After two rounds of fruitless discussions just across the border in Belarus, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are meeting today in Istanbul, Turkey. In advance of that meeting, both sides are trying to position themselves to gain the upper hand in negotiations. In the case of Ukraine, that means fighting to regain every inch of territory as the delegations take their seats. In the case of Russia, that means trying to complete the destruction of Mariupol while pretending that losses in the north were intentional.
In other words, they’re leaving Irpin and Brovary as a good faith gesture. Not because they got their butts handed to them on a platter.
In any case, no matter where events stand on the ground going in, it’s unlikely that negotiators are going to emerge from this round of talks with an agreement. The reason is simple enough: Land.
When Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, he did so on a pretense of being concerned about “de-Nazification” and demilitarization of his neighbor to the west. Since then, it’s seemed clear that Russia does not actually give a damn about either of these items. The de-Nazification statements, in which Putin referred to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s as an “illegal Nazi junta,” were a justification for replacing that government. Now that it looks like Putin has failed in every effort to scare, assassinate, or capture Zelenskyy, he’s willing to wave off that claim.
When it comes to demilitarization, Putin’s position now seem almost as pointless. The negotiations seem to have come down to Ukraine agreeing not to be a part of NATO, but instead gaining some other collection of countries which would guarantee Ukraine’s security and have a legal right, or obligation, to intervene if the country was attacked in the future. It doesn’t really matter if that group is NATO, the EU, or an assortment of eight selected nations, the effect is the same.
If it was just these two points to be hashed out, a cease fire and some form of solution might be underway today. But it’s really the third item where things are almost bound to founder. That third point is Putin’s insistence that he was launching this invasion to “protect” the two “breakaway republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk which were recognized by Russia just hours before sending tanks across the line.
Now it’s clear that not only is Russia going to seek to simply absorb these portions of Ukraine into Russia, it’s trying to expand them. The purpose of crushing Mariupol at all costs is to build a land bridge between the area Russia controls in the Donbas and the previously captured Crimean Peninsula. In addition, Russia is already setting up puppet governments in the captured cities of Melitopol and Kherson, expressly for the purpose of creating more “republics” that Russia can then recognize.
It’s clear that what Putin wants is to ultimately cleave off the south eastern portion of Ukraine, creating a coherent, contiguous block that could be absorbed directly into Russia. This would secure Russia’s control over Crimea, give it complete ownership of the Sea of Azov, and set it up for the next round of funding unrest in what remains of Ukraine. That’s the kind of result that would allow Putin to exult over his victory—even though the value of the area gained wouldn’t come close to the losses generated. It’s also clear that Russia originally intended to create additional “republics” in Mykolaiv and Odesa, except for the messy fact that it failed to capture them. (The same goes for Zaporizhzhia, but that doesn’t mean they won’t ask for it).
This is the one demand that Russia actually cares about. It also happens to be the one demand that Ukraine absolutely will not give them. Because Zelenskyy, and everyone else in Ukraine, recognizes that ceding a single acre of land to Russia for this unprovoked invasion would be seen as a betrayal.
Russia is continuing to attack towns and villages in this area, deliberately blocking previously agreed on humanitarian corridors, depopulating the region by shipping thousands to prison camps in Russia, and launching missiles into government buildings in Mykolaiv as Ukrainian forces try to close on Kherson.
There’s no doubt Ukraine will try to retake the captured towns, but Russia has one significant advantage: Ukraine will try its best to avoid large scale civilian casualties. Russia does not give a f##k. They are trying to set up a region where the only thing that moves is their army and their puppet regime.
Russia wants Ukraine to agree to not just recognizing the land it stole in 2014, but expanding on that theft. Ukraine will not agree. Which makes it very likely that another phase of this war is coming soon, one in which both Russia and Ukraine shift more forces to the south. None of that is likely to change so long as Putin believes he can bludgeon Ukraine into accepting peace at any price.
Tuesday, Mar 29, 2022 · 10:30:38 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Reports circulated earlier that some chemical weapons had been deployed as Russian forces abandoned old positions. However these appear to be false reports. Whether Russia is actually moving away from Kyiv, or just adopting a new defensive line a few miles further from the city remains unclear.
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