A few days ago I speculated, as did others, that Putin might order the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 20th, that being the day the Beijing Olympics ends, so as not to embarrass Xi Jinping, whose supports he needs right now. It was also the day the Russo-Belorus exercises were scheduled to end.
Well, it looks now like it may be happening:
And from CNN:
New Intel adds to US fears that Russia is readying for military action
The US has intelligence indicating orders have been sent to Russian commanders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine, according to two US officials and another source familiar with the US intelligence.
The intelligence regarding the order to tactical commanders and intelligence operatives is one of several indicators the US is watching to assess if Russian preparations have entered their final stages for a potential invasion.
Other indicators, such as electronic jamming and widespread cyberattacks, have not yet been observed, according to some of the sources. The sources cautioned that orders can always be withdrawn or that it could be misinformation meant to confuse and mislead the US and allies.
See also Why some observers think Sunday will be the day Russia acts against Ukraine from 9:00 AM EST:
Analysts looking at Russia’s menacing buildup of troops on Ukraine’s borders have long circled Feb. 20 as a day to watch for potential action. Sunday marks the confluence of several events and milestones that some think could — amid the feverish guessing game surrounding the standoff — hold deeper meaning.
The New York Times updates the situation:
“Everything leading up to the actual invasion appears to be taking place,’’ Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Sunday, appearing on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “All of these false-flag operations, all these provocations to create justifications — all that is already in train.”
Still, an official cautioned that the Kremlin has developed multiple war scenarios, and it is not clear yet exactly how an attack on Ukraine might play out, including how quickly, for example, Russian forces might move on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.
I will continue to monitor the situation as best I can, but it does look like Putin is crossing the Rubicon.
Sunday, Feb 20, 2022 · 10:18:18 PM +00:00 · Dan K
CNBC is reporting that Biden unexpectedly canceled his trip to his Delaware home after his meeting with the National Security Council:
President Joe Biden abruptly canceled plans on Sunday to go to his home in Delaware for the holiday following a four-hour meeting of his national security team to discuss the Russian threat to Ukraine.
The trip home was a last-minute addition to the president’s schedule, announced on Sunday afternoon at 2:41 p.m. A little over an hour later, however, it was canceled.
It’s unusual for a U.S. president’s travel plans to change this quickly, especially plans that involve leaving Washington.
Monday, Feb 21, 2022 · 1:30:51 AM +00:00 · Dan K
About an hour ago (4:30 PST), CNN posted this update: Satellite imagery shows Russian ground forces dispersing to positions close to the Ukraine border
New satellite imagery shows intensified activity among Russian units close to Ukraine's northeastern border, with units that were in garrisons appearing to take up field positions.
The satellite images were collected by Maxar on Sunday. . . .
Maxar observes, "This new activity represents a change in the pattern of the previously observed deployments of battle groups (tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and support equipment). Until recently, most of the deployments had been seen primarily positioned at or near existing military garrisons and training areas."
In addition:
Separately, CNN has geolocated several videos from the region over the weekend that show long columns including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and howitzers moving through rural areas in the Belgorod oblast (district). . . .
CNN has observed that some tanks and other vehicles in the area appears to have been marked with a large "Z" -- suggesting they are being formed into a fighting unit.
It is still possible that Putin is bluffing and/or posturing and that a diplomatic alternative, such as French President Macron is working on, may yet come to pass. But all the signs tell me Putin has put himself in a position where, unless the West totally capitulates to him, he has no way to back down. He may not intend to occupy the entire country, but he has to show some gains obtained by force in order to satisfy his hard-liners and justify the expense and tension of placing 150,000-190,000 Russians in harm’s way. Probably he will try to replace the Kyiv government with his own puppets is my guess at his minimum goal.
Monday, Feb 21, 2022 · 1:50:25 AM +00:00 · Dan K
Update (h/t to marsanges): France announces it has gotten Putin and Biden to agree to a summit on the 24th in principle. The Elysee Palace released a statement:
The President of the Republic has conversed with Biden and Putin. . . .
He has offered that a summit can take place between Biden and Putin and then with all the engaged parties, concerning the security and strategic stability of Europe.
Biden and Putin have each accepted such a summit in principle.
. . .
The summit can only take place if Russia does not invade Ukraine.
(This is my on-the-fly translation, a bit shortened, since I can’t seem to access the English version provided by the Elysee.)
The foreign ministers will meet on the 24th (not Biden and Putin as I’d originally reported; h/t again to marsanges) to arrange the summit itself. So at this point I am hopeful but still skeptical, because Putin loves to manipulate and play head games. If this is a stall, it may be he is buying time to set up yet another false flag, hoping this time we won’t find out in advance and broadcast it. If so, he is underestimating our resolve and (I hope) our intelligence capabilities.
The onus is all on Putin to prove he isn’t going to war.