It’s night again in Ukraine, which brings its own set of risks and dangers. At this point, dozens of Russian saboteurs and infiltrators have been caught in Kyiv and other cities, where they’ve being trying to start fires, create havoc, and mark targets for Russian attacks. There’s no doubt that many more have gone unnoticed, and the appearance of spray-painted X’s on roof tops, and flashing window lights at night shows that Russian agents are having some success at indicating locations of interest to Russian military forces.
On the other hand, the simple fact that Russian forces are in there with spray cans is a different kind of signal — a signal that Russia doesn’t have an adequate supply of high tech weapons to make the kind of attacks might be expected before such an invasion. Spray paint isn’t the kind of tool that’s necessary when you have centimeter-scale models of the terrain and building, and missiles being guided to their targets with military-grade GPS (or Russian GLONASS). Reports have also come out that Russia missed taking out much of Ukraine’s air defense because their intelligence was simply poor.
Likewise, while the nights have brought some heavy bombardments from GRAD missiles and even pitched battles between armor units, Russia hasn’t been making major inroads into Ukraine under the cover of darkness. U.S. forces prefer to fight at night, because they have the night vision systems to give them a significant advantage over less well equipped opponents. From the Russian forces that have been destroyed or captured so far, there is little to no sign that Russian troops are equipped with such systems.
This doesn’t mean the Russians aren’t formidable. They have systems a couple of generations improved over most of those being used by Ukraine, and as the old dictum (often falsely attributed to Stalin, but apparently the product of the U.S. War College) goes — “Quantity has a quality all its own.” Russia may have lost over 1,500 troops, but Putin can just get out the pitchfork and shovel in thousands more.
Still, every day is bringing a higher price, not just in men killed and equipment lost, but in the unity of a world gathering itself against Russia. Even autocratic leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán can see which way the wind is blowing. Russia isn’t just losing the war so far, and it’s not just losing it’s economy. It’s losing respect. It’s losing its tentative claims to be a superpower in any sense other than sitting on a nest of aging nukes. Even the assumption that Russia would eventually win this thing, the “it’s just a matter of time,” that experts have been putting forward confidently, is starting to seem a little bit iffy.
That bear … doesn’t he look kind of mangy?
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 5:53:39 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Bloomberg reports that the U.S. is weighing a different kind of sanction against Russian banks, one that could hit even harder than removing them from SWIFT, and one that specifically targets the “$643 billion in reserves that Russian President Vladimir Putin had amassed ahead of his invasion of Ukraine.”
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 5:59:26 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This is near that infamous bridge in Kherson. I honestly cannot say who holds the bridge at this moment. Earlier fighting north of Kherson made it appear that Russia had moved on past this location, but more recent statements from Ukrainian forces claim they are in control of the whole area. This has definitely changed hands at least three times.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 6:10:53 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Zelenskyy says he’s talking with the UN about removing Russia from their Security Council seat, an official declaration of genocide against the Ukrainian people, and asking for assistance in recovering the bodies of fallen Ukrainian soldiers.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 6:21:59 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This is the second video to emerge showing Russia has deployed the TOS system to Ukraine. This is a “thermobaric weapons system” designed mostly to attack fortified positions. Think of it as like a GRAD system that fires a series of fuel-air bombs, each of them generating extreme high temperatures and a massive blast wave. These are hugely destructive.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 6:42:04 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Apparently there is an chain of gas stations in Ukraine that is owned by the Azerbaijan government. After a conversation between Zeleneskyy and the president of Azerbaijan, that chain is now providing free gas to ambulances and emergency vehicles in Ukraine.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 6:51:00 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This is in Luhansk oblast. Essentially along the line that the Ukrainian government and Russian-backed forces have been fighting on for years. Russia has been unable to advance from these positions.
Honestly, I don’t know what the part about Rubizhne means. That’s another location directly north of Severodontsk.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 6:57:51 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ukraine has been piling up pledges of Javelin anti-tank weapons and Stinger anti-aircraft weapons. This whole thing may resolve to an infantry battle. In which case those thousands of automatic rifles being handed out in Kyiv could play a bigger role than anyone might have thought at the outset.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 7:01:22 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Posting again that rolling four-camera view of various locations in Ukraine. Earlier, it was possible to see some of that intense exchange in Kyiv, but all appears relative quite at the moment. Civilian traffic moving along the streets in some areas.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 7:08:39 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
We’ve had several false alarms in terms of large numbers of Chechens being sent to Ukraine. However, there are also some Chechen forces already on the ground — and possibly more on the way. These troops are likely better trained, more experienced, and better equipped than most of the Russian forces seen in Ukraine so far.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 8:10:53 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The message from Germany …
“The Russian attack marks a turning point. It is our duty to do our best to help Ukraine defend against the invading army of Putin. That's why we're supplying 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 stinger missiles to our friends in the Ukraine.”
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 8:17:18 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Intense fighting again near Kharkiv. Reporters have indicated that there is some firing into Ukraine from the Russian side of the border. This could easily be the impact of GRAD or artillery fire from the area between Belgrod (Russia) and Kharkiv (Ukraine).
