Minnesota’s courts for the 7th decade in a row have drawn new legislative maps to be used for the decade. This is a relatively brief run down of the winners and losers of the Minnesota Senate, and how key districts have changed. This will not be as comprehensive as a full 67 seat analysis, but this will hit the big points of where things stand a week after the new maps dropped. All numbers are in partisan lean per DRA and not CPVI or any other partisan system. For reference Minnesota as a whole is D+7.1, which means anything to the right of that is to the right of the state, and anything to the left of that is to the left of the state. It should be noted that “winner” and “loser” are relative to current status, and does not necessarily mean that any incumbent/party is going to win or lose in November.
For reference, the old maps can be found here
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::862e76e7-b645-4524-b9df-c219de12ddfc
And the new maps can be found here
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6c555f45-86d6-441d-bd76-11ea80fe9244
SD3 (Old 3) Tom Bakk (I, formerly D Majority Leader). Bakk’s district had to grow, and it was surrounded on basically all sides by territory more Republican than itself. As a result his seat goes from D+9 to EVEN. Bakk himself is super popular locally and an entrenched incumbent. The big question is which party, if any, does he run under. If anyone other than him knows, no one is saying. Giant wild card
Bakk is okay either way in terms of winner/loser, Republicans are winners
SD4 (Old 4) Kent Eken (DFL). Eken’s district didn’t need to shed population in spite of being an outstate district due to growth in and around the college down of Moorhead which is just across the bridge from Fargo ND, however the courts redrew his district to be more easterly and less northerly from the city core, which shifted his entire district 5.5 points to the Republicans going from D+2 to R+3.5
Eken is a big loser here, and Republicans are winners.
SD7 (Old 6) Dave Tomassoni (I, former D). Tomassoni is Bakk’s right hand man, and is retiring following a diagnosis of ALS last year. His seat he leaves behind has gotten much redder in redistricting going all the way from D+5.5 to R+8.5, a massive 14-point swing. Republicans look to win an election in this Iron Range seat for the first time in the better part of a century.
Tomassoni is retiring, Republicans are winners
SD14 (Old 14) Freshman Senator Aric Putnam (DFL)’s St. Cloud district changes minimally as being a St. Cloud seat with little else meaning his seat goes from D+2.0 to D+2.8. He’ll certainly welcome anything he can get in terms of partisanship, but a light blue dot in a seat of dark red is a win for the incumbent
Putnam is a winner. Democrats are winners. (minimally)
SD24 (Old 26) Carla Nelson (R) drew the good straw in Rochester. Rochester has grown explosively over the last decade and went from being divided in half (split evenly between the old 25 and 26) with both seats increasingly narrowly being held by Republican incumbents. Rochester is now large enough as to have 3 House seats, and Nelson’s district is now only 1/3 of Rochester instead of 1/2. Her district takes in blood red territory in Brown County to the west which moves her seat to R+2.1 from a much less comfy D+7.8. The ever-growing Rochester will continue to inch this seat to the left in the coming decade, but Nelson is breathing a sigh of relief as her 2022 campaign just got MUCH easier
Nelson is a winner, Republicans are winners
SD25 (Old 25) David Senjem (R) got the short draw in redistricting as now his entire district is Rochester, and 100% unwinnable for any Republican, even one as established and well known as him. This district now clocks in at a whopping D+23.5 after being a more manageable D+4.8.
Senjem is a loser, Democrats are winners
SD32 (Old 37) Jerry Newton (DFL) is elderly and announced his retirement in 2021. His seat appears to have been intentionally drawn to favor Republicans by running this Blaine based seat all the way north into much more Republican Columbus Township instead of staying inside of Blaine as existed previously and could have been supported with appropriate population now. Republicans get a gem of a gift here with a formerly D+5.8 seat going to R+1.0. It will likely be a battleground seat all decade.
Newton is retiring, Republicans are winners
SD33 (Old 39) Karin Housley (R) is best known outside of Minnesota as the person who lost against Tina Smith for US Senate in 2018, locally she is better known as a powerful State Senator based out of northern Washington County. Her seat doesn’t change much beyond contracting into Washington County instead of sprawling into Chiscago County. This changes the seat’s political leanings only a slight amount from D+0.2 to D+0.7. Housley was a target before, and she’s a target now.
Housley is a loser, Democrats are winners (minimally)
SD35 (Old 35). Jim Abeler (R). Where Republicans got a Boon in Blaine, they took a hit in Anoka. Anoka used to be paired with deeply conservative Ramsey to its north, and is now lumped in with deeply liberal Coon Rapids to its south. Abeler is historically a strong electoral overperformer, but he is certainly not going to be happy with having his seat go from R+9.4 to D+4.2
Abeler is a loser, Democrats are winners
SD37 (Old 34). Warren Limmer (R) has been representing Maple Grove from way back when Maple Grove was a Republican core electorate. That has shifted underneath his feat and his once formality-level elections have become razor thin. His seat also moves to the left, becoming D+6.2 from D+3.3. That ~3 point difference is significantly larger than his 2020 margin of victory overall.
