The next weeks trace a crucial moment where opportunistic counter-attacks could change the paths to victory. The attack on Russian ships at Berdyansk resulted in major damage using missiles and drones. Mariupol has not yet surrendered. Casualties are still happening even as displacing population centers also continues. Chemical weapons threats remain problematic even as peace talks continue along with urban bombardment.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces entered central Mariupol on March 24 and continued to take ground across the city. Local Ukrainian authorities left the city in order to better coordinate regional operations amid the deteriorating situation in Mariupol itself.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a successful attack on Russian ships docked at the occupied port of Berdyansk, likely sinking a landing ship and damaging or sinking another. Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to inflict serious damage on Berdyansk may disrupt Russian forces from renewing attempts to reinforce operations in Mariupol and around Kherson by sea.
- Ukrainian forces did not retake any territory in continuing counterattacks northwest of Kyiv but forced Russian troops onto the defensive.
- Ukrainian forces repelled renewed Russian attempts to advance toward Brovary from the northeast and complete the encirclement of Chernihiv.
- Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv and struck a humanitarian aid delivery point, killing six and wounding 15.
- Russian forces secured several minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the last 24 hours.
Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:
- Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
- Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
- Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts;
- Supporting effort 2—Mariupol; and
- Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances northward and westward.
Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis are aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east.
Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro
Ukrainian forces did not conduct any new counterattacks or secure additional terrain northwest of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. The Kyiv Oblast civilian administration reported at 6:00 am local time on March 24 that fighting was ongoing along the Zhytomyr highway, in Irpin, and in Hostomel—predominantly on the southernmost advances of Russian forces attempting to envelop Kyiv from the west.[6] Social media users depicted heavy fighting and widespread Russian shelling of civilian infrastructure in Irpin on March 24.[7] Kyiv authorities additionally reported Russian forces in Bucha and Nemishevska (just northwest of ongoing fighting in Irpin) constructed new trench lines in the past 24 hours, likely to defend against future Ukrainian counterattacks.[8] Russian forces continued to shell civilian areas under Ukrainian control.[9]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Ukrainian soldiers have forced Russian invaders back from the east side of Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Russians to the northwest of the city have begun digging defensive positions, a senior defense official said yesterday.
The Russians do appear to be stepping up operations in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, the official said.
Kyiv is still in danger, but the fighting there has changed. "The Russians are about 15 to 20 kilometers away from city center. So, no movement," the official said.
But the Russians are digging in and establishing defensive positions, which is a change. "They're actually not trying to advance right now. They're taking more defensive positions," the official said.
To the east of the capital, Ukrainian forces were able to push the Russians back to about 55 kilometers east and northeast of Kyiv. Tuesday, the Russian forces were about 20 to 30 kilometers away from the city.
In the Donbass region, "we still believe that the Russians are trying to basically cut it off and, therefore, pin down Ukrainian forces," he said. The idea is the Russians will move south and north out of Mariupol to isolate Ukrainian forces fighting in the region. "What I would say is that this is the area which has become much more active for Russian forces … they have applied a lot more energy in the area," the official said.
Russian forces are prioritizing eastern Ukraine even as forces around Kyiv start to dig in.
Mariupol is contested with the Russians bombarding the city with artillery and other long-range fires. The official said there are Russian forces inside the city, but the Ukrainians continue to fight very hard for Mariupol.
www.defense.gov/...
Oh, and a Ukrainian insurgency is not just some academic game of 'what if?' The groundwork for such a contingency has been laid domestically and internationally. It has the potential to become a modern proxy war the likes of which we have never seen in the post-Cold War era.
Russia massively miscalculated a number of critical tactical realities. These include the Ukrainian people's cohesiveness and willingness to fight, the bravery of Ukraine's political leadership, its air defenses' abilities and knack for survival, and NATO and the European Union's resolve.
What's worse, Russia severely overestimated its own capabilities. These included the effectiveness of its own air force, the required quantity and reliability of its standoff weaponry, the quality and resolve of its ground forces, and especially the logistics necessary to support them beyond a single opening blitz. Even the Russian military's ability to deploy realistic planning and effective command and control seemed to disintegrate just days into the invasion. There still appears to be little integration or deconfliction between various field commanders and no single commander leading the war effort.
[...]
None of this is to say Russia's blunt military might is not something to fear or that it couldn't win the conventional conflict it began. Far from it. While Ukraine absolutely has a shot of running Russia out of its country, the odds are still on Moscow's side when it comes to militarily conquering the territory of Ukraine.
While it has been amazing to watch Ukraine hold off Russia in many areas in the country, we are getting a skewed view of the conflict by default. Russia still has significant basic hardware and manpower to throw at its misguided military operation and the leadership in Moscow seems to have no problem tossing more lives and pieces of equipment down into the dark hole it has already dug itself into. But conquering the territory within Ukraine's borders is really just the easy part, and it has clearly proven not to have been easy at all. What comes after would be the true challenge — an insurgency like no other we have seen before — one that Russia has next to no chance of overcoming.
www.thedrive.com/...
