Even before the invasion of Ukraine began, President Joe Biden did a masterful job of getting the warning out to the world, pulling the members of NATO together, and helping to see that the world presented a united front against Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked aggression. That united front helped take the steps that were absolutely necessary to give Ukraine a fighting chance in this war: A steady supply of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, along with sanctions that crippled Russia’s economy and supply chain.
Those two steps—along with the incredible resistance demonstrated by the Ukrainian people and unexpectedly powerful leadership of the Ukrainian government — was what it took to turn a rout into a stalemate. The persistence of that supply, along with volunteers, pouring into Ukraine has now tipped the wary past a stalemate, to the point that on Friday, there was this report by Reuters, “Russia’s defense ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely ‘liberating’ eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.”
Read this as a public recognition by Moscow that it has lost the attempt to capture Kyiv. Lost the attempt to replace the Ukrainian government. Lost any dream of conquering the whole of Ukraine. And is in the process of losing Kherson and other territories it might have taken not immediately adjacent to the regions it controlled at the outset of the invasion.
Russia is now fighting for a negotiating position. It is murdering people in large numbers just in hopes that the final outcome of this most ill-conceiver invasion won’t be worse than where it started. Except that it will, because even if Russia manages to cling onto Crimea and some section of Donbas, its own economy will be so far down the toilet for the next decade, that it could not be located by an army of plumbers.
This is the situation, as determined by a month of hard fighting, hideous destruction, and outright murder, in Ukraine.
- It was clear, as early as Feb. 26, that Russia could not possibly win this war. The economic damage and the steady losses on the battlefield made that a certainty. Russia’s plan required a fast victory. Without it, they were already losers.
- By March 2, Russia’s obvious organizational and logistical failings made it certain that it could not win in any sense, not even in terms of defeating Ukraine on the battlefield in a head-to-head fight.
- A week later, Ukraine managed to end any sign of Russian advances, bringing the whole war into an ongoing stalemate.
- But as any possibility of a battlefield victory faded, Russia turned to the tactics it had used to reduce resistance in Georgia, Chechnya, and Syria with brutal attacks on civilian populations.
- Cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv were battered into rubble, and Russia made repeated attempts to capture Kyiv, even if that meant destroying it. But the supply of defensive and humanitarian aid remained strong.
- What looked like large areas captured by Russia turned out to be paper thin, the idea that Russia had any sort of second act faded away, and even though the media struggled to make a Russian win seem inevitable, it became increasingly impossible.
- By March 19, Russia wasn’t even trying to advance. It was digging in resist the increasing strength of Ukrainian counter-attacks.
- But if Russia couldn’t win, neither could Ukraine. The weapons they have allow them to blunt any Russian assault, and since they’re operating on home turf, they can stage limited counter-attacks. That doesn’t mean they have what they need to really drive Russia from the battlefield.
- Even as Russia has given up on the idea of capturing Ukraine, it’s continuing to conduct operations of mass murder in order to improve its position at the negotiating table. Meaning that the best thing the U.S., NATO, and Western nations as a whole can do is to end this war as quickly as possible.
- The clear way to do that is not a No-Fly Zone, it’s not sending in NATO troops, and it’s not by matching Putin in waving a nuclear threat. It’s by giving the Ukrainian military everything they need to complete the victory in their own country.
Right now, Russia is still reluctant to make concessions in negotiations because they are playing for position. They want to come out of this war with at least new territories in Donbas, and possibly that much-desired land bridge between Donbas and Crimea that would give them control of the Sea of Azov. They’re trying to win those territories by killing tens of thousands in Mariupol and by reducing border cities like Kharkiv and Sumy.
Right now, the path to the best outcome for Ukraine — on both a military and humanitarian front — is the same: Give them weapons. Not just anti-tank and ant-aircraft weapons. Give them the body armor and other gear needed to fully utilize their infantry. Give them planes and UAVs that can provide air cover to troops on the move and strike at Russian forces digging in to networks of trenches. Give then anything it takes to silence Russian artillery.
If there is a concern about what happens after the war, then don’t give possible offensive weapons to Ukraine. Loan them. Loan them with requirements that they only be used within Ukraine’s borders. Loan then with time limits and send around a truck at the end of the year to haul them home.
Just give Ukraine what they need, right now. It’s the best thing that can be done to end this thing quickly. And ending it quickly is also the best thing that can be done to prevent this war from expanding to other countries, resulting in a larger conflict, or resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths.
President Joe Biden led the way when it came to helping unite the West and preventing Russia from winning this war. Now he has an opportunity to do so again, and make sure that they lose. Quickly.
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 4:21:00 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
U.K. Ministry of Defense update: “Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian Forces falling back on overextended supply lines, has allowed Ukraine to re-occupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 kilometers east of Kyiv.”
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 5:19:55 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A pair of maps to compare and contrast on Friday. The first is supposedly a Russian map, with the colored areas assumedly showing the areas they believe to be in their control.
This second is a map from the U.K. ministry of defense, which apparently, a month into the war, is still showing everything in terms of Russian activity.
There are a few of things to note. First, the UK maps seems to indicate a good deal of forward movement by Russia in the SW near Kherson. However, this is the area where Ukrainian forces have actually recaptured several villages over the last two days. On Thursday, Ukraine appeared to be gathering for a possible push to retake the city. It’s unclear if the UK map represents new information.
Second, the UK map shows areas of Ukrainian very close to Mariupol. Considering the situation there, it would be nice to think this was possible. More practically, these areas could represent the source of the Bayraktar drone which reportedly sank the Russian ship “Orsk” at Berdyansk on Thursday. As shown, the UK map puts areas of Ukrainian control only a dozen or so miles from that strike.
Finally, the UK map actually cedes more area to Russia NE of Chernihiv than Russia itself claims to control. As always … take both maps with a grain of salt and a good understanding of the fog of war.
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 6:53:49 PM +00:00 · kos
The NY Times is citing a Pentagon source to claim that Russia no longer has full control of Kherson. Of course, the article has gone full viral, because it would be great news … if it was true. To be totally clear, the claim is false. At best, it is deceiving. The city of Kherson is under full Russian control. The airport is, according to all official sources, still under Russian control, but being shelled by Ukrainians.
The only way the NYT report makes sense is if the Pentagon source was speaking about Kherson Oblast, the state/county administrative region. And for sure, the fact that Ukraine is challenging the airport, by definition, means that Russia is no longer under full control of the region. It is being contested.
Someone along the chain—reporter, editor, whatever—didn’t realize the distinction, and now this handles the pro-Russian side a great propaganda victory: “Western media says Ukraine is in Kherson, here’s video proving they’re just propaganda!” There’s a reason that the Ukrainian government is careful about making territorial claims, which can be relatively easily verified (unlike equipment losses and killed in action).
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