A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era - and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system - but this is worth talking about separately a little later.
This has been a multi-pronged strategy that has many goals and fail safes. It is very high risk, but it is also very high reward. Putin is gambling on a ton of things happening (some of which have, some of which have not) which will be covered later. We are lucky that strategic planning by Putin for the invasion was terrible, because his geopolitical plan is actually quite well conceived.
Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians.
This is the equivalent of the “stab in the back” myth that post WWI German right wing lunatics (like Ludendorff and Hitler) believed. It took the Great Depression for these ideas to latch on enough for Hitler to gain power. The 2014 Russian oil crisis and the Covid-19 Pandemic possibly worked the same way for Putin. This event would be a similar idea for the KGB old guard to create a myth on.
If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land.
Remember that the roots of the Russian state run through Kyiv, NOT St. Petersburg or Moscow. There is a reason the meme below is going around, and that is because it is 100% historically accurate. Putin is appealing to his people with this history. To the hardliners, it feels like an infidel taking over Mecca in the Islamic world to them.
Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. After all, the need to solve it would always remain the main problem for Russia - for two key reasons. And the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia from Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them.
This is the chilling part. “The Ukrainian question” draws parallels immediately to the “Jewish question” asked by the Nazis during WWII. The “Jewish question” was that the Allied Powers through the Jewish people strived to cut Germany to her knees, and that they would do the same to Hitler. The Jews in the eyes of the Nazis were subhuman fifth columnists behind the global conspiracy to damage the Fatherland and prevent “Deutschland Uber Alles”.
Substitute Ukrainian for Jewish in this case and the conclusions are remarkably similar. Make of that what you will.
The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation - when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples. That is, either to abandon their history, agreeing with the insane versions that "only Ukraine is the real Russia," or to gnash one's teeth helplessly, remembering the times when "we lost Ukraine."
Pretzel logic here. “Ukraine is a front for anti-Russia” yet “we are the same people!” This doublethink is needed to assure themselves that secretly Ukraine wants to rejoin Russia and be one big happy family again, except for those nasty NATO and EU “Atlanticists” that have put their (note: Jewish) puppet in charge of a fake nation. Those that are allied with the ‘Atlanticists’ need to be liquidated so that true “Little Russian” Ukrainians can rejoin Mother Russia.
Putin WILL commit genocide. He has the thermobaric weapons. He has already used cluster bombs and vacuum bombs. He has those mobile crematoriums already lined up. The question will be if Putin escalates to chemical or biological weapons as well.
Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade - recoding, de-Russification of Russians and inciting Ukrainian Little Russians against Russians would gain momentum. And in the event of the consolidation of the full geopolitical and military control of the West over Ukraine, its return to Russia would become completely impossible - it would have to fight for it with the Atlantic bloc.
This part is true, but it ignores that Russia basically lost Ukraine because of the Holodomor way back in the 1930’s. Many across the globe consider it a genocide, and I tend to agree with them, whether Stalin intentionally did so or not. There is a reason that the Ukrainians welcomed the Nazis as liberators, only to find out that the Third Reich was eager to exterminate them as well.
After WWII, Ukraine was the part of the USSR that was ethnically cleansed the most as punishment, only being surpassed by the (much) larger Russia itself. If “we are one people” were true, none of the above would have happened in history.
Putin and his cronies accepted Ukraine existing at first because they thought that they could install a puppet state there, much like Belarus is a puppet state under Lukashenko. These dreams were dashed by what probably is the key event that precipitated this whole crisis…
The Orange Revolution (Ukrainian: Помаранчева революція, romanized: Pomarancheva revoliutsiia) was a series of protests and political events that took place in Ukraine from late November 2004 to January 2005, in the immediate aftermath of the run-off vote of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, which was claimed to be marred by massive corruption, voter intimidation and electoral fraud. Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, was the focal point of the movement's campaign of civil resistance, with thousands of protesters demonstrating daily.[6] Nationwide,[7] the revolution was highlighted by a series of acts of civil disobedience, sit-ins, and general strikes organized by the opposition movement.
The protests were prompted by reports from several domestic and foreign election monitors as well as the widespread public perception that the results of the run-off vote of 21 November 2004 between leading candidates Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych were rigged by the authorities in favour of the latter.[8] The nationwide protests succeeded when the results of the original run-off were annulled, and a revote was ordered by Ukraine's Supreme Court for 26 December 2004. Under intense scrutiny by domestic and international observers, the second run-off was declared to be "free and fair". The final results showed a clear victory for Yushchenko, who received about 52% of the vote, compared to Yanukovych's 45%. Yushchenko was declared the official winner and with his inauguration on 23 January 2005 in Kyiv, the Orange Revolution ended. In the following years, the Orange Revolution had a negative connotation among pro-government circles in Belarus and Russia.[9][10][11][12]
The color revolutions in next door neighbors freaked Putin out tremendously. The event above came on the heels of the Rose Revolution in Georgia (which Putin invaded as well in 2008, likely as a test run for the big invasion this year) and was followed by the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. Putin has always suspected that the CIA or MI6 was behind each of these events in an effort to destabilize him. This is what fuels his paranoia about the Western World — that he will be the next target of a color revolution.
