How Difficult Is It to Predict the Future? I Mean, Really?
10 years ago, I tried a little experiment. I asked myself whether I could outdo famed prognosticator Nostradamus in predicting the future.
It turned out that I could indeed outdo Nostradamus.
In fact, I kicked Nostradamus's ass.
And in further fact, it was surprisingly easy to do.
In Part 1 of this essay, I will show some of my predictions, along with legitimate news reports on the particular subjects, demonstrating my success as a predictor. This evidence will show that my success as a predictor was orders of magnitude better than the most famous of all seers.
You may find it difficult to believe what you are about to read, but please suspend your urge to scoff, for I can back up what I say.
And to prove it, in Part 2 of this essay, I will tell you HOW I did it. That is no joke. I will spill the secrets. I will give you nine techniques for becoming a better predictor than the most famous (and most overrated) of soothsayers.
I will even take you step-by-step through the formulation of one of my astonishingly successful predictions, to show you how it was done.
A Few Points Before I Begin
First: it is my usual practice to make all of my original graphics (such as my memes) freely available to everybody. I depart from this practice for my two-part essay pertaining to Nostradamus. In other words, I strongly prefer that my graphics not be widely copied. Also, will I look with extreme disfavor upon anyone who claims ownership of this little stunt.
Secondly: Because I will be explaining my methods in an upcoming post, please do not use the comments section below to try to "expose" the secrets. Please allow me to do that in Part 2, and then comment freely. Chances are pretty good that, if you think you know how I was able to do what I did, you're probably correct to some degree; but please keep it to yourself until I publish the second part of my essay.
Thirdly: My methods are NOT methods used by conjurors, mentalists, or others involved in the art of deception for entertainment. There is no sleight of hand, no switching, no forcing, no one-aheads, no past-posting, no phony news sources, no gimmicked props, no smoke & mirrors, none of the funny business that the pros use. I won't be giving away any magical secrets (and those who practice the art of magic for money or as a hobby will have nothing to worry about). Instead, I will be giving away predicting secrets, and as you will see, these "secrets" would be virtually worthless for putting together a magic act.
Fourthly: Do not ask me to predict the weather, nor next week's headlines, nor any stock market activity, nor the outcome of any upcoming wagering event; and do not even think about using my methods to try to break the bank at your friendly neighborhood casino. My secrets will not help you pick a winning horse nor find a generous craps table. Or, at least, I make no guarantee whatsoever that they will help. They didn't help me in any wagering; for, if they did, why would I be writing these essays?
Fifthly: Some of the graphics are taken from a PowerPoint presentation... for a speech I never had the opportunity to deliver. My presentation appears in print here for the first time. All the news reports in the graphics or the accompanying text are authentic. Part 1, in some places, includes links to actual news reports.
Just Who Was Nostradamus, Anyway?
The main thing to know about Nostradamus is that he has this stellar reputation for being a nearly miraculous predictor of the future. There is more to his story than being a seer, but being a seer is what he is known for today.
Nostradamus churned out hundreds of predictions in his day (around the mid-1500s), and most of his predictions went pretty much nowhere. A select few have been identified as predictive of future events. The point of this essay is not to deconstruct Nostradamus’s famous predictions, but to show that I have a track record far better than Nostradamus. And I do. I kicked his ass.
The Experiment Begins
I made about 40-some predictions.
The experiment itself was an exercise in simplicity:
- Make predictions; all predictions had to be of a type where they either came to pass, or did not come to pass, before 1 January 2013.
- Publish the predictions openly (to prove that they are actual predictions).
- Claim success (a “hit”) when there was success. If a prediction was not a proven success by the end of 2012, it was a failure (a “miss”).
That was pretty much it.
I published my predictions on a website that effectively date-stamped each prediction and allowed everyone to see the predictions. As prediction after prediction came true (or mostly true; not all were on-the-nose), I claimed a "hit." Most of my predictions were "hits," although, as you will see, there were some jaw-dropping "home runs" that were far more amazing than any Nostradamus prediction. (Perhaps you think I overstate? Well, then, read on, gentle reader.)
Some Predictions in the Field of Astronomy
Some of Nostradamus's writings weave in some astrological symbolism, sometimes mixed with astronomy. Astrology is a pseudoscientific offshoot from the legitimate science of astronomy. (Like Isaac Asimov, I hold that astronomy is far older than astrology.)
