trashed the almost certain Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams, who lost a very flawed election to Kemp in 2018. She's running again. This one could go on a long time, especially since Georgia requires candidates to win a majority in the primary in order to avoid a runoff. So this one could be going well past the May primary on the democratic side. Stacey Abrams, she has no serious opponents, say she's waiting for whoever emerges from this.
Singer:
Arizona's a bit more complicated for Democrats. The front runner Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, she had a few bad months where there was a lawsuit from a former black state Senate staffer who said that when Katie Hobbs was in charge of the state Senate Democrats, she participated in a conversation to have the staffer fired for what the staffer believes is racial reasons. Hobbs has apologized, but plenty of people haven't accepted the apology and it's been dogging her. Hobbs has two serious opponents in the primary, Former State Representative Aaron Lieberman and Former Homeland Security Official Marco Lopez. Neither of them has anything like her name recognition or resources, but we'll just have to see how this one goes. The Republicans, on the other hand, this is yet another primary where Trump has intervened. He's endorsed former TV journalist Kari Lake, who has adopted, even by Trump's standards, some very strange conspiracy theories.
Singer:
She's gone deep down the rabbit hole on COVID. She's on just the worst far right social media platforms you can get. Like Ron Johnson, she just seems to be testing just how bad can you be and still win the swing state? She has some serious opponents for the nomination. There's a few well-funded people, including Karrin Taylor Robson, she's a Board of Regents member. She's a self funder. You have a few others like that. Steve Gaynor, who lost to none other than Katie Hobbs for the 2018 race for Secretary of State. He's pumped in millions of his own money. You have Matt Salmon, he's a former Congressman. He was the Republican nominee for Governor in 2002. He narrowly lost. So this is another one where we'll just see the power of Trump's endorsement. Lake hasn't raised much money, but if Trump's loud enough and the primary's crowded enough, she can be the nominee easily.
Beard:
It's also worth noting that Arizona has an extremely late primary date. So this, potentially on both sides, hopefully more on the Republican side, could be a big factor.
David Nir:
And you mentioned, Jeff, that 2018 race for Secretary of State, that was a big one when Katie Hobbs picked up that seat from Republicans in a very narrow race. So she does have experience winning statewide, but I think we'll turn now toward the other end of things and look at Republican pickup opportunities because we have to face facts. Republicans have a lot of them. They are playing a lot of offense. They are running in races that Democrats, in many cases, narrowly won in 2018. So this is the boomerang from the last big pro Democratic wave. So why don't you talk about maybe not all of them, there probably are too many for this episode, we'll have you back, but maybe talk about the biggest ones and also with an eye toward how a Republican control might actually affect the electoral college?
Singer:
The biggest one to look at is Wisconsin. Tony Evers, he narrowly beat Scott Walker in 2018. Walker isn't running again, but his former Lieutenant Governor, Rebecca Kleefisch, is. Kleefisch, she's a former TV journalist. She has statewide connections. The Republican establishment likes her. But she doesn't have a clear path to Republican nomination. That's because Kevin Nicholson, he's a Marine and a businessman who lost a really expensive 2018 Senate primary. He's running. He's an interesting guy. For one thing, he's a former president of the College Democrats of America. He gave a speech and support of Al Gore in 2000. Nicholson says after that speech, he realized, "I'm not a Democrat." But we found he helped Democrats in Minnesota in 2002 and voted in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary. That dogged him in 2018, couldn't happen again. And he has some very rich people in his corner. Even if he doesn't, when he can make trouble for Kleefisch.
Singer:
But Wisconsin, it's a state where Trump narrowly won in 2016, narrowly lost in 2020. Scott Walker narrowly lost it to Tony Evers in 2018. This is one where even if Republicans do everything wrong, they still have their opening, especially if the political climate is going their way. So I would say Wisconsin is the big one to watch. And in terms of what a Republican governor could do for Trump's or whoever's prospects in 2024, quite a bit. Evers is what's standing in the way of so many burst pressure laws. If he's not there to veto them, then we'll just see how difficult Republicans can make voting, and who knows what else they can put in place to try to make sure that whoever gets the most votes in Wisconsin, Trump gets those electoral votes. A few years ago, this would've sounded like a conspiracy theory. But after January 6th, no, this is something to take seriously.
David Nir:
So in that vein, I think you also have to add in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Again, some really close swing states with even larger pools of electoral votes and Republican state legislators who have been talking about passing laws that would allow them to subvert the results, like you said, to make sure Trump wins, regardless of whether he wins the most votes. So why don't you tell us about those two states as well?
Singer:
Yeah, so in Michigan, Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer is up for reelection. She won a very decisive win in 2018, but Michigan's another state that the political winds, if they shift, they can shift very hard in the wrong direction. Republicans have a very uncertain primary there. Plenty of candidates, no clear front runner. But I would say the most important thing I've learned watching elections over all these years is that even candidates who look weak long time away from the election, if they get the nomination, they have a good chance to win. Someone who doesn't look like a particularly good candidate, if they get the nomination, they can have an opening. Republican money is going to be very, very big here in Michigan. They want Whitmer gone.
