I am going to look the final three (applicable) Maine senate districts: SD 7, SD 26, and SD 34.
ME SD 7
ME SD 7 is located on the Gulf of Maine and is home to several communities such as Ellsworth, Blue Hill, and Southwest Harbor. Under the existing boundaries, SD 7 has been reliably blue at the presidential level, with Barack Obama carrying the district by 19 points, Hillary Clinton carrying it by a narrower but still fairly decent margin of about 12 points, and Joe Biden carrying it by about 17 points. However, the district has historically been friendlier to the GOP down-ballot, as the Republicans actually held this seat prior to 2018, with Republican Brian Langley winning it by about 10 points in 2014 and by about 11.5 points in 2016. Democrat Louis Luchini handily flipped the district in 2018, though, as he won the open seat by about 28 points. In 2020, prior incumbent Langley attempted to flip the seat back, but was unsuccessful, as Luchini was reelected by about 10 points, though it’s quite likely that Langley being a former incumbent did make the district closer than it would have been otherwise (as evidenced by the reduction in Luchini’s margin between 2018 and 2020). The 2022 redistricting has made SD 7 several points bluer, with the northeastern parts of the district removed and the new district now expanding further west. Under the new boundaries, Biden’s margin would be almost 23 points. However, it should be noted that Luchini recently resigned from the seat to accept a job in the U.S. Small Business Administration and a result, SD 7 will be subject to a special election in June, which will be held under the existing lines (unlike the November 2022 election). For the special election, both the Dems and Republicans have nominated strong candidates, with Langley running again on the Republican side and current state house representative Nicole Grohoski running on the Dem side. In particular, Grohoski strongly overperformed in her 2020 house race, as she won by over 10 points despite Donald Trump simultaneously carrying the district by a razor-thin margin. Special elections are often unpredictable due to the low-turnout nature. That said, it seems that the Dems should be favored to win the special, though a Republican upset is possible. To further complicate matters, there will also be a Green Party candidate on the ballot for the special, which could hurt the Dems here. For the November general election, I’m classifying the district as Likely Democrat, though this rating could perhaps change depending on the results of the June special. If Langley ends up winning the special, I could potentially see moving the district to “Lean Democrat”, while if Grohoski is able to easily hold the seat, I could see taking the district off the map entirely (moving it to “Safe Democrat”). Regardless, as noted above, the new district is more favorable to Dems, so even if the GOP does end up flipping the seat by some miracle in the special, it’s quite likely that the seat will flip back to the Dems in November.
ME SD 26
ME SD 26 is located towards the southern part of the state, just outside of Portland, and contains the community of Raymond. Under the existing boundaries, SD 26 has been a fairly swingy district at the presidential level, having gone from supporting Obama by about 5 points in 2012 to supporting Trump by 9 points in 2016 and by a razor-thin margin (less than a quarter of a percentage point) in 2020. However, at the State Senate level, Dems have easily held onto the seat, with Dem Bill Diamond winning the open seat by about 25 points in 2014 and easily winning reelection by nearly 24 points in 2016 and by over 21 points in 2020. (He did not have a Republican opponent in 2018.) The 2022 redistricting has made the district considerably bluer, with the western parts of the district removed, and the district now extending a bit further south to include more Portland suburbs, such as parts of Westbrook. Specifically, under the new boundaries, Biden would have carried the district by about 12 points. SD 26 is also open this cycle, as Diamond is term-limited. If Diamond were running again, it would be hard to imagine the district being at all competitive, even with the national environment likely skewed towards the GOP, given that he previously won by landslides under far less favorable boundaries. However, with no incumbent running, it’s conceivable to expect a competitive race, though the Dems definitely have the edge. I’m classifying SD 26 as Lean Democrat.
ME SD 34
ME SD 34 is located towards the southern end of the state, bordering New Hampshire on the west and the Gulf of Maine on the east. At the presidential level, the existing SD 34 has been a fairly competitive district, with Obama carrying it by a little more than 7 points in 2012, Clinton very narrowly carrying it by less than a percentage point, and Biden carrying it by about 8.5 points. At the State Senate level, the district has often been a bit more Republican leaning, with Republican incumbent Ronald Collins winning by about 10 to 11 points in 2014 and 2016 (though it should probably be noted that he only received about 46.5% of the vote in 2014, as there was a third-party candidate on the ballot who received 12.5% of the vote). In 2018, Collins was ineligible to run again due to term-limits, and Republican Robert Foley managed to narrowly hold onto the seat, winning by a little more than 3 points. However, in 2020, Foley opted not to run again, and Democrat Joseph Rafferty was able to flip the seat, winning by just under 4 points. Fortunately for Dems, redistricting has made SD 34 quite a bit bluer, with the Republican leaning areas in the northwestern part of the district, such as Lebanon, removed, and the district now extending further east, adding in some heavily Dem communities on the coast. In particular, Biden would have carried the district by nearly 17 points under the new boundaries. With more favorable boundaries, Rafferty should definitely have the edge this cycle, especially given that he also has the advantage of incumbency (unlike in 2020). However, the district should still likely be competitive, considering the somewhat ancestrally Republican nature of the region and the presumably favorable environment for the GOP. I’m classifying SD 34 as Lean Democrat.
Thanks to cnanalysis.com (for the 2022 pres results for both new and existing districts, and for providing a map of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the remaining statewide/presidential results of the existing districts), Ballotpedia (for list of candidates) and New York Times (for precinct-level data).