Nostradamus peddled his astrology-oriented bunk as a professional. I am no astrologer, but am by contrast an astronomer, and an humble amateur at that. So, as an astronomer, I made some astronomical predictions. More specifically, I successfully predicted astronomical events that... well... simply cannot be predicted.
As mentioned earlier, some of my predictions are presented here as PowerPoint slides. By way of explanation, the words in red on the slides are the words of my prediction.
This prediction, made on 22 December 2011, proved to be correct, as reported 2 February 2012 by NBCNews.com and others. A planet 22 light years away was indeed discovered with the "right" qualities to support life.
In this case, the prediction correctly predicted one specific word, "right"; and the prediction also correctly predicted that the word would be used multiple times in multiple specific contexts.
This is not my only prediction to be nearly word-for-word in line with published reports. There were many predictions that could fairly be called spooky-close, if not verbatim.
Here is another astronomical prediction, for something impossible to predict, but was predicted correctly anyway:
This prediction, made 23 December 2011, came 100 percent true in the final week of January 2012.
You may have heard of asteroid flybys recently. There have been quite a few... outside the orbit of the Moon. The event in 2012 was noteworthy because the pass was stunningly close (as predicted) and because there were only a few days' warning (also as predicted). Astronomers will tell you that this event was completely unpredictable, but I predicted it all the same. And I was right.
"Titanic Oops"
"Titanic oops" was a prediction that was made on 22 December 2011.
Less than a month later, an "oops" in navigation led to a shipwreck that was repeatedly compared to the Titanic.
This was one of the biggest news stories of 2012.
The Pink Slime Controversy
Here is a simple prediction made on 5 January 2012: "Scandal and rumors will plague a significant food supplier." Such an event subsequently occurred, and was quite newsworthy. AFA Foods (link), a major food supplier, declared bankruptcy in April of 2012, not because of harm actually caused by its food products, but because of scandal and rumors surrounding pink slime.
Obamacare Split
I have a slide for this prediction, but I don't want to use the slide because there is material on that slide that I do not want to talk about until I get to Part 2. Fortunately, the news report I use on my slide is still on the Internet, and I include a link to it below.
The prediction was: "The U.S. Supreme Court will uphold part of the US healthcare overhaul, but not all of it."
This split-decision prediction was made more than six months prior to the event predicted, and was at odds with the views of nearly every legal pundit, most predicting an all-or-nothing outcome; yet the pundits were wrong and the prediction was right.
On 28 June 2012, the US Supreme Court upheld "Obamacare," but not the Medicaid expansion. The prediction was correct. Notably, CNBC, AP and Reuters referred to Obamacare (link) using the language of the prediction (with one modest spelling change: "health care overhaul").
Rachel Maddow Handles a Grotesque Insult
This particular prediction, pertaining to a specific person, was published 22 December 2011. About two months later, it was proven completely correct.
Scotty in Space
The prediction was: "A major Star Trek actor will 'beam up' to the REAL final frontier."
This prediction, published 22 December 2011, came true in May 2012, when the remains of Trek actor James "Scotty" Doohan were launched into space. Several reporters characterized the story as Scotty being beamed up to the final frontier, once again using the language of the prediction. One such report will be shown in Part 2.
Sidelight: A Quatrain for 2002
I have made some of my predictions in the form of four-line poetry, similar in style to the quatrains written by Nostradamus.
Although I did write at least one quatrain for 2012 (which I will discuss in Part 2), I have made successful predictions in many other years, and I will illustrate the technique by reference to a rhyming quatrain that I wrote for the year 2002 (that is, this is a quatrain I wrote ten years earlier than the other predictions in this essay):
A shining sphere in the deep
The eyes of many see with wonder
A perpetrator found asleep
Concealed in the quiet thunder
This quatrain made two predictions. Both were correct for 2002.
In June of 2002, a new dwarf planet was discovered. The Kuiper Belt object, Quaoar (link), is massive enough to form a sphere; and though it is very, very far away, astronomers around the world were able to spot it, because it is so reflective, that is, shiny.
The second prediction refers to thunder. To fans of Nostradamus, thunder is symbolic of gunshots: "The great man will be struck down in the day by a thunderbolt," starts the famous quatrain said to predict the death of John F. Kennedy.
So if "thunder" fairly refers to gunshots, "concealed in the quiet" would seem equally fairly to suggest a sniper.
