Like most everyone else, I have been sickened and horrified by the prospect of Russian invasion of Ukraine. I have been trying to fantasize that somehow the underdog ( Ukraine) will pull some kind of surprise move to negate the overwhelming advantage the Russians possess in terms of advanced weaponry and the number of tanks. I have learned a new Russian word — “rasputitsa,” which gives me some hope. Put on your green wellies and step off into the pasture with me.
Mud Season.
We have it in the Great State of Maine, it’s the first half of spring when the frozen ground starts to thaw, but before any buds form on the trees. It’s perfect weather for Maple Syrup processing. Gravel roads throughout Maine are closed to heavy traffic.
They have mud season in Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia as well. The waterlogged ground has lots of clay content and the mud gets very deep. It is easy to find videos of Wermacht troops trying to pull armored vehicles out of the mud back in World War Two. Mud season is said to have stopped Napoleon and Hitler.
They say there is only a small window of weather to remain before mud season arrives in full force.
The Big Question
“How would you use this to your advantage if you were trying to prevent an invasion?
Here is what I was thinking I would do.
1) first, you can’t prevent the cruise missiles or aerial bombardment or cyberwarfare.
2) you can force as many of the tanks as possible to drive on the ground, i.e., the unpaved areas. This is possible by demolishing stretches of pavement. The Ukrainians can bomb their own ground without creating an incursion onto the Russian side of the border. I would find a way to flood the ground near the roads as well, to enhance the mud.
3) you can make sure that sources of petrol now in Ukraine are unavailable to the Russians. If the Russian Army can gas up using Ukrainian gas stations it becomes too easy to keep moving. If you destroy the fuel-tank farms and petrol stations you force the Russians to truck in their own fuel.
4) you can continue these efforts even after the Russians have penetrated all the way to Kiev. A month from now. It will prevent them from leaving once their tanks have arrived, and they will eventually run out of fuel. And food too, for that matter. If they get to Kiev before mud season? they are stuck there.
Everyone is familiar with the term “Quagmire.” The mud of eastern Europe in mud season is the very definition of quagmire.
Going Nuclear
Ukraine is not a nuclear country, they gave up their warheads decades ago. I do have this fantasy in which they announce they found a dozen or so hidden in a barn somewhere. Yes, I know that this is advocating for a return the arms race and nuclear conflagration.