I’m going to make this a short diary, because going into any detail means going into too many details and people will lose interest. (Plus, I just lost a large chunk due to a typo, and dKos doesn’t have an undo function. Arrrghh!!!)
Putin regards the breakup of the USSR in 1989 1991 as “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century." Putin’s goal ever since he took power in 2000 has been to restore as much of the old Soviet Union as he can, to bring central and eastern Europe under Russia domination as they were before, and in general to force the world to treat Russia (which has an economy the size of Italy’s) as a superpower equal to any other country on the planet. (See Putin Cares About Only One Thing, and It’s Not Oligarchs and America Thinks the War Is About Ukraine. Russia’s Neighbors Disagree.)
Putin gambled that the bear — the Russian army — would so overawe the Europeans and the former Soviet republics that they would stop trying to resist his restoration of the empire. Instead, he showed the world that the bear is aging, has few teeth and claws, and can be held at bay by a pack of dogs (which is not to denigrate Ukraine in any way).
Now he faces eastern Europeans and former Soviet republics who are no longer in awe of him, are standing up to him, and are actively working to deny him his empire back. Far from being accepted as a player equal to the US on the world stage, he is almost universally reviled and detested, with calls for him to be treated as a “war criminal” getting louder.
But that’s not all. I have to ask how much longer ethnic and religious minorities in Russia proper will sit still under a regime whose effectiveness at using force is under scrutiny. Yes, Putin’s internal security controls are tighter than ever, but people are willing to speak out in spite of the risk, some of his advisors have been put under house arrest for questioning him, a few major figures have quit or tried to. Given censorship controls, we don’t know what’s going on in other parts of Russia, but at some point I expect there will be at least discussions about breaking away from Moscow.
When the old Soviet Union fell apart, the West stood on the sidelines and cheered, slapped ourselves on the back, announced “the end of history” — and generally ignored the chaos and resentment in Russia until long after Putin had ridden those factors to control. (Trump, in his usual incompetent way, has tried to imitate that.) While I can’t predict if or how Russia will split up, I can predict that if we ignore or applaud it this time the way we did the last time, the long-term consequences will be just as bad, perhaps even worse — because the grudge-holders will be able to point to a consistent pattern of the West treating Russia with contempt. And some of those pointers will be holding nuclear weapons.
