On the first day of the war, Russia dropped hundreds of paratroopers into Hostomel airport outside Kyiv. They were so confident in holding that position, as Russian convoys set out for the capital from the Belarusian border, that those paratroopers even invited news crews inside to film them taking over. Four hours later, all those men were dead.
On March 1, more Russian paratroopers dropped in on Kharkiv. By then, the city had already been subject to a solid week of battering from artillery and missile systems positioned across the border in Russia. According to the mayor of Kharkiv, there was “practically no area of the city” that had not been damaged by the heavy bombardment, but Russian tanks continued to be destroyed when they attempted to approach the city. So it may have seemed like an ideal time to drop in troops and get things over with. Every one of those Russian paratroopers was killed or captured.
Those are just two minor incidents in what looks to be at least ten assaults on Kharkiv and a like number on Kyiv. Russian forces have even managed to get a few armored vehicles into the outskirts of both cities, and had turned the suburbs around Ukraine’s largest and second-largest cities into dust as they’ve been captured and lost over and over.
Well, Russia has some news for all those Ukrainians who thought they had beaten back Russian attacks. According to a presentation given today by the Russian ministry of defense, they never wanted to capture Kyiv or Kharkiv in the first place. So there.
In what may be the most ridiculous propaganda session ever aired before the public, Russian commanders now claim that everything is going exactly to plan. They meant to lose 15,000 troops and at least 1,800 armored vehicles. Because all of that was just a feint, mean to draw Ukraine’s attention away from the real action. Which was … gaining a small amount of land next to the areas Russia already controlled in eastern Ukraine.
Confirming that this was indeed the news from upside-down land, Russia also claimed that they had avoided damage to civilian infrastructure and avoided civilian casualties. Which would be new to Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Iprin, Bucha, dozens of other towns, and most particularly, to Mariupol. As a side note, Reuters is now reporting that 15,000 people have been shipped out of Mariupol to unknown locations in Russia. That didn’t merit a slide in the Russian presentation.
But the biggest news in the Russian conference, and certainly the largest surprise to Ukraine, is the word that Russia has now destroyed the Ukrainian military. In fact, the details of the slides show that Russia has (not kidding) destroyed "180 out of 148 S-300 and Buk M1 air defense systems” and “300 out of 117 radars.” They’ve not just destroyed the forces that Ukraine has, they’ve destroyed forces that never existed.
What this international display of “I meant to do that” actually means appears to be that Russia is no longer even pretending that it can contend with Ukrainian forces in the middle of the country, and is likely to withdraw its troops to the Donbas in the hopes of holding onto territory there in advance of negotiating an end to the invasion — which is something Russia will definitely want to do before their troops are reduced to hurling rocks at the enemy.
For those Russian soldiers still parked in Bucha, where Ukrainian forces are moving in from the north, east, and west. Or Russian troops trying to hold onto Ukraine, where air defenses have already retreated and Ukrainian forces are moving into the NW suburbs, those briefing can also be read as “Good luck, it was nice knowing you.”
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 7:15:12 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Correction: Apparently it was the Saratov that went down at Berdyansk, with the Orsk being one of the ships that fled the area, Both Saratov (BDK-65) and Orsk (BDK-69) are “Alligator class” large landing ships. Also leaving the area with damage was the Novocherkassk (SDK-46), a Ropucha-class landing ship. Both the Orsk and the Saratov were old ships, dating to the 1960s. Novocherkassk was launched in 1987.
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 7:19:29 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A little update to that last note: With the sinking of the Saratov and damage to the Orsk and Novocherkassk, I now count two (2) functioning landing ships in the Black Sea Fleet. That might be one reason why the Russian plans don’t now seem to include any sort of amphibious assault on Odessa.
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 7:46:36 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
We should also not discount the idea that “recruiting more forces from Georgia” is simply that brand of feint known more commonly as “a lie.” South Ossetia, the part of Georgia that Russia recognizes as a “breakaway Republic,” has a total population of 53,000. They can send their entire military force to Russia in a VW Microbus.
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 7:56:21 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Still trying to wrap my head around the sheer Trump-ishness of Putin’s address today.
"They cancelled J.K. Rowling, the children’s author, just because she didn’t satisfy the demands of gender rights. They are trying to cancel our country, I’m talking about the progressive discrimination." -- Vladimir Putin
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 8:24:03 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
I missed celebrating the one month anniversary of this keen insight from Tucker Carlson favorite, and (not kidding) professional foreign policy analyst, Clint Ehrlich.
Ehrlich’s posts over the last month have not improved. I may have to do a retrospective of “Clint Ehrlich’s War” at some point.
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