Limmer is a loser, Democrats are winners
SD41 (Old 54) Karla Bigham’s (DFL) Cottage Grove home was drawn out of her SE Washington County seat as Cottage Grove was split in half in the new configuration. Bigham has already announced her intentions to run for Washington County Commissioner instead of moving. Bigham’s new political course leaves open this swing seat open. 41 got less blue in redistricting going from D+6.2 to D+2.6. Republican State Rep Tony Jurgens is already jumping into the fray for the open seat, while Democratic candidates have not yet declared as of 2/21.
Bigham is running for County Commissioner instead, Republicans are winners
SD45 (Old 33-ish) Dave Osmek (R) and Ann Stewart-Johnson (D) are double bunked here in what is essentially a Lake Minnetonka-only seat and is insanely wealthy. Osmek is DOA if he runs here as he’s been squeezed out of a seat; Osmek holds a Senate seat that is more or less the western half off this seat but was R+4.0 while this seat is now D+16: completely unwinnable for him. While freshman Johnson-Stewart lives in the northeastern-most corner of this seat, the lion’s share of her territory ended up being renumbered 42 and she has not announced her intentions yet. A person who HAS expressed her intentions is DFL State Rep Kelly Morrison who is running for Senate in SD45. I can’t imagine that Morrison would jump the gun and primary an incumbent Senator, so signs point to Johnson-Stewart having alternative plans she has yet to reveal.
Osmek is a loser, Stewart-Johnson may be a loser, Democrats are winners
SD48 (Old 47) Julia Coleman (R) the daughter-in-law of former US Senator Norm Coleman is in her first term and what turns out to be her last term in a comfy Republican seat. Not that Julia is DOA, but her district contracts significantly due to explosive growth in eastern Carver County this decade and thus sheds basically all of the rural turf she currently Represents. The seat goes from R+9.5 to D+1.0. This will be a competitive seat in 2022 and beyond.
Coleman is a loser, Democrats are winners
SD54 (Old 55) Eric Pratt (R)’s Scott County seat shrinks considerably, consolidating to Shakopee and Prior Lake and little else. This change moves the seat from R+7.0 to R+2.5. This seat is moving left, and while Pratt is going to be a favorite should he run for reelection, this is a seat that is expected to be competitive later in the decade due to the political shifts in Shakopee as it has grown.
Pratt is a loser, Democrats are winners
SD58 (Old 20???) OPEN. This is the “What didn’t fit anywhere else” seat that takes in an awkward U-shaped district that runs from New Prague in the west, around the south of Lakeville, taking in uber-liberal Northfield, suburban Farmington and all the way to the outskirts of Hastings on the Wisconsin border. No Senator lives here, nor particularly close to here and the area will be tough to have a base from which to run. It’s a light red seat clocking in at R+4.7
No incumbents to win/lose, Republicans are winners
This doesn’t include all of the changes, eliminated seats, double bunkings nor where everyone is running as a lot of those dominos have yet to fall. But in summary of the 15 competitive seats, 8 are Republican (Or R caucusing I) held, 4 are Dem held, 1 is a D-R paired district, and 1 district is open. 8 of the districts have Dems as winners in redistricting changes, while 7 of them have Republicans as winners of cartography. There were 28 “Outstate” seats previously, and there are 26 in the new map per numbering convention; conversely there were 39 “Metro” seats in the old maps with 41 in the new maps. The boundaries between metro and outstate shift slightly to reflect population and new boundaries, but more or less 2 Senate seats move to the Twin Cities and away from the rurals.
Of the Senators who have announced their retirement plans as of 2/21:
Dave Tomassoni (I-SD7)*, Bill Ingebrigtsen (R-SD12), Scott Newman (R-SD17)*, Michael Goggin (R-SD20), Julie Rosen (R-SD22)*, Mary Kiffmeyer (R-SD27)*, Jerry Newton (D-SD32), Chris Eaton (D-SD38), Chuck Wiger (D-SD44), Susan Kent (D-SD47), Greg Clausen (D-SD56), Patricia Torres-Rey (D-SD63)
Of the Senators who are vacating their seats for another office as of 2/21:
Paul Gazelka (R-SD6), Michelle Benson (R-SD31), Karla Bigham (D-SD41)*
Of the House members who announced their runs for Senate
Jordan Rasmussen (R-SD9), Barb Haley and Steve Drazkowski (Both R-SD20. LOTS of bad blood here), Cal Bahr (R-SD27)*, Eric Lucero (R-SD34)*, Kelly Morrison (D-SD45)*, Tou Xiong (D-SD44), Tony Jurgens (R-SD41)*
*Denotes announcement made after redistricting