And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era - it concerns Russia's relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage - the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe. And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise. Did someone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kyiv? That the Russians will forever be a divided people? And at the same time when Europe is uniting, when the German and French elites are trying to seize control of European integration from the Anglo-Saxons and assemble a united Europe?
Basically, Putin thinks that he has fractured the European Union and the West enough that they are impotent in the face of “Greater Russia” being reassembled. This is why he pushed for Brexit which drove a wedge between the UK and the rest of the Eurozone. This is why he has financed fringe parties on both the right and the left in nation after nation in the Eurozone. His goal was to plant the seeds of the downfall of the West by pushing AfD and Die Linke in Germany, Le Pen and Melenchon in France, Brexit in the UK, and similar movements in other nations. Note that in the “-exit” debates, much of the same dialogue above comes up again and again. I bet it is amplified by Russian social media bots and Russian agents in the target countries!
Forgetting that the unification of Europe became possible only thanks to the unification of Germany, which took place according to the good Russian (albeit not very smart) will. To swipe after that also on Russian lands is not even the height of ingratitude, but of geopolitical stupidity. The West as a whole, and even more so Europe in particular, did not have the strength to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and even more so to take Ukraine for itself. In order not to understand this, one had to be just geopolitical fools.
We should thank the USSR for the EU, because they “graciously” allowed Germany to reunite. But the West got greedy, and went after the Eastern Bloc as well — according to Putin. After they gave Germany back, we should have never breached the Iron Curtain according to his logic.
It is a perverse adaptation of the Monroe Doctrine in action — not taking into account that its former satellites DECIDED to look to the West because the economy sucked after the breakup of the USSR.
More precisely, there was only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is, the Russian Federation. But the fact that it did not work should have been clear twenty years ago. And already fifteen years ago, after Putin's Munich speech, even the deaf could hear - Russia is returning.
We survived the 1998 crisis. We survived the Great Recession. We survived the 2014 oil crisis. We will survive this as well. This is the Munich Speech referenced, which basically is a screed against the US being the policeman of the world (sound familiar?) and against the US government missile shield proposed by Bush. In the mind of Putin, he was a staunch ally in the War on Terror after 9/11 (likely to get intel and supplies to deal with Chechnya) only to have the US foment the color revolutions and expand eastward similarly to the moves that led to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Now the West is trying to punish Russia for the fact that it returned, for not justifying its plans to profit at its expense, for not allowing the expansion of the western space to the east. Seeking to punish us, the West thinks that relations with it are of vital importance to us. But this has not been the case for a long time - the world has changed, and this is well understood not only by Europeans, but also by the Anglo-Saxons who rule the West.
Pax Americana is dead, and it died in Afghanistan and Iraq. After the West “betrayed” Russia as outlined above, Putin has not been a friend to the West and no amount of diplomacy has changed that. Sure, Putin went through the motions to deceive the West, but the real goal is still to fracture it. Obama and Hillary understood this, and that is why Clinton was such a threat to Putin. Measures needed to be taken.
No amount of Western pressure on Russia will lead to anything. There will be losses from the sublimation of confrontation on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically. But for the West itself, an increase in the degree of confrontation incurs huge costs - and the main ones are not at all economic.
Translation: We are prepared for the sanctions because my finger is on the trigger of the nuclear briefcase and the West would not DARE intervene and risk starting World War III, which would lead to MAD. We’ve also been preparing for this eventuality, and will likely use our Mafia connections, secret Chinese support, ransomware, and cryptocurrency to stay afloat militarily. This is a great risk for Putin, because it means throwing his oligarchs and the people at large under the bus.
“But for the West itself, an increase in the degree of confrontation incurs huge costs - and the main ones are not at all economic.”
This is the most chilling line of the whole manifesto — and it hints that he is ready to hurt us MUCH more than economically. We’re at 2-5 seconds to midnight on the Doomsday Clock, people.
Europe, as part of the West, wanted autonomy - the German project of European integration does not make strategic sense while maintaining the Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World. Yes, and it cannot be successful, because the Anglo-Saxons need a controlled Europe. But Europe needs autonomy for another reason as well — in case the States go into self-isolation (as a result of growing internal conflicts and contradictions) or focus on the Pacific region, where the geopolitical center of gravity is moving. But the confrontation with Russia, into which the Anglo-Saxons are dragging Europe, deprives the Europeans of even the chance of independence, not to mention the fact that they are trying to force a break with China in the same way on Europe.