Though free weaponry has been forthcoming from a myriad of sources, some notable deliveries that so far have not materialised showcase the limitations of foreign military aid. Perhaps most poignantly, NATO's internal discord over gifting (Polish) MiG-29 fighter aircraft to bolster the Ukrainian Air Force has become somewhat of a public fiasco. The dissent is understandable however, as nations are weighing the degree of their political resolve and what can realistically be delivered in the face of the most important question of all: What are the weapons that Ukraine needs?
While the concept of military support, especially against a major adversary such as Russia, will generally conjure images of rows of main battle tanks, advanced air defences and even fighter jets roaring into the scene, most aid has taken the more demure form of infantry weapons and equipment. One very practical reason that this has been the case is the fact that the recipient operates largely ex-Soviet equipment, and is therefore unfamiliar with what many of Ukraine's supporters can offer it. The advantage of infantry weaponry, and in particular those types that are mainly being delivered, is that they require only marginal training to achieve familiarity and to be able to use them effectively. This requirement essentially confines military aid to that equipment that is either easy to use, or that Ukrainian operators already have experience working with.
[...]
With the Russian military reeling from the incredibly forceful opposition encountered in its one-time vassal, and Ukrainians feeling more strain than ever from the increasingly desperate attacks on its defences and civilian infrastructure, this is the critical point in time where new deliveries of certain types of weaponry could alter the course of history. As the very meaning of a sovereign nation state is contested in the war that never should have been, and Ukraine appeals to its allies, but one question remains: Which nations will answer the call?
www.oryxspioenkop.com/...
Russian State Television Blames 'Ukrainian Nationalists' For Levelling Of Mariupol
In the months before Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, an oligarch with Russian ties allegedly paid for locals to paint swastikas around Kharkiv, sources say. The effort, according to the sources, was part of a false flag operation to exaggerate Ukraine’s Nazi presence at a time when Putin was using it as a pretext for war.
The alleged plot, according to multiple sources, involved Pavel Fuks, a real estate, banking, and oil magnate who, the sources claim, was co-opted by Russian security forces to participate. Through intermediaries, Fuks allegedly offered between $500 and $1,500 for street level criminals to vandalize city streets with pro-Nazi graffiti in December, January, and February.
www.rollingstone.com/...
After Ukraine has won over Putin, Ukraine is facing a brave new world. A massive reconstruction of the whole country will be needed, but thanks to frozen Russian central bank reserves of some $400 billion that the G-7 countries can confiscate there will be plenty of funds to rebuild Ukraine. The G-7 will not release these funds for free. They will require that Ukraine carries out the judicial and structural reforms that it should have done long ago to minimize corruption. And now Ukraine has all the competent staff it needs.
For Ukraine, this should be the democratic and reform breakthrough that Poland so successfully undertook in 1989. Note that Poland would hardly have been able to do so without sufficient and timely Western financing. Now it should be Ukraine’s turn.
www.kyivpost.com/...
- During the Cold War, NATO had little hope of holding off a Soviet conventional offensive. So we adopted a policy of "flexible response," in which we preserved all options - including nuclear escalation. The *Soviets* wanted to keep it all conventional if possible, of course. /2
- This might seem nuts, but we basically told the Soviets that nuclear use became more probable with Soviet victories, since we would run out of options and we'd intentionally escalate. If you want to understand Putin's threats, it's basically something like that now. /3
- The huge difference, of course, is that NATO assumed it would be invaded and fighting a *defensive* war that made escalation credible. Russia makes these threats basically as a way of getting themselves out of a jam created by their own aggression and stupidity. /4
- But in any case, the problem is that the threat to escalate isn't some insane doomsday rant, it's a threat to induce a lot of chaos and unpredictability and instability, to the point where no one would want to be in that situation and peace would be preferable. /5
- Putin's Russia is now the weaker conventional power. (And how *much* weaker, we didn't know until now.) So Putin may make such threats in order to deter us from clobbering his miserable army. Not because he wants Armageddon, but because he's up shit creek and he knows it. /6
- His best option, obvs, is to make peace and extract concessions from Ukraine. But if we enter the war and what's left of his military gets sent to the hell it deserves, he might see value in trying to scramble the deck with escalatory threats (as he's already doing now). /7
- Nuclear threats, however, could literally blow up in his face. What seems like a good gamble to back everyone down could get out of control when NATO decides to stand firm. With both sides at higher alert, an accident or a panicky misperception could lead to disaster. /8
- This is why it's not "he will or won't." There's a lot of room in between "he's a coward" and "he's a maniac." He could also just be delusional and surrounded by weak men - and nothing suggests this more than the complete Russian pooch-screw we're watching now in Ukraine. /9
- I wrote a book on nukes in 2015. This is the excerpt on the logic of flexible response. Again, think of it now as the Russians, through their own malevolence and stupidity, today being where NATO was 40 years ago. And think hard before hand-waving at escalatory concerns. /10x
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