The war is not a wash, but data still arrives, however flawed or spun. The claim is that the Russians are “regrouping and reassessing”. Ukrainian air defense is still operating. More materiel is coming into Ukraine. Russia still has plenty of combat power even as more intense bombardment occurs. It becomes clearer that rank and file Russian troops didn’t think they’d be welcomed as оккупанты (occupiers). However, the Putin plan suggests ground combat would be concluded on 5 March which now seems less likely even with weapons worthy of war crimes.
The Soviets lost 13,000 soldiers in Afghanistan during their decade-long occupation . Russia has today admitted the loss of 500 soldiers in less than a week in Ukraine. The US lost almost 3,000 in two decades in Afghanistan.
Russian forces resumed offensive operations in support of their envelopment of Kyiv on March 2 but made few territorial advances. Russian forces resumed offensive operations on both axes of advance toward Kyiv after largely pausing for 72 hours to reinforce and resupply their troops north and west of Kyiv. Russian operations to envelop Kyiv are Moscow’s main effort. Russian troops are also undertaking three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. The three supporting operations were active in the last 24 hours; Russian forces likely captured Kherson and began a bombardment of critical civilian infrastructure in Mariupol in a likely effort to force the city to surrender while making few territorial gains in Kharkiv.
The Russian attack on Kyiv likely consists of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and a supporting effort along the axes from Chernihiv and Sumy to encircle it from the east. The long Russian column of combat and logistics vehicles observed north of Kyiv in the last 48 hours is likely now supporting attacks directly into the city from positions Russian forces maintain in Kyiv’s northwestern outskirts. However, Russian forces are more likely to prioritize the envelopment/encirclement in the coming days, rather than a direct assault into the city.
Russian forces resumed frontal assaults on Kharkiv on March 2 and continued using area-attack weapons, dramatically increasing the damage to civilian infrastructure and civilian casualties. Russian ground forces appear to be conducting another frontal assault on Kharkiv from the northeast rather than enveloping the city and will likely face protracted Ukrainian resistance.
www.understandingwar.org/...
UK prime minister Boris Johnson has said that he believes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could see Vladimir Putin attempt to “Grozny-fy” Kyiv.
Speaking to ITV News while on a visit to Estonia as a 40-mile long convoy of Russian tanks headed towards the Ukrainian capital preparing to lay siege to it, Mr Johnson said of his Kremlin counterpart: “I think that he’s gone into a cul-de-sac and it’s very difficult for him to back out, and that’s the problem we’ve got.
“And if you’re sitting where he is, his only instinct is going to be to double down and to try and ‘Grozny-fy’ Kyiv, if you know what I mean. And to reduce it to rubble, and I think that that would be an unalterable moral humanitarian catastrophe and I hope he doesn’t do that.
[...]
While many might not see what Mr Johnson means, he was in fact alluding to Mr Putin’s order that the city of Grozny, capital of Chechnya, be completely destroyed during the Second Chechen War of 1999-2000.
www.independent.co.uk/...
Below are some of the key steps Moscow has taken.
CENTRAL BANK MOVES
Russia's central bank has more than doubled its main lending rate to 20% and provided extra liquidity to banks. It intervened on the foreign currency market to support the rouble, before sanctions limited its ability to do so. read more
CONVERSION ORDER
A decree by President Vladimir Putin ordered exporting companies, which include some of the world's biggest energy producers, to sell 80% of their foreign currency revenues to buttress the rouble. read more
CURBING ASSET SALES
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said Russia would temporarily stop foreign investors from selling Russian assets to ensure they take a considered decision, not one driven by political pressure, but did not elaborate. read more
RAINY-DAY FUND
Russia will use money from a rainy-day fund to limit borrowing as sanctions made it more costly, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. The National Wealth Fund stood at $175 billion as of Feb. 1. read more
TAX RELIEF, TECH SUPPORT
Prime Minister Mishustin said Russia would provide additional support to technology companies and may tweak tax arrangements for businesses and households affected by sanctions.
AIRSPACE CLOSURES
Russia has banned airlines from countries including Britain, Bulgaria, Poland and the Czech Republic from its airspace after similar moves by those countries.
www.reuters.com/...