Singer:
Whoever wins the nomination is going to have access to all the money they can use. And Michigan's another state where if things are bad for Democrats, anyone has an opening on the Republican side. Pennsylvania is a similar story, except there's no Democratic incumbent because Tom Wolf has termed out. The Democratic nominee, almost without question, is going to be the Attorney General, Josh Shapiro. He won a close race in 2016, even as Trump was winning Pennsylvania. He won again in 2020, he ran ahead of Biden. He's very well funded, has no serious party opposition. The Republican primary is just a demolition derby of all sorts of candidates, no front runner. Until Trump endorses someone that probably won't be for a while, but just like in Michigan, any Republican nominee has a real chance to win.
David Nir:
So continuing the theme with those two states, there are, of course, also going to be state legislative elections for thousands of legislative seats across the country. But it seems worth highlighting the states you just talked about, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those have both been under GOP dominance for a very, very long time. Not just the congressional maps, but the legislative maps in both of those states have been badly gerrymandered for decades, and that's finally changed, or are finally about to change, I should say. And both of those states will not have Republican drawn gerrymanders starting this year. So can you maybe walk us through a little bit about what's changed there and what hope that might-
what's changed there and sort of what hope that might offer for Democrats, whether in November, or at least in the coming years of this decade.
Singer:
From the '90s onward, every decade, the Republicans had complete control of their districting process. They drew up favorable maps. Except for after the 2006 and 2008 elections, Democrats had no control over either house of the Michigan legislature. They won the state house both those years then lost in 2010, having gotten it back. This time in Michigan though, because of a 2020 ballot measure, an independent redistricting commission drew up the lines. And they've drawn something very different from Republican gerrymander.
Singer:
It's a map that, in a reasonable year, Democrats could win either the house and state Senate. The state Senate, which has been in Republican control since 1984, that one's a bit of a tough nut to crack, especially since the entire Senate, it's up in midterm years, not from presidential years. So if Democrats want it, they really need to take it this year, or almost certainly just wait until 2026.
Singer:
Pennsylvania, like Michigan, is a state where Republicans have controlled the legislature almost continuously for decades. Democrats won narrow majorities in the state house in 2006, 2008, lost in the Republican wave in 2010. The state Senate has been in Republican hands since the '90s. But there's hope. Pennsylvania redistricting, it's done by commission, but the tiebreaker is appointed by the state Supreme Court. The Republicans, in the last few decades, have controlled that tie breaking vote. This year, the Democrats are the ones in charge of the court. Democrats swept the court elections in 2015, one of the most consequential down ballot victories in a very long time. And they still have control. Democrats now can select the tiebreaker and ensure, for once, we get fair elections.
Singer:
Like the Michigan Senate, the Pennsylvania Senate is a tough nut to crack. Unlike Michigan, where all the seats are up in midterm years and never in presidential years, half the Pennsylvania senate's up in presidential years, half is up in midterm years. Republicans have a big majority of the Senate, so this could be a two cycle process, and especially if 2022 has some setbacks. But if Democrats have a solid year or two, they could see the first majority in both chambers of the Pennsylvania legislature in a very, very long time.
Beard:
A broader point on redistricting that... I've seen a lot of this in recent weeks, as in some states, Democrats have gerrymandered more aggressively, or things have unexpectedly not been as bad as feared, has been this Republican freak out over, how dare Democrats draw a gerrymandered map or get a fair map, thanks to a court ruling. When clearly in a lot of Republican eyes, gerrymandering is the purview of only their party.
Beard:
And what I would say to of them is that, Democrats have tried very hard to pass non-partisan gerrymandering reform through Congress. They tried to get it enacted through the Supreme court, ruling that gerrymandering was unconstitutional. And Republican justices and Republican members of Congress have repeatedly and nearly unanimously stopped that. And so, I'm all for nonpartisan gerrymandering. I think we all are here. I think Democrats broadly are. Republicans could make that happen tomorrow, if they want. And as long as they don't want to do that, they have to live with the fact that Democrats are going to play by the rules that they set. And they're not going to just sit around being good government liberals who are like, "Blue state should have fair maps and red states should have Republican maps."
David Nir:
That's exactly right. If you want to understand the Daily Kos Elections philosophy, that's it, in a nutshell. We will not unilaterally disarm. And I don't like gerrymandering, but I am glad to see that Democrats are not being wimps this cycle.
Beard:
Exactly. So there's too many governors races to run through. We've talked about some about top ones, but again, just like we did for Senate and house, we want to each highlight a race that we want to keep an eye on, as the cycle develops. Nir, what do you got for us?
