Over the last two years, I’ve written over 640 articles articles about COVID-19. In the last week, I’ve written about nothing but the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So, when my wife asked me a question that combines COVID-19 and the situation in Ukraine, it seems I should have had a ready answer. But I don’t.
The question is this: How has the pandemic affected Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
It’s a good question. Officially, Russia has lost 350,000 people to the COVID-19 pandemic. On a deaths per population basis, that places it very close to the rate of loss in the U.S. However, there has long been a general assumption that Russia is greatly underreporting COVID-19 related deaths. Studies have suggested that Russia is far higher than anything they’ve reported. Something on the order of at least four times as high. If accurate, that would move the actual rate of deaths in Russia from something on the order of 2,500 per million, to 10,000 per million — the highest rate on the planet. Maybe that’s what Russian doctors wanted to tell the world, before they mysteriously developed a problem with windows.
If the studies are close to accurate, that’s one person out of every 100 in Russia dead from COVID-19. Top that off with the knowledge that military bases, throughout history, have been well known as locations where disease spreads more readily. Bring together people from across a large area, force them into tight confines, place them under stress … out pops a higher rate of disease and death.
Did Russia go into this war with 1 out of 100 soldiers — and 1 out of 100 commanders — dead from COVID-19? Was it more? Of the rest, how many were left with long COVID symptoms? How many are suffering from heart problems, breathing problems, fatigue problems? How many Russian soldiers and commanders are suffering from brain fog?
The idea that people around him could have been dropping like flies helps to explain why a sweaty, nervous Putin now sits at the other end of a 40’ table, unwilling to get anywhere close to members of his cabinet. Of course, Putin might have other reasons for not wanting to be close to anyone else.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 3:55:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Since the first day of the war, Mariupol, located on the Sea of Azov, very near Russia, has been under constant threat. There have been overland assaults. Amphibious assaults. Attempts to come at the city from east and west simultaneously. But on Tuesday, it seemed the city had been finally encircled, and the attack on Wednesday is fierce.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 4:01:47 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The level of combat in Mariupol not seems to match the pounding that Kharkiv has been taking. Mariupol’s location in the extreme southeast of Ukraine makes it extremely vulnerable. They’ve held out this long, but it’s not clear that they can withstand the punishment much longer.
On Monday, Ukrainian forces that were in danger of being encircled in Kherson, but those forces were able to withdraw. Russian forces moved into Kherson, only to be attacked on Tuesday night by Ukrainian forces under cover of darkness — which is likely to become a repeating pattern. But for the forces inside Mariupol, there may be no retreat.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 4:05:09 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
As has been seen in Kharkiv and in suburbs around Kyiv, Russian forces in Mariupol are resorting to the same tactics used in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria — the purposeful destruction of civilian areas to crush resistance and create mass causalities.
And the voices speaking from inside the maelstrom are heartbreaking.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 4:33:45 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Multiple sites have been showing this footage, reportedly taken on the outskirts of Energodar in south central Ukraine. The effort to block roads here reflects the bravery that Ukrainian citizens have demonstrated elsewhere, and the use of rocks, vehicles, and other material to form barriers is a tactic that military experts have been recommending for adoption across Ukraine. With “mud season” beginning, Russian heavy vehicles are largely limited to traveling along highways. If those highways are blocked, Russian forces need to reroute or take time to clear the way. Either of these creates more opportunity for ambushing troops stretched out along the road.
However, in the case of Energodar, it’s not clear how dire the situation may be. The town is located along the Dnieper River south of Kyiv, but is not along a main route to Kyiv or other major cities. Unless Russia is out to specifically grab the power plant (which could be the case) there is little reason to divert forces in this direction.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 4:53:52 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Reports indicate that 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 "Stinger" surface-to-air missiles from Germany have been handed over to Ukrainian forces. This level of direct military aid is an unprecedented move by the German government.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 4:59:58 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russia has admitted to 498 soldiers killed, 1597 wounded in Ukraine. This if far below the numbers of Russian soldiers that Ukrainian authorities are claiming to stopped. How close either of these numbers is to accurate is anyone’s guess. However, the fact that Russia is admitting to even this level of casualties is surprising. This si a hugely higher rate than Russian forces suffered in Chechnya.