In late 2002, Washington DC was besieged by the notorious DC sniper, whose gunfire arbitrarily murdered people who happened to be nearby.
The main perpetrator was arrested at a Maryland rest stop, where, exactly as predicted, he was found sleeping.
Missed By One Letter!
Those who think Nostradamus had some sort of predictive talent have been most forgiving when his predictions (as they interpret them) turn out to be off-base. For example, they marvel at how Nostradamus ALMOST divined the name of Hitler, and Nostradamus fans will often crow that this particular Nostradamus prediction missed naming "Hitler" by just one letter.
This is one of Nostradamus's most famous predictions.
The name Nostradamus mentioned was not "Hitler"; it was "Hister."
First of all, it is incorrect to say that this prediction missed by just a single letter. Changing "Hister" into "Hitler" also involves changing the position of at least one letter.
But more to the point, Nostradamus apparently refers to Hister as a river, not as a leader.
"Hister," it turns out, is the Latin name of the Danube River, which flows through Germany. And that fact alone may raise some question as to the, shall we say, impressiveness of Nostradamus's prediction, but no matter.
As it happens, I missed by one letter, too.
I will put it to you that not all "missed by just one letter" predictions are created equal. You might find that what you are about to see is a bit spooky.
Keep in mind that I was operating under a constraint that Nostradamus did not have. Most of Nostradamus's predictions had no "expiration date," but all of my predictions did. His guesses might come to pass centuries later; whereas I had a time window of less than a year. All of my predictions had to come true, or not, before 2013.
Nearly all of 2012 had expired before the events shown here occurred. Two major Hollywood actors did die within a day of each other (on the same day, in fact), and I correctly predicted three of the four initials. The only miss was that instead of "K" I predicted the rhyming letter "A."
Yeah, I missed it by one letter, but I think I still beat that feeble "Hister" prediction.
And I'm predicting right here and now that some of you wags were thinking about posting pictures like this, so I will save you the trouble.
Maxwell Smart
George Not-So-Smart
Beat That!!
One of my predictions was pretty much the same as predictions made by others:
Yeah, it’s still a hit, but meh.
And yet, there were other predictions of events that no one saw coming, including this stunner:
I made this prediction on 23 December 2011. It came to pass, exactly as predicted, in March 2012.
This prediction is notable in three respects.
- The prediction was specific, straightforward, and unambiguous.
- The Government's announcement was a total surprise to everyone.
- The Canadian Government subsequently described what it did in language damn near identical to the prediction: "In Economic Action Plan 2012, the Government announced it would phase out the penny from Canada’s coinage system" (emphasis mine). The Canadian Government could have talked about “retiring” or “discontinuing” or “withdrawing” the penny, but the Government instead chose the specific wording of my prediction.
The success of that prediction was so unexpected and so on-the-nose accurate, that I say to anyone who claims to be a prognosticator: "BEAT THAT!"
Nostradamus, he ain't got nothing close to what I've got. Nor, for that matter, do any of those modern-day self-proclaimed fortune tellers.
Okay, Now, Let’s Stop for a Moment
Those are just some of my predictions for 2012. There are more predictions, as well as more stunning successes. Many more, in fact.
And this was just for 2012, when I decided to keep careful track. (In previous years, I made predictions as a way of developing my methods.)
Some of you might be wondering How in the Holy Name of the Wide World of F*** I could possibly do what I did.
If so, please: Remember your amazement at this moment.
In Part 2, I will make that amazement vanish.
I expect to publish Part 2 in two days. Barring unforeseen circumstances, of course. (Link to Part 2)
One Final Reminder
I will be explaining my methods in an upcoming post, so please, as a courtesy, do not use the comments section below to try to "expose" the secrets. After Part 2 is published, please comment freely. Further, please consider answering my poll question.
Previously
Meme Adventures: Star Trek Edition
The Next Person To Bad-Mouth Joe Biden By Quoting the Bible Gets This Response
Don't Remember Richard Nixon for "I'm NOT a crook"; Remember Him for What He Said Just Before That
Meme Adventures: Abraham Lincoln Edition
Meme Adventures: Haiku Edition
Meme Adventures: Introduction
A Speech That I Hope Joe Biden Never Has to Deliver
It's "Scheisskopf" From Now On
A speech for Donald Trump