What the disinformation battle now looks like:
Pro-Kremlin semantics
|
Debunk
|
“Self-defence of Russia” |
Attack and invasion of a sovereign state which does not pose any threat |
“Limited military operation” |
All-out attack. Missile strikes, air and land invasion. Civilian targets, cities and infrastructure included. Large urban bombardments. |
“No occupation” |
Intent to occupy as much as possible, as long as necessary. Place Ukraine under Moscow’s control. Indefinitely. |
“De-nazification of Ukraine” |
Stalinist-type repression of elected, legitimate officials of a sovereign country. |
“Holding election for a new government” |
Gun-point fake-democracy to place Kremlin-loyal puppets in power. |
“Negotiations” |
Maximalist demands while bombings of civilians continue. Trying to buy time to regroup, refuel and reload the war machine which experienced resistance in advancing. |
Only Russians suffered from the Nazi occupation during 2 WW |
With Kremlin’s use of “Nazi”, it is alleged that only Russians suffered during the Second World War. This is false. In relation to size, Ukraine and the Ukrainian nation was suffering the most during the Nazi occupation. More Ukrainians died fighting the Nazis than fighting for Hitler. |
Genocide is committed by Zelensky and Kyiv leaders against Donbas / Russian speakers |
The claims of genocide made by Putin, Lavrov and other Russian leaders are absolutely unacceptable and misuse the word genocide itself. Genocide: United Nations definition – In the UN Convention, genocide means the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such”. There is nothing to suggest that the modern Ukrainian state would want to destroy the part of its population being Russian speaker. The laws provide for the use of Russian language, culture and traditions in daily life. Secondly, president Zelenskyy and the government recognise this group. (see below under “Russian language and culture is prohibited by Kyiv”)There is no evidence that Russian-speaking or ethnic Russian residents in eastern Ukraine face genocide. This has been confirmed in reports published by the Council of Europe, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, and the OSCE. It is an infamous Putin lie to postulate genocide. Further, it is an insult to the millions of victims in earlier wars. |
Humanitarian and financial blockade of Donbass made by Kyiv |
Wrong. For years, large groups of the population in Donbas have crossing regularly into Kyiv-controlled areas for business, shopping and collecting their Ukrainian pensions. Crossing had been kept open for this and other reasons. |
Russian language and culture are prohibited by Kyiv |
Wrong. Ukraine passed a law ensuring the functioning of the Ukrainian language as a state language in 2019, but this legislation only regulates the use of Ukrainian in public spheres. Russian and other languages of national minorities can be freely used in private communication, in book publishing, in the press, radio, television, education, and the service sector. The law also allows the use of other languages in the healthcare system and law enforcement. See more disinformation cases here. |
Minsk Agreements: Kyiv and its Western patrons destroyed it |
The Kremlin tries to hide the fact that Russia is party to the Minsk agreement. By recognising DNR/LNR, Moscow de facto rejected the Minsk agreement. Nevertheless, Ukraine has passed legislation on special status and amnesty (2014), and prepared draft legislation on local elections (2014). Ukraine adopted constitutional amendments to provide more autonomy to the territories currently outside its control (2015). See Myth #6 here |
Russia is not to occupy Ukraine and it is a limited operation to demilitarise and de-nazification of Ukraine |
The biggest lie of them all. Putin’s king-pin ridiculous and grotesque lie is pronounced while a full-scale air, land and navy attack is ongoing. Bombardment of civilian targets and several other violations of the Geneva Conventions. |
Kosovo conflict: NATO bombed Belgrade deliberately targeting civilians |
Another Putin and Lavrov favorite trying to make a parallel between Milosevic’s war of killing and ethnic cleansing and the conflict in Donbas. Kosovo was facing the abyss with more than 900.000 people; half Kosovo’s population killed, displaced or driven in refuge. The responsibility to protect was clear. Totally unlike in Donbas. |
After liberation from militarization and neo-Nazism, Russia want to give Ukrainians the chance to determine their own future, without external influence. |
Since 2013-2014 Euromaidan protests, the pro-Kremlin media have falsely claimed that Ukraine was controlled from the outside. There are over 100 examples of similar disinformation claims in the EUvsDisinfo database. Such claims have no factual basis. In fact, “liberation from neo-Nazism” is euphemism for Moscow wanting to execute large scale suppression of political opponents; like Stalinist-type repression. “Elections to determine own future: euphemism for gun-point fake democracy – just like in Crimea in 2014 where Russian armed forces drove through a mock referendum which no international body recognise. See our short debunk here |
The West sabotaged any agreements on Russian proposals for security guarantees. |
Putin resorted to war, not diplomacy. The Russian demands put forward in December 2021 in so-called draft ‘treaties’ between Russia and US and NATO respectively were designed to be rejected so Russia could play the role of martyr. In essence, the demands called for rolling back the situation in Europe to before 1997; US leaving large parts of Europe; several NATO members de facto demilitarise and indefinitely restricting free countries right to decide own policy. This quasi-diplomacy, which did not seek compromise and solutions, was in fact a smoke-screen and part of a psychological operation to confuse, distract and split the West. Meanwhile, Russian forces were being massed and prepared for invasion. The West called out Putin’s bluff by sharing intelligence of offensive plans with the public. |
Budapest memorandum [1994] is not relevant any more |
The Kremlin avoids the central issue: Ukraine scrapped its nuclear weapons and in exchange, the leaders of the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest memorandum with guarantees on the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. See disinfo cases debunked here |