Translation: “I am going to subvert every Western nation by magnifying the internal conflicts and contradictions. I am going to support Trump as President in 2016, because Russians are the only people willing to lend him money and he owes us and is a Russian asset. I am also going to support leftists like Jill Stein to fracture the US coalition that can stop me. If he wins, we get what we want. If he loses, the amount of division he can create as a chaos agent will distract the US from us. Besides, China is also being bellicose and is a much larger threat than we are. Pinky promise!”
Note that Putin’s Puppet has repeated many of the claims that this screed contained. All of the disinformation and outright conspiracy theory lies were meant to divide opinion in the West about Ukraine. The Trump phone call “I Want You to Do Us a Favor” was meant to extort Ukraine, implicate Biden in wrongdoing to set up a Clinton-like smear machine, AND to sow more dissension which resulted in the first impeachment in one fell swoop. Other Republicans likely knew about these efforts as well in advance. Was this the reason behind the July 4th meeting at the Kremlin that has never been explained?
“Brexit served the same purpose for the UK, which is why I heavily funded it to make it pass by a narrow margin. It had the added effect of making traditional NATO allies look at one another as sources of discord instead of at me. Meanwhile, I will continue to supply you with my oil and natural gas, which I can cut off at any time. Oh, and I will have a Sudetenland moment (annexation of Crimea) to prove your impotence and cause even more discord.”
If now the Atlanticists are happy that the "Russian threat" will unite the Western bloc, then in Berlin and Paris they cannot fail to understand that, having lost hope for autonomy, the European project will simply collapse in the medium term. That is why independent-minded Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders - realizing that it will turn into a corral for Europe. Whose century (more precisely, half a millennium) of global leadership is over in any case - but various options for its future are still possible.
This is probably the densest part for me to decipher, but I think Putin has expected that his invasion will unite the West initially. However, he is counting on a few things happening that will eventually fracture this cry to arms.
In his mind, it is likely:
- He has already through his troll farm and courting of fringe groups the means to eventually cause dissension in each country when the war takes too long. If the war escalates and troops are sent to counter him, these groups will be LOUDLY anti-interventionist.
- If he turns on the hackers (likely farmed out to North Korea (think WannaCry) or Russian criminal elements (think Petya) for plausible deniability) on critical systems, he can make Texas in winter 2021 look tame which will spread discord.
- He can turn off the natural gas spigot and make next winter miserable for Europe, because Germany and France and the other nations are too reliant on him for heating oil. Again, discord will spread.
- He still has that finger on the nuclear button.
Because the construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality - the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well - this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's return of its historical space and its place in the world.
It’s okay that Ukraine has rallied the West to their side, because that won’t matter in the end. Those that have been colonized by Europe or bombed by America will not rally to their side in his thinking. While these nations won’t actively support Russia, they are quite content to sit on the sidelines.
China has Putin AND the US by the short hairs. China is the only large source of trade and financing remaining to Russia. China also is the main industrial supplier to the West. It is likely that China will be publicly neutral and secretly support Russia with funds, hackers from North Korea, and trade. For a hefty price. Any attempt by the West to interdict that means China shuts down the world economy and that leads to World War III. Any attempt by Russia to interdict trade from China to the West meets the same fate as China will freeze Russia out and publicly side with the West.
India has a Pakistan problem. Pakistan has an India problem. Neither nation will publicly support Russia or the West, because the opposite will support the other side. Both nations have a huge flashpoint in Jammu and Kashmir and nuclear weapons. World War III could begin this way.
Latin America on both the right and the left isn’t going to support the West because America has meddled in their affairs one too many times. Brazil will remain publicly neutral, especially since Bolsonaro is yet another chaos agent Putin can exploit (either by deposing him or supporting him) based upon circumstances. In Mexico, Lopez Obrador is dealing with a country with corruption as high as Putin, which can easily be exploited. Chile is dealing with the aftermath of a polarizing election and writing a new constitution. Argentina has been dealing with a financial crisis and has a flashpoint with the West over the Falkland Islands. No one else in Latin America is strong enough to make a difference.
The Islamic world will be very hesitant to take sides as well. Anti-West feeling runs extremely strong due to the War on Terror and US dominance and support for Israel. Russia meddling in Syria is also known about (quite a parallel to the Spanish Civil War in which the Nazis supported Franco and the West and the USSR supported the government). They are likely ecstatic about this conflict because the price of oil will go through the roof. The reason Israel has not publicly gone against Russia is likely due to Biden quietly asking them for support through hacking and intelligence (remember Stuxnet) and to publicly shut up. Biden doesn’t want to draw the Islamic world closer to Putin because of Israel. If Bibi were still in charge, we’d be fucked as he is a chaos agent Putin would be only too happy to exploit.
Africa is too deeply embedded in China’s “belt and road” initiative to publicly side with either the West or Russia in this conflict without consulting China first. Besides, the Scramble for Africa by Europe has definitely left lingering scars on the continent that can be exploited by Putin. The USSR also supported enough corrupt leftist governments and insurgencies to not be trusted as well.
China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only challenged the West, it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centers of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) - but not on its terms and not according to its rules.