It’s night again in Ukraine. Over the last seven days, night have sometimes been strangely quiet. That’s because invading Russian forces do not seem to be equipped with the night vision equipment necessary for effective night fighting. Most of the Russian forces captured — with the exception of some Chechen troops — don’t even seem to have helmets that are designed to work with this gear.
In these situations, the nights become a good time for small, partisan units to move around, engage in small actions, and commit acts of sabotage against the invaders. After all, many the Ukrainian soldiers are operating in their own home towns. These are streets, and alleys, and woods that they know intimately. They are alien ground for the Russians trying to hold positions in the Kyiv suburbs, or in the center of Kherson.
Kherson is a good example of what this means. After days of hard fighting, Russian forces moved into the city on Tuesday morning and deployed almost without firing a shot. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces, which had been in danger of being encircled, withdrew to the west and regrouped closer to Mykolaiv. Throughout the day, Russian soldiers could be seen moving into government buildings, creating checkpoints on city streets, and fighting a losing battle with a door. All the while, there was no opposition in sight.
But on Tuesday night, Kherson crackled with small arms fire as Russian forces found themselves under attack by Ukrainians working on familiar terrain. It’s a pattern that can be expected to repeat on Wednesday night. And in other towns. And on many nights to follow.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 7:12:14 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Mykolaiv is another 40 miles beyond Kherson. So far, Russian forces have had difficulty operating this far from the border with either Russia or Belarus and — even though Kherson has been occupied — it’s not clear they can reach this location by road to support any airborne action. Which would seem to make this a waste of men and machines.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 7:18:27 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
More talks between Ukraine and Russia appear to be on for Thursday. A ceasefire is said to be on the table. However, Russia still seems to be demanding conditions that amount to Ukrainian forces laying down their arms before they will stop their attacks. Which makes this more a demand for surrender than a negotiated ceasefire.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 7:28:04 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
More Russian equipment moving west by train. This is at Vologda, about 500 miles east of Ukraine. With essentially all the hardware Russia originally deployed around Ukraine no in-country, Russia is apparently shifting armor from other areas.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 8:12:25 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ukrainian defense forces have been warning for days that Russia is planning an extensive disinformation campaign, and that taking down broadcast centers is part of that plan. Now they’re getting specific about one of the possible threats.
Wednesday, Mar 2, 2022 · 9:08:14 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
There was a good deal of concern in the last hour when a Romanian MiG-21 went missing, and then a helicopter sent to search for the downed plane also went missing. Reports now indicate that both hit the water in the Black Sea, but suspicions are that bad weather brought both down.
MiG-21s are not anyone’s description of a new plane. Production started in 1959, so they are one me old.