David Nir:
I am once again, going to play the voice of the downer Mets fan. I am going to talk about a state though, that is overrun by Yankees fans. That's Connecticut. This of course, is yet another traditionally, typically blue state on the federal level in particular. It's elected only Democrats to Congress for a long time. But it has a history of really painfully close races for governor. And that even included in 2018 when Democrat, Ned Lamont, won by just two or three points against Republican, Bob Stefanowski. Stefanowski is back for a rematch. And I think that this is one... Don't sleep on it because like I said, these races have been close. Even in a blue wave, it was still close. Luckily, Democrats somehow won in the GOP waves in 2010 and 2014. But on a real tough night, Connecticut could go the wrong way.
Beard:
Yes, it is the Ned Lamont that you're thinking of that ran in a democratic primary against Joe Lieberman in 2006, beat him in the primary, only to lose to Joe Lieberman's decision to run as an independent and split the vote three ways in 2006.
David Nir:
But we got the last laugh because now Chris Murphy sits in that Senate seat. And he's awesome.
Beard:
For me, I'm looking at Maine, which is where Jeff's congressional race was. Janet Mills who won in 2018, replaced Paul LePage, who was term limited out after a very controversial tenure, let's say. And he is back. Now that he is taken four years off, he can run again. So he is back for another try. He remains controversial. He remains very Trumpist. And I think Mills is probably the favorite. Maine is a blue state, not a super blue state, but tends to vote more democratic than Republican, on the whole. But in a Republican lean year, it's very possible that you could see him swept in the way that he was in 2010 and 2014. So, that's definitely one to keep an eye on. Jeff, what about you?
Singer:
Mine is Alaska. And a big part of that is, Alaska is going to do an election that has never been seen before in America. In 2018, they voted to get rid of their partisan primary system. Everyone runs on the same ballot in August and before candidates with the most votes, before. They advanced in November. And in November, there's a rank choice ballot, never seen something like this before in America, if not the entire world.
Singer:
We have some interesting candidates. The Republican governor, Mike Dunleavy, he's up. He made a very early introduction as a far right extremist, when he first took office. Draconian fights with the state Supreme Court, you name it. There was a serious recall against him that got derailed because of the pandemic, but this is the time voters have to finally have their say.
Singer:
Quite a few candidates are running. One to watch is Dunleavy's predecessor, Bill Walker, a former Republican turned independent. They are some Republicans running to Dunleavy's right, which is hard to imagine, but that's where we are now. There's a democratic, former state representative. It's just not any type of race we've ever seen before. So, this is one where we're going to watch. Alaska, it's a Republican state, but it can be unpredictable. Voters can often be open to voting for independence, like Walker. We're going to just see how this one and goes.
Beard:
And the Dunleavy race is also interesting because it had one of the more embarrassing turns of fealty to Donald Trump in a long, long list by Republican-elected officials.
David Nir:
Wait, which one was this? I'm not remembering this one. The list is so long.
Beard:
This is the one where Dunleavy had to promise to Donald Trump that he would not endorse the much hated Lisa Murkowski for reelection. And once he made his promise not to endorse her, because Trump doesn't like her, he was able to get the endorsement. And that didn't just happen behind the scenes, Trump wrote it in his press release. It was like, "Contingent upon this specific thing happening, I will endorse Mike Dunleavy." And Dunleavy was like, "Oh yeah, he doesn't have anything to worry about. I made... The promises were made." So that's always fun to see, yet another sickening fealty to Trump.
Beard:
But that's one of, again, many, many governor's races that we're going to be covering throughout the cycle. And where we want to end and where it's been a long list. I know we've gone through a lot of races, but we just want to touch a little bit on some other down-ballot races.
Beard:
A lot of states are going to be electing other statewide offices beyond the governor's race. Things like Attorney General, Secretary of State, Labor Commissioner, Secretary of Education sometimes. My home state of North Carolina, even though they do this on presidential years, it's a huge slate. It's like 12 offices. Some states only have a couple, but a couple of the most important ones, particularly in light of, again, January 6th, are the Secretary of State races, when they run elections and the generals. So Jeff, do you have just one or two of those races that we really want to keep an eye on, looking towards the fall?
Singer:
I would say, Michigan. That's one of the epicenters of all this. Democrats swept the Attorney General and Secretary of state races in 2018, both democratic incumbents are on the defensive. Trump has weighed in on who he wants as his nominees. This is going to be a big one. Big election for voting rights for just rights in general, in a swing state. We're going to want to watch that one.
David Nir:
Sounds like Michigan has us covered from top to bottom. I think we mentioned almost every single race in this podcast. So, we will certainly be keeping a close look at the Wolverine State. Jeff Singer, editor at Daily Kos Elections and absolute mastermind when it comes to knowledge of down-ballot races.
David Nir:
Thank you so much for your insight on every single one of these contests. And we know we will be having you back on soon to revisit some of these and discuss some fresh ones soon.
Singer:
Thank you. It was great to be here.
Beard:
That's all from us this time. Thanks again, to Jeff. The Downballot comes out every Thursday, everywhere. If you haven't already, please like and subscribe to the Downballot. And leave us a five star rating and review. Thanks also to our producer, Cara Zelaya and editor, Tim Einenkel. We'll be back next week with a new episode.