The Russian government is off its rockers. The war isn’t going as well as it expected, and strongman Vladimir Putin appears to be screaming at his generals to do something. Why else make repeated airborne drops around Kiev in hostile territory without proper support, leaving them as sitting ducks for Ukrainian mop-up operations? Tank columns crossing over from Belarus have been halted. Efforts to break out of the separatist Donbas region have all failed. The Ukrainian Air Force is still in action, as are Turkish drones wreaking havoc on entire Russian convoys. Russia’s only good news comes from the south, where Russian forces seem to be making headway in the southeastern coastal part of the country.
Yesterday, the United Nations Security Council delivered a stark rebuke to Russia, forcing it to use its veto as the lone “no” vote. The point wasn’t for the resolution to pass—Russia’s veto made it a fait accompli. It was to isolate Russia diplomatically. All they needed was one or two “no” votes with them to claim diplomatic cover. Instead, staunch allies India, China, and Brazil all abstained or voted yes. Early that day, Russian diplomats had expressed confidence in getting China and India, at the very least.
It hasn’t even been a day since that vote, and things aren’t looking much better for Russia.
Orban is a Putin-in-the-making. Elections this April will determine whether Hungary will remain a democratic society, or slide into authoritarianism. Orban has certainly been making kissy-faces at Putin for some time. Just three weeks ago, the two met in Moscow, and Orban bragged about his homey:
“This is our 12th meeting,” Orbán said. “That’s rather rare. Those who were my fellow leaders then in the Union all have already gone.” Referencing their “past 13 years” working together, Orbán said: “The two of us have the longest memory of the European Union and Russia’s relationship.”
Russia wasn’t counting on Hungary turning against him.
Czech President Milos Zeman was enamored with Putin, leading to headlines like this one:
How Czech President Miloš Zeman Became Putin’s Man
Czech President Miloš Zeman has become the most influential Kremlin ally in Central Europe. He holds ceremonial powers as head of state, but his position also allows him to support Russian President Vladimir Putin extensively. In foreign policy, Zeman has often stood contrary to the Czech government, which generally defends the positions of the EU and NATO.
After Russia’s invasion of Crimea, Zeman was a rare world leader to visit Moscow in 2015, saying the vast was an ““expression of thankfulness that we in this country don’t have to speak German if we were obedient collaborators of Aryan descent.”
Well, today Czechia closed its airspace to Russian aircraft and promised to send additional weapons to the Ukrainian resistance.
The Czech Defense Ministry said it is immediately sending machine guns, submachine guns, assault rifles and pistols together with ammunition worth the equivalent of some $8.6 million [...]
The Czech Republic has already agreed to donate some 4,000 pieces of artillery shells worth the equivalent of $1.7 million to Ukraine.
Well, how about its puppet states, like Kazakhstan? Russia literally sent troops last month to quell mass protests at the behest of the country’s authoritarian leadership, as frustration at the nation’s oligarchs boiled over. Kazakhstan has one of the world’s largest deposits of oil, but that wealth hasn’t trickled down to the masses.
So when it was time for Putin to call in the favor, what did the Kazakhs answer?
Nope.
Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.
Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine.
At this point, the only countries that are actively backing Putin’s war are Belarus, which essentially occupied Russia territory at this point, along with the Latin American dictatorships of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Strange that they did so, since if Russia’s doctrine prevails, it would justify American efforts to meddle in their own affairs.
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, central Asian republics that were formerly part of the Soviet Union, and have a security partnership with Moscow, have all remained quiet thus far.
That’s slim pickings for Moscow. Turns out, the world really doesn’t want a return to the bipolar Cold War era. And every day, it becomes even more isolated. So much so, that they finally broke Germany’s long-standing, post-WWII prohibition on providing military aid to active war zone.
As I’ve written about since before the invasion, Putin’s aggression is now putting Finland and Sweden on the path of NATO membership. If his goal was to roll back NATO, his actions are accomplishing the exact opposite. Finland’s moves, in particular, have Russia foaming at the mouth.
That is Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, akin to our State Department, essentially threatening Finland “military repercussions” if it joins NATO. A similar warning was delivered to Sweden.
Finland, with its 830-mile border with Russia, has had decades of practice keeping aggressive Russians off its back, and responded with amazing diplomatic restraint.
“We don’t think that it calls for a military threat,” Haavisto said in an interview with the Finnish public broadcaster YLE. “Should Finland be NATO’s external border, it rather means that Russia would certainly take that into account in its own defense planning. I don’t see anything new as such” in the statement delivered by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, Haavisto said.
“We’ll pretend that’s not a threat, and find the most charitable explanation possible, tootles!”
Sweden was far less diplomatic in its response:
“I want to be extremely clear. It is Sweden that itself and independently decides on our security policy line,” Andersson said.
In other words, “fuck you, Russia.”
As a final diplomatic indignity, Ukraine was years away from meeting the requirements from European Union and NATO memberships. This war, however, might have the same effect as it did with Germany—change the rules.
Putin has just executed the Mother of Unintended Consequences, though a rational actor should’ve seen most of these coming.
