There are four axes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: Kyiv/north, Kharkiv/Sumi/northeast, Donbas/east, and Crimea/Kherson south. Yesterday, we took a close look to what was happening in Kyiv and Donbas region. That northeast front is dead in the water, not much happening. That leaves the south, where Ukraine is mounting a serious effort to liberate Russian-held Kherson.
Weeks-old captured Russian plans publicly released by Ukrainian intelligence plans tell us flat-out Russia’s plan for the region:
On the SE side of Mykolaiv. the plan apparently was for 3 VDV BTGs to lead the advance into the city, with 20th GMRD in the rear. Note the heavy concentration of fires units around Pravdyne [...]
The north side of Mykolaiv was a bit harder to make out, it appears as if we have at least 4 BTGs depicted on this side from the 34th and 205th MRBs. District subordinate 227th Artillery and 10th Spetsnaz are to the rear, there's more units to the north I can't make out.
A BTG has 600-800 soldiers, but as I’ve already written, only 100-200 of them are actually mounted infantry available for an assault. Seven BTGs would, generously, provide around 1,000 soldiers and 70 tanks for an assault on a city of nearly half a million. It’s the same story time and time again—Russia under-resourced all its axes of attack. Yes, there was a ton of artillery (“fires”), and not sure what Spetsnaz (special forces) was doing in the rear, but in the end, this was never going to punch through. So it’s no wonder that these units have been decimated, allowing Ukraine to go on the counter-attack.
Here’s March 17:
Here’s March 20:
The orange signifies “Russia probably has it but now we’re not so sure”
We’ve been tracking that southern front carefully since March 17, when Ukraine dislodged Russian forces along a 75 kilometer-swatch of land, ending Russia’s designs on the strategic port city of Odesa. Having given up on Mykolaiv, Russian forces tried to find another crossing of the Southern Bug river further north, but got stomped at the gates of Voznesenks (that top-left arrow). In the subsequent days, Russian forces got pushed all the way down to the town of Posad-Pokroyskote, on the road down to Kherson. Just as importantly, those upward thrusts toward Kryvyi Rih (I did it! I spelled it without looking!) were all halted.
Since then, it’s been hard to ascertain just exactly what’s being going on, who controlled what, and what Ukraine hopes to accomplish. Was it enough to simply push Russian artillery out of range of Mykolaiv, giving the city a well-deserved breather, or was Kherson the actual goal? Well, thanks to CNN, now we know, as they have an embedded journalist with Ukrainian forces in the region.
In short, Ukraine has designs on both Kherson’s airfield, and Kherson itself. It’s well worth watching the report.
Kherson’s airport has seemingly been emptied out by Russian forces, after Ukrainian artillery wrecked at least 15 helicopters last week (on the ground video here). Of course, there’s nothing stopping Russia from returning the favor if Ukraine occupies the airport, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can neutralize Russian artillery—either with counter-artillery (we see Ukrainian artillery in action in the CNN report above), sabotage by local territorial defense forces in Kherson, the arrival of American Switchblade suicide drones, or other drone attacks.
While a local resident was assassinated yesterday for collaborating with the Russians, we haven’t heard much about internal resistance since the first few days of occupation. Kherson residents have been content to stage daily protests, like this one yesterday blocking a Russian truck and forcing it to turn around. However, that protest ended in tragedy as Russian occupiers, their patience running thin, opened fire (graphic video). Early reports stated that four people were wounded.
Russian occupiers have every reason to be on edge. They likely hear Ukrainian artillery getting closer, they’re getting reports about the nearing enemy. And the locals have made it very clear that they want them gone. There are two ways this will end—either Russians die in street-to-street fighting against the entirety of Kherson, or they surrender to the inevitable and live. This isn’t their fight.
In the CNN report above, a Ukrainian soldier claims Russian troops are afraid to retreat—anyone falling back gets shot. A “Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs” died around Mariupol a couple of days ago. A lot of us chuckled at Russia’s ability to get a high-ranking naval officer killed on land. But a closer look at that title actually paints a far more nefarious picture.
Key responsibilities are the management of propaganda and counterpropaganda, patriotic education, and psychological support for the armed forces
OMG. This was a guy in charge of other guys whose job it is to shoot battlefield deserters and anyone retreating. I’m going to guess he got fragged. Why else would a high-ranking naval officer be anywhere siege fighting? So if these ghouls are really in Kherson, and why wouldn’t they be, Russian rank-and-file troops may need to clean some house internally before they can surrender. Whatever minimizes the bloodshed, let’s hope that’s what happens.
If you’re interested in seeing videos of shredded Russian equipment in this region, I’ve got some for you here, here, here, here, here, and this one, which claims the Ukrainian Air Force is operating in the area.
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 12:43:56 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The Ukrainian counter offensive is real, and it seems to have caught Russian forces flat footed in several areas. Standing back and pounding civilian areas with artillery is their plan, but Ukraine isn’t allowing Russia to avoid a military vs. military confrontation.
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 12:47:14 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Makariv is almost directly west of Kyiv. It’s further from the city than the NW suburbs of Irpin and Bucha. It’s capture seems to reflect maps on Saturday that showed Ukrainian forces pressing Russian troops near Kyiv from both east and west.
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 12:56:45 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has been sentenced to 9 years in prison on charges of “fraud” and contempt of court. Navalny has been jailed since he returned to Russia from Berlin in Feb. 2021. Both Navalny and his anti-corruption organization have been added to the Russian registry of “extremist and terrorists.”
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 1:03:09 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
It’s not clear exactly how this would help Russia get around sanctions. Russia could send North Korea food. North Korea could send Russia tips on managing an isolationist kingdom, along with the names of some black market transports willing to keep Putin in luxury goods while everyone else lines up for bread.
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 1:18:30 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The Ukrainian government has accused Moscow of illegally deporting children from both the Donbas and from Mariupol. These reports are reliable enough that they are now being echoed by the U.S. embassy in Ukraine, which names them as mass “kidnapping.”
Reports on Saturday has thousands of people in and around Mariupol forced onto buses and taken to Russia. How many of those were children isn’t clear.
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 1:36:57 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
European Union appears unlikely to impose an embargo, or even stiffer sanctions, on Russian oil and gas. The vocal front against this is Hungary, where Orban is claiming that the sanctions would “hurt Hungary worse than Russia.” More quietly, Germany is also making it clear that it doesn’t support restrictions on oil and gas exports from Russia.
Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022 · 2:15:35 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Severdonetsk is within 40 miles of Luhansk and in the area that many maps have suggested Russia has controlled from the first days of the war. That they’re shelling a hospital in Severdonetsk is a horror, but it’s also an example of just how incomplete Russia’s control is even in areas barely outside of the territory under their control at the outset of the invasion.